What are the chances of Trump winning Pennsylvania again in 2020 Election? (Pittsburgh: employment, buy)

[E-Z-B]

Yeah, with less than 100 days until the election, Biden is up by 11 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

[MarketStEl]

Originally Posted by HereToFarm

Pennsylvania is a moderate/centrist state even in the blue cities. Lockdowns, rioting, masks, abolishing the police, and general disrespect for America are generally unpopular. On top of all of this, Biden is a weak candidate who inspires exactly no one. Pennsylvania is remaining red.

You miss one important element in the equation:

Most Democrats this time aren't voting for Joe Biden because they're wild about Joe Biden. They're voting for him because they believe that ousting Trump is the single most important thing they need to do to save the country.

Biden ended up being the party's choice because not only its Establishment but much of its base believed he wouldn't frighten the horses with talk of socialism. As I noted upthread, neither candidate can win outright on just the votes of their respective bases, and Biden, rightly or wrongly, is seen as better able to draw support from suburban moderates and Republican NeverTrumpers.

Meanwhile, Trump's efforts to appeal beyond his base, such as they are, keep getting undercut by his even stronger effort to whip his own base into a frenzy. (Those ads you see about how "you won't be safe in Biden's America" because he wants to eliminate police funding [false] aren't moving the needle among those suburban moderates who are wedded to neither candidate, but I'll bet his base is eating them up. Looks like you did: most of the voting public doesn't take the phrase "defund the police" literally, and most of the protests after that first weekend have been peaceful; it's only when the police respond with riot control tactics that things get out of hand, and Trump made matters worse, not better, by sending unidentifiable Federal troops into Portland.)

You've already read posts from one left-leaning Democrat here who really can't stand Biden but is voting for him anyway. He's exactly the type of Democrat I'm talking about. I think a lot more Democrats besides him took away that lesson from 2016, and it helps that Biden's ethical and moral baggage is much lighter than Hillary Clinton's was.

And Democrats still hold a registration edge in Pennsylvania.

[villageidiot1]

Originally Posted by HereToFarm

Pennsylvania is a moderate/centrist state even in the blue cities. Lockdowns, rioting, masks, abolishing the police, and general disrespect for America are generally unpopular. On top of all of this, Biden is a weak candidate who inspires exactly no one. Pennsylvania is remaining red.

I'll bet you live in a rural, central PA county.

[DXBtoFL]

It's an extremely volatile year and that is why I take no bets on the outcome of this year's election. The anti-Trump's hatred of Trump is intense and borderline insane, even if I do understand some of the origins of it, but it's gone beyond reasonable to paranoid territory. Trump has done a lousy job as a president and I'd call him a failed leader, but the Democratic leadership is equally lousy and equally failed, and perhaps even more so this year with their lack of any leadership or coherency during the social unrest, which is largely deliberate to avoid offending any prospective voters. It's why Nancy Pelosi refused to condemn the statue topplings even if it was vandalism of public property, and it's why the Democrats continue to turn a blind eye at the violent protesters in Portland even if they are attacking a Federal courthouse. I'm all for peaceful protests and peaceful assembly, but the angry elements of the protests are not peaceful and have destroyed both public and private property and the Democratic leadership continue to turn a blind eye at the astonishing increase in violent shootings in cities across America.

At least it does clearly shows the Democrats have no morals nor principles and stand for nothing beyond power, which makes their attacks on Trump both ironic and corrupt. And there's no question the mainstream media deliberately and overtly frame their narrative deliberately in order to push for a Trump defeat that makes you realize they've lost any objectivity, and once you realize that, you have no confidence in them. The collapse in the trustworthiness of virtually any media sources but particularly the more liberal media sources is sad and equally part of the problem.

Meh. As mentioned, I take no bets. A lot of things could happen between now and November. It could be a Democratic landslide. It could equally be a Trump upset.

[toobusytoday]

Originally Posted by DXBtoFL

It's an extremely volatile year and that is why I take no bets on the outcome of this year's election. The anti-Trump's hatred of Trump is intense and borderline insane, even if I do understand some of the origins of it, but it's gone beyond reasonable to paranoid territory. Trump has done a lousy job as a president and I'd call him a failed leader, but the Democratic leadership is equally lousy and equally failed, and perhaps even more so this year with their lack of any leadership or coherency during the social unrest, which is largely deliberate to avoid offending any prospective voters. It's why Nancy Pelosi refused to condemn the statue topplings even if it was vandalism of public property, and it's why the Democrats continue to turn a blind eye at the violent protesters in Portland even if they are attacking a Federal courthouse. I'm all for peaceful protests and peaceful assembly, but the angry elements of the protests are not peaceful and have destroyed both public and private property and the Democratic leadership continue to turn a blind eye at the astonishing increase in violent shootings in cities across America.

At least it does clearly shows the Democrats have no morals nor principles and stand for nothing beyond power, which makes their attacks on Trump both ironic and corrupt. And there's no question the mainstream media deliberately and overtly frame their narrative deliberately in order to push for a Trump defeat that makes you realize they've lost any objectivity, and once you realize that, you have no confidence in them. The collapse in the trustworthiness of virtually any media sources but particularly the more liberal media sources is sad and equally part of the problem.

Meh. As mentioned, I take no bets. A lot of things could happen between now and November. It could be a Democratic landslide. It could equally be a Trump upset.

And how does this relate to the Pennsylvania race?

Please stay on topic for this forum

[DXBtoFL]

Originally Posted by toobusytoday

And how does this relate to the Pennsylvania race?

Please stay on topic for this forum

No bets on how PA votes.

[HereToFarm]

Originally Posted by villageidiot1

I'll bet you live in a rural, central PA county.

I live in Pittsburgh, which hasn't had a Republican Mayor since before WWII. Until Trump ran in 2016, I had never seen visible support for a Republican candidate here. Ever. Hillary still won the majority of the neighborhood (60/40 split), but Trump's support has increased since then as the Democratic party has veered farther and farther Left since then.

Again, most people here are moderates. The type of Democrats here are the union and labor types; "abolish the police, let the rioters riot, and open the borders" coming out of the DNC just doesn't sell well here. People are PISSED at the Governor over the COVID-19 response, PISSED at the Mayor for the Leftist pandering while more pressing local issues go ignored, and above all else, PISSED about the rioting earlier this summer. If the Democrats are THIS unpopular in my blue neighborhood, then they are in trouble. Red landslide incoming (not just for Trump, but for state and local races, too).

[Joe_P]

"abolish the police, let the rioters riot, and open the borders" coming out of the DNC just doesn't sell well here

The DNC isn't saying that.

FFS kid.

PISSED at the Mayor for the Leftist pandering while more pressing local issues go ignored

Americans are PISSED that trump and the GOP have been are to the extreme right and live in conspiracy theories, including the pandemic.

Now thanks to their incompetence, we are sitting in late July with terrible numbers.

Millions of parents are PISSED because opening schools isn't safe or tenable.

Yet trump, his profiteer hack DeVos and the rest of the GOP are pushing schools to open - and have stated that that they don't care about the science.

They are extreme and incompetent.

[HereToFarm]

Originally Posted by Joe_P

Millions of parents are PISSED because opening schools isn't safe or tenable.

Even the CDC supports opening the schools back up. In fact, I strongly recommend reading their position on the matter since we are advised to "listen to the medical experts."

"The best available evidence from countries that have opened schools indicates that COVID-19 poses low risks to school-aged children, at least in areas with low community transmission, and suggests that children are unlikely to be major drivers of the spread of the virus. "

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...g-schools.html


But going back to the main topic, we've got a Defund the Police bill going through Pittsburgh City Council right now. The local media expects it to pass. Yes, this is indeed what the elected Democrats are pushing, and no, it's not going over well in my blue neighborhood. Sane people in both parties don't want to lose their police services. It's going to have an effect in November.

[Danny K]

Originally Posted by HereToFarm

I live in Pittsburgh, which hasn't had a Republican Mayor since before WWII. Until Trump ran in 2016, I had never seen visible support for a Republican candidate here. Ever. Hillary still won the majority of the neighborhood (60/40 split), but Trump's support has increased since then as the Democratic party has veered farther and farther Left since then.

Again, most people here are moderates. The type of Democrats here are the union and labor types; "abolish the police, let the rioters riot, and open the borders" coming out of the DNC just doesn't sell well here. People are PISSED at the Governor over the COVID-19 response, PISSED at the Mayor for the Leftist pandering while more pressing local issues go ignored, and above all else, PISSED about the rioting earlier this summer. If the Democrats are THIS unpopular in my blue neighborhood, then they are in trouble. Red landslide incoming (not just for Trump, but for state and local races, too).

Thanks for bringing this up. If you actually live in Pittsburgh, this is huge. If the democrats lose a a fair amount of voters in Pittsburgh, then they are losing the state. They really need Philadelphia and Pittsburgh at the very least, as well as Delaware and Montgomery counties. That is at the very least.