What are the chances of Trump winning Pennsylvania again in 2020 Election? (Republic: job market, bankrupt)

[TheProf]

Originally Posted by Danny K

Regarding Chester and Bucks County, what you are saying is very true, and yes it is hard and will be an uphill battle.

I definitely hope that we can attract a lot of black voters. Also did you hear about Kanye West running for president? He honestly will not get anywhere at this rate, but we are hoping that he might be able to take a lot of black votes away from Joe Biden. LOL, we are NOT counting on it, but we hope it can help us.

Fat chance, and I know you're not serious... If your looking at Kanye West as some kind of "leader" among black folks, ... well... The guy hit his head one too many times.

... besides, polls in general are fool's gold. I often think Republicans pump up Dem candidate numbers just to encourage Dem voters to stay home... and it worked, largely, with Hillary, esp here in PA which is normally a Blue state ... When I went out to canvass for Hillary one friend (who worked with me for Obama in 2008) declined telling me... "Why? It's in the bag." I remind her of this every time we discuss Trump's upcoming election, and this time she gets the message.

And it's been proven that Vladimir and his notorious bots were behind a lot of this skewed polls and nefarious robo calls.

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by Danny K

Regarding Chester and Bucks County, what you are saying is very true, and yes it is hard and will be an uphill battle.

I definitely hope that we can attract a lot of black voters. Also did you hear about Kanye West running for president? He honestly will not get anywhere at this rate, but we are hoping that he might be able to take a lot of black votes away from Joe Biden. LOL, we are NOT counting on it, but we hope it can help us.

Kanye take votes from Joe? You've got to be kidding. Like a critic once said about Jesse Jackson, the only thing he knows how to run is his mouth.

Oh, and: I'd forgotten that when voting for President, state House delegations each get one vote. So yes. I still don't see an easy path to 270 for you.

[Duderino]

It was noted upthread that Texas is now considered a battleground state. Let that sink in.

A new poll in deep-red Montana also puts Trump up by only 4% (he won there by over 20% in 2016). MONTANA!

Practically speaking, I just don't see how Trump can even consider expanding his base by attracting any meaningful amount of non-white voters at this point when he's clearly struggling to even re-gain the support he had four years ago.

[Joe_P]

It was noted upthread that Texas is now considered a battleground state. Let that sink in.

Exactly. If the voters are not restricted by voter suppression tactics, he is going to have a very rough election day.

[TheProf]

Originally Posted by Danny K

Hey All,

As someone who is a far right conservative republican, I have been starting to make really detailed predictions on who will win each state between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and the chances, and what makes each candidate the favorite in the different states. So I am a huge Trump supporter, and I believe that Pennsylvania is one key battleground State that could literally decide the election depending on the other states.

Honestly, the 2 bolded portions of the above makes you a pretty scary dude in my book... Just sayin'.

[PhilliesPhan2013]

I'm sure that something similar to what I'm about to state has been said elsewhere in this thread, but I don't think that Trump will carry PA this year. The major differences between this election year in 2016 are that Biden is disliked less than Hillary, and that we've had an opportunity to experience how Trump "leads" this country. In particular, 2020 has demonstrated Trump's lack of ability to lead during a crisis/multiple crises. From coronavirus to civil unrest, Trump has not displayed the traits necessary to lead the United States through bad times. Many of his assertions and statements have been shot down with relative ease using studies, proven facts, his own statements made in the past, and other factors.

In Pennsylvania's case, I don't think that the significance of 2018 can be downplayed: the ENTIRETY of the PA side of Philadelphia's PA-NJ-DE-MD metropolitan area, comprising roughly 1/6th of PA's population, is now blue. Even Delaware County, which has been a Republican stronghold since the end of the Civil War, has flipped blue. Additionally, the bluest areas of the Commonwealth have been growing in population, while the reddest areas have been experiencing population declines. Without the Philadelphia area and the Lehigh Valley, PA would be declining in both population and economic stature. With all of this stated, if an energized Democratic base shows up in force the way we did in 2018, then I can see PA going to Biden (though by slim margins).

As someone who voted for Bernie Sanders (and who originally wanted to vote for Elizabeth Warren), it pains me to consider voting for Joe Biden. He is a moderate who will most likely accomplish nothing major, has said "questionable" things about minorities, is super creepy around women and young girls, and is clearly lacking in mental acuity; however, Trump is worse for this country by a HUGE margin! Because of Trump and the state of this nation, I can honestly say that I am no longer proud to be an American, as this country has become a HUGE embarrassment on the world stage.

[Muinteoir]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

Exactly. If the voters are not restricted by voter suppression tactics, he is going to have a very rough election day.

Shh. Remember, they're "listening." (JK, that is surely a go-to tactic in many states, sadly).

Originally Posted by PhilliesPhan2013

I'm sure that something similar to what I'm about to state has been said elsewhere in this thread, but I don't think that Trump will carry PA this year. The major differences between this election year in 2016 are that Biden is disliked less than Hillary, and that we've had an opportunity to experience how Trump "leads" this country. In particular, 2020 has demonstrated Trump's lack of ability to lead during a crisis/multiple crises. From coronavirus to civil unrest, Trump has not displayed the traits necessary to lead the United States through bad times. Many of his assertions and statements have been shot down with relative ease using studies, proven facts, his own statements made in the past, and other factors.

In Pennsylvania's case, I don't think that the significance of 2018 can be downplayed: the ENTIRETY of the PA side of Philadelphia's PA-NJ-DE-MD metropolitan area, comprising roughly 1/6th of PA's population, is now blue. Even Delaware County, which has been a Republican stronghold since the end of the Civil War, has flipped blue. Additionally, the bluest areas of the Commonwealth have been growing in population, while the reddest areas have been experiencing population declines. Without the Philadelphia area and the Lehigh Valley, PA would be declining in both population and economic stature. With all of this stated, if an energized Democratic base shows up in force the way we did in 2018, then I can see PA going to Biden (though by slim margins).

As someone who voted for Bernie Sanders (and who originally wanted to vote for Elizabeth Warren), it pains me to consider voting for Joe Biden. He is a moderate who will most likely accomplish nothing major, has said "questionable" things about minorities, is super creepy around women and young girls, and is clearly lacking in mental acuity; however, Trump is worse for this country by a HUGE margin! Because of Trump and the state of this nation, I can honestly say that I am no longer proud to be an American, as this country has become a HUGE embarrassment on the world stage.

I completely agree, PhilliesPhan. I really do not want to vote for Biden either. It took me a couple of weeks after Bernie withdrew to accept that I will. I have been for Bernie through it all, but I also liked Warren (despite their silly little tiff). However, this "presidency" is a disaster. I think it would be completely inconsiderate to the people most vulnerable to Trump's incompetency to vote for anyone other than Biden in Pennsylvania.

By no means do we have this in the bag in Pennsylvania. Under no circumstances should anyone abstain from voting thinking so. However, I think all indicators point to a disappointing day for Trump, so long as we do not lose focus. Oh, and so long as Biden does not spew too many gaffes.

[E-Z-B]

This is a good website that shows where polls stand right now. Currently:

Biden: 395 electoral votes
Trump: 132
Tie: 11 (Arizona)

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

[toobusytoday]

Pretty sure I've warned you all a couple of times that comments need to stay somewhat Pennsylvania -centric, so when the conversation turns to Kanye West, BLM or how Texas might turn blue, all of those posts were removed. Back on topic please.

[PghSportsGuy420]

Originally Posted by Danny K

Hey All,

As someone who is a far right conservative republican, I have been starting to make really detailed predictions on who will win each state between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and the chances, and what makes each candidate the favorite in the different states. So I am a huge Trump supporter, and I believe that Pennsylvania is one key battleground State that could literally decide the election depending on the other states.

Trump is not a conservative. He is a Trumpist. He wants whatever is good for him.

He was a registered Democrat until 2008 (wonder what happened that year), and his politics all his life have been completely malleable depending on what the situation is.

The man exhibits no traditional conservative values. He's cheated everyone he's ever done business with, has five children to three different women, and has bragged on the record about committing sexual assault.