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Old 06-11-2020, 03:56 PM
 
Location: Germantown, Philadelphia
7,015 posts, read 3,368,080 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wanderer34 View Post
No, Philadelphia and Baltimore is dissimilar with the exception of row homes. Philadelphia is way more of a mini-NYC than it ever will be like Baltimore.

NYC and Philadelphia has similar diversity. Both cities have a Chinatown, both cities have large black populations, both cities have ethnic whites (Italians, Jews, Irish, Polish, etc.), and both cities have large Puerto Rican and Dominican populations. Baltimore can only claim to have a larger black concentration (over 60%), and a smaller ethnic white population. It's Latino and Asian populations are minuscule at the most.

Oh, and the fact that both Philadelphia and NYC flank the stat of NJ, with North Jersey being a part of the NYC area while South Jersey being a part of Philadelphia's orbit. Baltimore has absolutely no claim to NJ, and when people talk about the DMV area, it's referring to the DC are, not Baltimore!



It would be very astonishing considering that Chicago has traditionally be known as "the Second City" for almost a century due to Chicago being the second largest city (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1890_U...#City_rankings) from
1890 to 1980 when Los Angeles took the second city title from Chicago and nowadays, it looks like Houston is going to be number three if not by the end of 2020, someday within this decade since Houston has positive net growth while Chicago looks to reel into stagnancy and eventual population decline.

But even though the black population seems to increase, especially with rising Caribbean and African populations, I see the Latino populations from Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and Brazil, Colombia, and Venezuela being way more robust in the next two decades, to the point where the black and Latino populations equal each other out, similar to NYC. I do however see the Mexican population declining because of the fact that many Mexicans in the city have come here illegally to be honest and if Trump were to be reelected (which is inevitable), the Mexican wave which hit the Northeast, will only be a memory, as many people who are either first generation Mexican-Americans or of Mexican descent born here will have no choice but to go back to Mexico.



I still remember venturing into Fishtown as late as the 2000s and remember hardscrabble neighborhoods before the SugarHouse, the Piazza at Schmidt's, and many other projects were even thought of. Nowadays, they're considered the hottest neighborhoods in the city, if not America (hello South Beach, Venice, and Tribeca). The same grim days that you recalled from the 60s to no later than the 90s sounds just about the same as NYC when it suffered it's brief population decline starting in the 60s and ending in the 90s, with the nadir starting in 1980, when not just the city, but the state of NY suffered a population decline which led NY state only decline on record (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Yo...te)#Population), resulting in the loss of a colossal five congressional seats in 1983. A decade prior, NY lost it's title to CA of being the largest state in the Union.

I'm still a booster to the city, however, even so, we do have our similarities. I still wish Philadelphia was more like a Chicago, a SF, or a Boston when it comes to retaining major businesses, as the city of Philadelphia has the highest business tax policies amongst major American cities, as well as a more efficient mass transit city, in which Philadelphia contracted it's old rail system thanks to SEPTA (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEPTA_..._diesel_routes) while Chicago, the Bay Area, and Boston had continued running their commuter rail systems as a benefit for commuters who lived outside the city limits regardless of profit or loss. Finally, there's the American Commerce Center (https://www.facebook.com/dee.arch.18...15731316836153), which could've attracted another major employer to Philadelphia. It was the best chance to get this project off in 2008, but the city and state are practically peons to Comcast, and while the Schuylkill Yards proposal is fantastic, I'm not holding my breath for the final project, as I'm also wondering leaving the city, but I'm going overseas to paradise, not another American city!!!

Wow!!! At the same year the MOVE bombings happened, huh? Sorry to hear that!



While I can agree that the lack of upkeep is the reason why the housing stock looks like crap, I can also agree that I'm not in full accordance with the newer houses that are being erected in places like West Philly, and even places such as Kensington. Don't get me wrong, I like the never homes, but it has to be in a condition where the neighborhood is completely bombed out. Also, I don't like full displacement of people who had lived there for most of their lives, if not generations. I'd rather see South Philly remain Italian, Port Richmond remain mostly Polish, Kensington remain Puerto Rican and Dominican, and North Philly remain black, then see Philadelphia devolve into a SF, where there's no remnants of a stable ethnic neighborhood left!!!
A couple of nits to pick with this post:

Nothing about Donald Trump's re-election is inevitable. The current polls notwithstanding, it's probably more likely than not, but a lot of the public has soured on how he handled both COVID-19 and the George Floyd protests, and if that mood holds into November (which it might if the recovery isn't V-shaped or COVID spikes again, as it already is doing in the states that rushed to reopen plus those on the Pacific coast), then he is actually likely a goner, for if most people answer the Ronald Reagan question — "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" — in the negative, then the incumbent usually gets tossed.

The reason SEPTA truncated its diesel commuter services in 1984 is because that was the year the Commuter Tunnel opened, with Market East (now Jefferson) Station replacing the Reading Terminal directly above it. Since the tunnel has no forced ventilation, you can't run diesel trains through it on a regular basis, so all of the non-electrified service that ran out of the Reading Terminal got axed. Now, SEPTA could have done things differently and kept some RDCs on hand to run beyond the end of electrification, but that would have turned one-seat rides into two-seat rides. (Not that this doesn't happen elsewhere: there are places on both the Metro-North and Long Island railroads in the New York region where riders change from electrified trains to diesel-hauled ones.) Dual-mode diesel/electric locomotives make one-seat service into this territory possible, however, and I hope someone at SEPTA considers buying some for the future.
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Old 06-16-2020, 05:33 AM
 
153 posts, read 241,299 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
A couple of nits to pick with this post:

Nothing about Donald Trump's re-election is inevitable. The current polls notwithstanding, it's probably more likely than not, but a lot of the public has soured on how he handled both COVID-19 and the George Floyd protests, and if that mood holds into November (which it might if the recovery isn't V-shaped or COVID spikes again, as it already is doing in the states that rushed to reopen plus those on the Pacific coast), then he is actually likely a goner, for if most people answer the Ronald Reagan question — "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" — in the negative, then the incumbent usually gets tossed.
VERY EASY FOR YOU TO SAY!!! Listen, I'm not fan of Donald Trump the president, but if Biden continues to sputter and sag his way through the election, then it's going to look like Trump will practically get this election. Plus, nowadays, I don't even trust the polls, especially since those same polls forecasted a Hilary Clinton victory in 2016!!!

Also, the COVID-19 quarantine is more of a local and state matter than a federal one. Mayor Deblasio of NYC has gotten a lot of heat for not preparing for the coronavirus. Governor Cuomo less so. Also in NJ, the last times I've seen Governor Murphy with President Trump, all I can say is the man look exhausted and defeated, and I can understand Gov Murphy has no choice but to manage NJ and take the losses the same way Deblasio and Cuomo had to deal with their losses, but next year is an election year, and I can see Murphy being beat by whoever the NJ GOP places in the gubernatorial slate, ditto for Lamont in CT. The Nutmeg State has been losing population as well as jobs and employers for over a decade and somebody has to suffer the brunt.

And don't even talk about Gov Whitmer of MI and Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey. Both of them are one and done and this is coming from a registered Democrat voter. The only states I can see sticking with the Dems are NY, MA, IL, and CA. MN seems to be tilting GOP after those riots in the Twin Cities, likewise WI, MI, and OH. PA, NJ, FL and even CT look very purple, meaning those states could really be the true bellwethers in future presidential elections.

I can be in accordance, however in how Trump handled the George Floyd riots. The man is dead and the least Trump could've don't was shown some respect to the family, however Trump talked in the third person and this is why a lot of people are salty because it's not what George Floyd wanted because had he lived, none of these riots would've happened.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
The reason SEPTA truncated its diesel commuter services in 1984 is because that was the year the Commuter Tunnel opened, with Market East (now Jefferson) Station replacing the Reading Terminal directly above it. Since the tunnel has no forced ventilation, you can't run diesel trains through it on a regular basis, so all of the non-electrified service that ran out of the Reading Terminal got axed. Now, SEPTA could have done things differently and kept some RDCs on hand to run beyond the end of electrification, but that would have turned one-seat rides into two-seat rides. (Not that this doesn't happen elsewhere: there are places on both the Metro-North and Long Island railroads in the New York region where riders change from electrified trains to diesel-hauled ones.) Dual-mode diesel/electric locomotives make one-seat service into this territory possible, however, and I hope someone at SEPTA considers buying some for the future.
Hopefully, but then again, I'm not holding my breath for service to come back in another ten years. I figured that SEPTA would make the amends to bring back service to Reading, Allentown and especially West Chester, but sending funding to SEPTA to do these "studies" is akin to flushing millions and millions of dollars down the toilet, and by the end of this decade, cities like Miami, Dallas, Houston, and even Phoenix and Denver will already have a more state of the art mass transit system while Philadelphia will continue to have the same service we have today. A TOTAL BUMMER!!!
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Old 06-16-2020, 06:07 AM
 
Location: Germantown, Philadelphia
7,015 posts, read 3,368,080 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wanderer34 View Post
(major snippage)

I can be in accordance, however in how Trump handled the George Floyd riots. The man is dead and the least Trump could've don't was shown some respect to the family, however Trump talked in the third person and this is why a lot of people are salty because it's not what George Floyd wanted because had he lived, none of these riots would've happened.



Hopefully, but then again, I'm not holding my breath for service to come back in another ten years. I figured that SEPTA would make the amends to bring back service to Reading, Allentown and especially West Chester, but sending funding to SEPTA to do these "studies" is akin to flushing millions and millions of dollars down the toilet, and by the end of this decade, cities like Miami, Dallas, Houston, and even Phoenix and Denver will already have a more state of the art mass transit system while Philadelphia will continue to have the same service we have today. A TOTAL BUMMER!!!
Your point about the polls is very well taken, and I don't know whether there are now non-response issues that could be causing the pollsters to miss a swath of the electorate the way they missed one four years ago. But they were pretty accurate about the 2018 elections, and Trump is no longer an unknown, untested quantity. There are anecdotal reports like the one I read about a month and a half ago about a huge Trump supporter in one of the south-central Pennsylvania counties; he had a huge Trump-Pence sign on the wall of his office in the center of the town he lived in. Then, one day, suddenly and without fanfare, the sign just disappeared.

His base has doubled down on him, but I don't think we can say the same about the other people who voted for him (and there are lots of those; Trump couldn't have won on his True Believers alone in '16 and he can't now). The difference between now and four years ago is that we now have a record to judge him on. Had the double-whammy of COVID and Floyd not struck, he probably would be cruising towards a second term, for the economic winds were definitely at his back, and most people could have answered the Reagan question in the affirmative. The race will probably still turn on who's more fired up to show up at the polls in November.

Moving to SEPTA: You mention "making amends to bring back service to Reading, Allentown and especially West Chester." Agreed on West Chester, since the electrification is already in place; it's only the badly deteriorated track that led to suspension of service beyond Elwyn in the first place. But as for Reading, were you around here for the whole "Schuylkill Valley Metro" vaporware project?
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:32 AM
Status: "BLACK LIVES MATTER" (set 17 days ago)
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
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Originally Posted by BR Valentine View Post
The funny thing about the notion of Atlanta being the black Mecca is that Atlanta has been rapidly becoming whiter for well over a decade. Black folks are barely a majority now and if current trends hold white folks will eventually end up the largest racial group in the city.

The Atlanta suburbs are the actual black Mecca moreso than the city. Black folks are a large portion of the city’s eastern and southern suburbs and a growing part of the northern suburbs.
Most people don't distinguish between Atlanta city proper and Atlanta metro. It's all "ATL." Stone Mountain? ATL. Decatur? ATL. Clayton County? ATL. Marietta? ATL. That hard distinction between city/suburb doesn't exist down there the way it does in some other cities.
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Old 06-16-2020, 01:38 PM
 
153 posts, read 241,299 times
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Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
Your point about the polls is very well taken, and I don't know whether there are now non-response issues that could be causing the pollsters to miss a swath of the electorate the way they missed one four years ago. But they were pretty accurate about the 2018 elections, and Trump is no longer an unknown, untested quantity. There are anecdotal reports like the one I read about a month and a half ago about a huge Trump supporter in one of the south-central Pennsylvania counties; he had a huge Trump-Pence sign on the wall of his office in the center of the town he lived in. Then, one day, suddenly and without fanfare, the sign just disappeared.

His base has doubled down on him, but I don't think we can say the same about the other people who voted for him (and there are lots of those; Trump couldn't have won on his True Believers alone in '16 and he can't now). The difference between now and four years ago is that we now have a record to judge him on. Had the double-whammy of COVID and Floyd not struck, he probably would be cruising towards a second term, for the economic winds were definitely at his back, and most people could have answered the Reagan question in the affirmative. The race will probably still turn on who's more fired up to show up at the polls in November.
2018 was the polls most exact, but 2020 is a huge exaggeration made by SJWs. No offense, I can understand that there are people who hate Trump, the same way there were people who hated Obama, Bush Jr, Clinton, Bush Sr, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon, LBJ, and JFK. That's the beauty of American politics: you can't please everybody, no matter how hard you try!!!

That mantra I just mentioned was the reason why many people viewed Obama as a "weak" leader. Yes, I liked Obama, but the fact remains that the rest of America saw Obama as pandering and apologizing to the Mexicans, the Chinese, the Arabs, the Europeans, and whoever wasn't American. When Trump got elected, he had to the position of being a "strong" leader. That meant building a wall along the southern border, rescinding NAFTA and crafting the USMCA, placing a ban on countries such as Somalia and Libya, as well as meeting with North Korea, China, and India.

Yes, there are people who don't like Trump, and there may be some who may double down on voting for Trump, but overall, the coronavirus quarantines really rests with the local and state leaders, then with Trump, and even if Trump really wanted to lock up the country, he was still powerless in trying to contain a worldwide pandemic such as the coronavirus so pointing a finger all on Trump for having a high index on COVID-19 cases and deaths anywhere in the world won't stop his reelection chances, especially when Biden is sputtering and sleepwalking his way to the presidency, and let's not forget Ukraine, nor the recent sexual harassment accusations against Biden.

Even though Biden is leading in the polls currently, I just can't bode for Election Day and I feel sorry for Biden considering he served for 44 years of public service, and the fact that he's 78 years old and finally has the Democratic nomination after three fruitless efforts. I personally believe he's being forced to run for president only because the Dems don't have anybody of substance that can really go toe to toe against Trump, even if that candidate was an underdog like Beto O'Rourke. The Dems need younger candidates and if Biden can't get the presidency in 2020, the it's a wake-up call for the DNC to start vetting younger candidates and turning them into formidable candidates (Conor Lamb, Beto, heck even AOC are prefect examples because they're younger) and stop relying on the Bernie Sanders, the Joe Bidens, the Elizabeth Warrens, and even the Kamala Harris'. Yes they have experience, but I'd rather see that experience carefully conducted through the Senate, the House, the Executive branch, and even the Supreme Court, but in the nation's highest office, I'd prefer to see somebody born from 1970-1990 getting that than a dinosaur from the Silent and the Bomber generation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
Moving to SEPTA: You mention "making amends to bring back service to Reading, Allentown and especially West Chester." Agreed on West Chester, since the electrification is already in place; it's only the badly deteriorated track that led to suspension of service beyond Elwyn in the first place. But as for Reading, were you around here for the whole "Schuylkill Valley Metro" vaporware project?
Yes, and the SVM was a major money pit!!! Why spend millions of dollars on studies alone when you could've just placed RDCs from Center City to Reading and Allentown. WHAT A FREAKING WASTE!!!
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Old 06-16-2020, 08:26 PM
 
Location: Germantown, Philadelphia
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Originally Posted by wanderer34 View Post
2018 was the polls most exact, but 2020 is a huge exaggeration made by SJWs. No offense, I can understand that there are people who hate Trump, the same way there were people who hated Obama, Bush Jr, Clinton, Bush Sr, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon, LBJ, and JFK. That's the beauty of American politics: you can't please everybody, no matter how hard you try!!!

That mantra I just mentioned was the reason why many people viewed Obama as a "weak" leader. Yes, I liked Obama, but the fact remains that the rest of America saw Obama as pandering and apologizing to the Mexicans, the Chinese, the Arabs, the Europeans, and whoever wasn't American. When Trump got elected, he had to the position of being a "strong" leader. That meant building a wall along the southern border, rescinding NAFTA and crafting the USMCA, placing a ban on countries such as Somalia and Libya, as well as meeting with North Korea, China, and India.

Yes, there are people who don't like Trump, and there may be some who may double down on voting for Trump, but overall, the coronavirus quarantines really rests with the local and state leaders, then with Trump, and even if Trump really wanted to lock up the country, he was still powerless in trying to contain a worldwide pandemic such as the coronavirus so pointing a finger all on Trump for having a high index on COVID-19 cases and deaths anywhere in the world won't stop his reelection chances, especially when Biden is sputtering and sleepwalking his way to the presidency, and let's not forget Ukraine, nor the recent sexual harassment accusations against Biden.

Even though Biden is leading in the polls currently, I just can't bode for Election Day and I feel sorry for Biden considering he served for 44 years of public service, and the fact that he's 78 years old and finally has the Democratic nomination after three fruitless efforts. I personally believe he's being forced to run for president only because the Dems don't have anybody of substance that can really go toe to toe against Trump, even if that candidate was an underdog like Beto O'Rourke. The Dems need younger candidates and if Biden can't get the presidency in 2020, the it's a wake-up call for the DNC to start vetting younger candidates and turning them into formidable candidates (Conor Lamb, Beto, heck even AOC are prefect examples because they're younger) and stop relying on the Bernie Sanders, the Joe Bidens, the Elizabeth Warrens, and even the Kamala Harris'. Yes they have experience, but I'd rather see that experience carefully conducted through the Senate, the House, the Executive branch, and even the Supreme Court, but in the nation's highest office, I'd prefer to see somebody born from 1970-1990 getting that than a dinosaur from the Silent and the Bomber generation.



Yes, and the SVM was a major money pit!!! Why spend millions of dollars on studies alone when you could've just placed RDCs from Center City to Reading and Allentown. WHAT A FREAKING WASTE!!!
The second and third paragraphs of your response provide an interesting example of the "Rashomon effect." I saw the same things and reached almost diametrically opposite conclusions about Trump. Especially the coronavirus: while you are correct that the states took the lead (and probably should have), Trump spent the runup to the outbreak engaging in magical thinking and calling it a "hoax" designed to derail his election chances (a breathtakingly self-centered analysis), then once he did take it seriously, his news conferences left not only me but many others wondering whether anyone other than Drs. Fauci and Birx were home. At least he had the presence of mind that time not to sack Fauci when what he said undercut Trump's own message.

I'm a Boomer myself, born in the peak year of the Boom, yet I can't say I disagree that a younger generation needs to come to the fore. The trouble was, the younger Democrats who ran just couldn't get traction (I would have loved to see Andrew Yang get some, tbh), and none of the names you mentioned saw fit to toss their hats in the ring this time around.

But I'm going way OT here. About as close as we could get to bringing this back to topic is to talk about the role African-Americans will play in the election in this state, and even that's OT.
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Old 06-16-2020, 10:18 PM
 
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Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
The second and third paragraphs of your response provide an interesting example of the "Rashomon effect." I saw the same things and reached almost diametrically opposite conclusions about Trump. Especially the coronavirus: while you are correct that the states took the lead (and probably should have), Trump spent the runup to the outbreak engaging in magical thinking and calling it a "hoax" designed to derail his election chances (a breathtakingly self-centered analysis), then once he did take it seriously, his news conferences left not only me but many others wondering whether anyone other than Drs. Fauci and Birx were home. At least he had the presence of mind that time not to sack Fauci when what he said undercut Trump's own message.
It's a crazy time, but isn't it ironic that such a pandemic such as the coronavirus would spread worldwide in what's a political year in America??? Yes, Trump has a very huge ego and it does cloud his judgement but even somebody as narcissistic as Trump couldn't stop or slowdown the COVID-19, no matter how hard he tried and the fact that the COVID-19 came directly from Wuhan, China, during a time when it seemed like America was going trough perceived prosperity plus this election year, just makes it too fishy plus too good to be true to derail Trump as some despot when the bottom line is that all the government levels have it's share of the blame, not just Trump and even a global pandemic like the COVID-19 isn't going to fully incapacitate Trump's election chances. The George Floyd uprising in cities like Minneapolis, Chicago, Philadelphia, and New York are more a reflection of those cities, which are mostly liberal Democrat bastions are have absolutely nothing in common with the current Republican Party.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
I'm a Boomer myself, born in the peak year of the Boom, yet I can't say I disagree that a younger generation needs to come to the fore. The trouble was, the younger Democrats who ran just couldn't get traction (I would have loved to see Andrew Yang get some, tbh), and none of the names you mentioned saw fit to toss their hats in the ring this time around.

But I'm going way OT here. About as close as we could get to bringing this back to topic is to talk about the role African-Americans will play in the election in this state, and even that's OT.
Andrew Yang was an outsider in every way. He hasn't held any public office, plus the fact that he's Asian running for president, which I don't have a problem, but a guy like Yang would've had more success running for mayor in a city like San Francisco or Seattle, or even governor in a state like CA, HI, or WA than running for the most powerful political office in the land. Instead, he's an Asian from NYC, and while Asians have had political success in a huge city like NYC (Grace Meng and Peter Liu), as much as people want to be politically correct nowadays, Yang had a much bigger hurdle to overcome than Obama (who had to deal with race), or even Hilary, Kamala, or Warren (gender).

I somehow felt as a Gen-X black voter, even though Yang and myself are from the same generation, his message was pretty flat, IMHO. Yes, he's intelligent and very successful, but I also felt that Yang was trying to portray himself as sort of the Asian, the budget, and the Democrat version of Trump, because he'd use words like entrepreneur and "I know math and I'm smart", and not knocking on Yang, but I felt that he held on to the old tired stereotype of being "Asian and smart" for far too long and that didn't bring in traction plus Yang was silent of Peter Liang, so that definitely didn't score any points with me.

Beto, Buttigieg (the names too damn funny especially since the first four letters spell out "butt"), AOC, Castro was the best the Dems could do in bringing a candidate that's a Gen-Xer in every way, except all the candidates were very liberal and in a country that considers itself centre-right, it's just not gonna fly. The last Democrat candidate who was a true moderate (not Obama) was Clinton, since he was able to reach into southern stronghold like GA, TN, TX, and his home state of AR in 1992 and use them in his victory against George Bush Sr. After that, we hadn't really had a Democrat candidate that was able to reach into conservative, evangelical, populist, or independent factions of the party the way Clinton did. In other words, the reasons why Beto and Buttigieg didn't gain any traction was that all of them regardless of name, ethnicity, and residence were practically preaching the same carbon copy liberalism that people are starting to get tired of.

If Buttigieg had any more moderate ideals (such as trade, the economy, NAFTA, the southern border, and even touchy topics like abortion) like Conor Lamb of Western PA, then Buttigieg would've been a more formidable candidate in this years primary even if Buttigieg was openly gay but he didn't have any qualities that would make a state like MI, WI, MN, or his own state flip back to blue, and you can forget PA or NJ, outside the Midwest, he doesn't have the cache or the resonance of Beto or Bernie.

The real problem with the Democratic Party is that it's failing to attract newer voters by allowing dinosaurs such as Biden, Warren, and Sanders to be the faces of the party while allowing Beto, AOC, and Buttigieg to be the fringe candidates and personalities of the party. Plus, the party is veering so left, it's practically devolved into a fringe party, clearly unrecognizable from even a decade ago. Also, the Democrat candidates need to have tenure before moving to higher office (at least 8 years). This was a major problem for Angel Taveras of Providence, RI, who became the first Dominican and the first Latino mayor in that city's history. After running the city reasonably well, he rushed into the state's gubernatorial election in 2014, with little accolades in his resume. If Taveras would've just stayed another four more years as Providence mayor and been more patient, he would've been able to have even been a US Senator, which is huge considering he would've been the first Dominican to be US Senator, but he used the old and tired Obama formula and it backfired on him. Another political figure that tried to use the Obama formula for success and failed was Kendrick Meek of Miami in 2010.

The Democratic Party in the future is going to have a lot of problems because it has promoted itself as the party of LGBT, the party of women, the party of "diversity", and the party of illegal aliens, when there are LGBT Republicans (Log Cabin Republicans), women overall gave Trump over 60% of their vote in 2016, there had been more minority GOP candidates running since 2016 like Daniel Cameron (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel...cky_politician), John James (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_E._James), and Antwan McClellan of NJ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antwan_McClellan), and Latinos are starting to trend more for the GOP despite a good majority leaning Dem (https://nypost.com/2020/05/30/why-so...o-trumps-gop/; https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...hit-2020-05-2; https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-vote/604882/; https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ron...c-vote-in-2020). The Democrat parts needs a major change if it can't win this election cycle by 2020, meaning it's going to have to bring back those moderate, conservative and independent voters into the fold, or be phased out like the Whig Party of the 1800s!
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Old 06-17-2020, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Germantown, Philadelphia
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Originally Posted by wanderer34 View Post

[point taken on Andrew Yang]

I somehow felt as a Gen-X black voter, even though Yang and myself are from the same generation, his message was pretty flat, IMHO. Yes, he's intelligent and very successful, but I also felt that Yang was trying to portray himself as sort of the Asian, the budget, and the Democrat version of Trump, because he'd use words like entrepreneur and "I know math and I'm smart", and not knocking on Yang, but I felt that he held on to the old tired stereotype of being "Asian and smart" for far too long and that didn't bring in traction plus Yang was silent of Peter Liang, so that definitely didn't score any points with me.
Thanks for outing yourself.

This post really should be reposted over on the Pennsylvania forum in the "Will Trump win Pennsylvania again in 2020?" thread.

I believe that if Trump does win the state again, one reason why will be a rise in black support for him. Over the past month or so, I've met neighbors and near neighbors in my mostly-low-income, overwhelmingly African-American neighborhood here (East Germantown) who are unapologetic and enthusiastic Trump supporters — including one who shares my low opinion of his character, temperament and maybe even ethics.

And one of my closer friends, a half-Dominican, half-African-American man who lives in Yeadon and is more
black-nationalist than I'll ever be, is an even more enthusiastic Trump supporter who has accused me of suffering from TDS. (He's also used a slur that I upbraided him for using when he used it to describe liberals on my Facebook space. I don't insult conservatives, so I'm not gonna let you insult liberals with words like "*******" either. I see the C-D auto-censor considers it enough of a slur to blot it out; it begins with an L and ends with a D.)

(One thing all of these, including you, share: they're all significantly younger than I am - I'm 61. I know that my experience of growing up during the Civil Rights years colors my politics: like most black Americans now living whose living memory stretches back that far, I remember that the conservative movement put itself firmly on the side of the Southern segregationists, and I think it remains too accommodating of white-nationalist types for my comfort.)

And Trump has gone after black votes openly in a way no Republican has since -- well, maybe since Reconstruction but at least since Reagan.

It won't take lots of blacks crossing over to tip the scales - 2 or 3 percent will do. And I can see where he could pick up that many.
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Old 06-17-2020, 03:46 PM
 
Location: North Jackson
2,123 posts, read 3,404,492 times
Reputation: 2895
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarketStEl View Post
Thanks for outing yourself.

This post really should be reposted over on the Pennsylvania forum in the "Will Trump win Pennsylvania again in 2020?" thread.

I believe that if Trump does win the state again, one reason why will be a rise in black support for him. Over the past month or so, I've met neighbors and near neighbors in my mostly-low-income, overwhelmingly African-American neighborhood here (East Germantown) who are unapologetic and enthusiastic Trump supporters — including one who shares my low opinion of his character, temperament and maybe even ethics.

And one of my closer friends, a half-Dominican, half-African-American man who lives in Yeadon and is more
black-nationalist than I'll ever be, is an even more enthusiastic Trump supporter who has accused me of suffering from TDS. (He's also used a slur that I upbraided him for using when he used it to describe liberals on my Facebook space. I don't insult conservatives, so I'm not gonna let you insult liberals with words like "*******" either. I see the C-D auto-censor considers it enough of a slur to blot it out; it begins with an L and ends with a D.)

(One thing all of these, including you, share: they're all significantly younger than I am - I'm 61. I know that my experience of growing up during the Civil Rights years colors my politics: like most black Americans now living whose living memory stretches back that far, I remember that the conservative movement put itself firmly on the side of the Southern segregationists, and I think it remains too accommodating of white-nationalist types for my comfort.)

And Trump has gone after black votes openly in a way no Republican has since -- well, maybe since Reconstruction but at least since Reagan.

It won't take lots of blacks crossing over to tip the scales - 2 or 3 percent will do. And I can see where he could pick up that many.
I'm not seeing ANY uptick in black support for Trump. I predict he will do even worse among blacks than he did in 2016. If you consider Trump saying "What have you got to lose?" as going after black folks... Well...

I think most black people realize after these 4 years that "what we have to lose" is our lives, at the hands of out of control cops, or empowered Dylan Roof types.
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Old 06-17-2020, 05:16 PM
 
Location: Germantown, Philadelphia
7,015 posts, read 3,368,080 times
Reputation: 4480
Quote:
Originally Posted by JacksonPanther View Post
I'm not seeing ANY uptick in black support for Trump. I predict he will do even worse among blacks than he did in 2016. If you consider Trump saying "What have you got to lose?" as going after black folks... Well...

I think most black people realize after these 4 years that "what we have to lose" is our lives, at the hands of out of control cops, or empowered Dylan Roof types.
That wasn't what I had in mind. Did you miss his State of the Union campaign rally, er, address?

That was a naked play for black folks. Everyone he had seeded in the audience to recognize was black.

And all I know was, I knew only one black Trump supporter in the 2016 election cycle. So far this past month and a half, I've met two and had a friend of mine reveal to me that he was a third.

I know the plural of anecdote is not data, but I tend to get around, so I think my encounters signal something. Absolutely not a groundswell, and Biden will get 90-plus percent of the black vote again. But Trump got a bigger share of black voters nationwide in 2016 than Mitt Romney got in 2012 — 8 percent opposed to 6 — and if he gets 10 percent as opposed to 8, that could tip a few close states to him.

I can't find a breakdown of the 2016 Pennsylvania election results by race so can't tell you what share of the black vote in this state he got in that year.
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