What are the chances of Trump winning Pennsylvania again in 2020 Election? (Philadelphia: 2013, assault)

[MarketStEl]

So let me ask you, Danny K:

What are your takeaways about Pennsylvania based on what's been said here?

[Duderino]

Originally Posted by Mr.Retired

Response:
The Conservatives who have had enough of New York City are going to exercise their right to vote as new transplants in PA.
I wouldn't be surprised to see an upswing in Red Votes by as much as 10,000 by election day. Will this be enough for Trump?
Your guess is as good as mine but as far as Pennsylvania remaining Red...... I think the it will only continue to grow.

I'd have to imagine that even NYC-relocatees are still much, much more likely to be left-of-center, so it stands to reason that any substantial in-migration gains for PA from the NYC metro area as a result of this pandemic is very likely to benefit Biden.

[Danny K]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

So let me ask you, Danny K:

What are your takeaways about Pennsylvania based on what's been said here?

I honestly feel that there is tons of work to be done by us Republicans in order to keep Pennsylvania Red in 2020. A number of people on here claim that Clinton was hated in much of the suburban areas and Biden won't get the extreme hate that Clinton got which would likely win him more votes. We probably need to do a lot of campaigning in Philadelphia and the suburbs as well. We obviously will NOT win Philadelphia county, but our goal is to try and shorten the gap a bit, because within PA it is totally by popular vote and not by county. If we can shorten the gap in Philadelphia, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties and try and win the counties of Bucks and Chester, we will be in a great spot. That is really our goal. We might also need to campaign around the suburbs of Pittsburgh and the Allentown/Scranton/Easton metropolitan area as well. There is really a lot of campaigning we still have to do in the state of PA. It is going to be difficult especially with the pandemic around, but we will try our best. The thing we are really most concerned about is how well we perform in Philadelphia and the suburban counties because that will likely be what decides the election for Pennsylvania. PA is worth a lot of delegates and if we win that state and Biden wins Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Arizona, and New Hampshire. Assuming we win 1 district in Maine as well, that will put us both at 269 and the House will vote which favors us republicans. We are really trying to win New Hampshire as well, and also working very hard to keep Arizona.

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by Danny K

I honestly feel that there is tons of work to be done by us Republicans in order to keep Pennsylvania Red in 2020. A number of people on here claim that Clinton was hated in much of the suburban areas and Biden won't get the extreme hate that Clinton got which would likely win him more votes. We probably need to do a lot of campaigning in Philadelphia and the suburbs as well. We obviously will NOT win Philadelphia county, but our goal is to try and shorten the gap a bit, because within PA it is totally by popular vote and not by county. If we can shorten the gap in Philadelphia, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties and try and win the counties of Bucks and Chester, we will be in a great spot. That is really our goal. We might also need to campaign around the suburbs of Pittsburgh and the Allentown/Scranton/Easton metropolitan area as well. There is really a lot of campaigning we still have to do in the state of PA. It is going to be difficult especially with the pandemic around, but we will try our best. The thing we are really most concerned about is how well we perform in Philadelphia and the suburban counties because that will likely be what decides the election for Pennsylvania. PA is worth a lot of delegates and if we win that state and Biden wins Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Arizona, and New Hampshire. Assuming we win 1 district in Maine as well, that will put us both at 269 and the House will vote which favors us republicans. We are really trying to win New Hampshire as well, and also working very hard to keep Arizona.

Be careful there.

Democrats control the House.

From your standpoint, you don't want the election to go into the House. (I'd be okay if it did.)

I really think you're going to have an uphill fight to retake any of Philadelphia's collar counties, which have been trending Democratic over the past few elections, even heavily Republican Chester County and Republican-leaning Bucks (where Democrats have been competitive for some time now). And voters in Delaware County, home of "the last Republican machine in America," just handed Democrats total control of the County Council in last fall's local elections.

The stories I read in the press suggest that Trump's handling of the COVID-19 coronavirus isn't playing well among college-educated suburbanites, and his law-and-order talk isn't grabbing them either, in notable contrast to how this same group of voters responded to similar talk in 1968.

A writer in National Review compared the current outpouring of concern for Black Lives Matter to a religious revival, calling it "the Great Awokening." If that ardor sustains itself into the fall, then your challenge becomes even greater.

And despite some moves Trump has made that unquestionably will make life better for many African-Americans, like the First Step Act and his executive order placing job skills above credentials in considering candidates for Federal employment, the overwhelming majority of Black voters still won't vote for him, though it does appear to me that more will this time than last (and that also could tip Pennsylvania into the R column if you get turnout in the T and the Land of the Forgotten around Pittsburgh high enough).

And I do think this election will largely hinge on turnout. Both sides have fired-up bases now.

[Danny K]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

I really think you're going to have an uphill fight to retake any of Philadelphia's collar counties, which have been trending Democratic over the past few elections, even heavily Republican Chester County and Republican-leaning Bucks (where Democrats have been competitive for some time now). And voters in Delaware County, home of "the last Republican machine in America," just handed Democrats total control of the County Council in last fall's local elections.

The stories I read in the press suggest that Trump's handling of the COVID-19 coronavirus isn't playing well among college-educated suburbanites, and his law-and-order talk isn't grabbing them either, in notable contrast to how this same group of voters responded to similar talk in 1968.

A writer in National Review compared the current outpouring of concern for Black Lives Matter to a religious revival, calling it "the Great Awokening." If that ardor sustains itself into the fall, then your challenge becomes even greater.

And despite some moves Trump has made that unquestionably will make life better for many African-Americans, like the First Step Act and his executive order placing job skills above credentials in considering candidates for Federal employment, the overwhelming majority of Black voters still won't vote for him, though it does appear to me that more will this time than last (and that also could tip Pennsylvania into the R column if you get turnout in the T and the Land of the Forgotten around Pittsburgh high enough).

And I do think this election will largely hinge on turnout. Both sides have fired-up bases now.

Regarding Chester and Bucks County, what you are saying is very true, and yes it is hard and will be an uphill battle.

I definitely hope that we can attract a lot of black voters. Also did you hear about Kanye West running for president? He honestly will not get anywhere at this rate, but we are hoping that he might be able to take a lot of black votes away from Joe Biden. LOL, we are NOT counting on it, but we hope it can help us.

[Danny K]

Originally Posted by MarketStEl

Be careful there.

Democrats control the House.

From your standpoint, you don't want the election to go into the House. (I'd be okay if it did.)

Do you understand how it works in the house, if both are 269 delegates?

Yes democrats control the majority of house seats, but each state counts as one delegate when the House votes. Republicans control more states than the democrats do, when you split it evenly State Wise.

26 States have a majority of republicans in the house. 22 have a majority of democrats in the house. Pennsylvania and Michigan have even democrats and republicans as well as one independent, so they could go either way. So assuming all 26 states vote republican majority and all 22 vote democrat, and then even if PA and MI go democrat, Republicans would still win by 1.

California and New Hampshire for example are both worth 1 delegate if the election moves to the House. So even though the majority of house seats are democrat, Republicans would still be the slight favorites.

Do you understand what I am saying? Did you know that?

Also, during the House elections, it is extremely unlikely for democrats to win more seats. Democrats are favorite to remain in control of the house, but Republicans are favorites to gain a few more seats but not enough to take control. Therefore if the White House election moves to the House, Republicans would likely even be more favorites. Understand?

[selhars]

Why would any one who wants Trump OUT of office, post anything here to give the OP any insight, or meaningful suggestions, whatsoever?

In no kind of contest do I know of do supporters of one opponent help the other. If anything, lull them into over confidence.

[Danny K]

Originally Posted by selhars

Why would any one who wants Trump OUT of office, post anything here to give the OP any insight, or meaningful suggestions, whatsoever?

In no kind of contest do I know of do supporters of one opponent help the other. If anything, lull them into over confidence.

LOL, that is technically why I did not announce that in the original post.

[blazerj]

Originally Posted by selhars

Why would any one who wants Trump OUT of office, post anything here to give the OP any insight, or meaningful suggestions, whatsoever?

In no kind of contest do I know of do supporters of one opponent help the other. If anything, lull them into over confidence.

All we can do is vote. All Danny K can do is suggest to his bosses that on a seldomly frequented sub forum on a PA message board, people said A, B, C. If this is Trump's reelection strategy, good for him.

There is the possibility that Danny K is high up in the campaign, in which case LOL.

BTW, latest polls have Trump losing Texas, so Danny K, you may want to spend time in that forum.

[Muinteoir]

Originally Posted by blazerj

All we can do is vote. All Danny K can do is suggest to his bosses that on a seldomly frequented sub forum on a PA message board, people said A, B, C. If this is Trump's reelection strategy, good for him.

There is the possibility that Danny K is high up in the campaign, in which case LOL.

BTW, latest polls have Trump losing Texas, so Danny K, you may want to spend time in that forum.

LOL, I had the same exact thought. Either he is pulling our leg (more likely, imo), or they are really wasting their time.