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Basic Math:
Illegal Black Market Prices are high. Very high.
Actually legal, natural state AG product prices wouldn't be.
With me so far?
Illegal in excess of $300 per ounce (x16) = $5000 per pound.
Actually legal, fair farm gate price? Try $5 per pound.
The $4995 per pound difference is what the Cartels are about.
Aint' rocket science.Business 101.
--- Beer Hops, a comparable AG product (nature, handling, cultivation, etc)
have a fair farm gate price price for clean picked buds of $3 per POUND
Having grown both in my life, the two are nowhere comparable.
You can grow hops in your back yard unencumbered by nosy neighbors who call the cops and it doesn't take up much space to grow for one's own consumption.
Some hops cost more than you want to imagine and there is no magic "farm gate price" because of such. HOPS
MJ will never be a "farm gate commodity". The 70 year war on it has ensured so.
Before prohibition of alcohol, there were 1000s of breweries in this country, Every village, town and city had their own local brew. How many breweries stand alone these days? All of the little ones were eaten up by the big ones years ago and the local brews went to crap only to be replaced by Bud, Miller, Coors and a few more. They started cannibalizing themselves.
Illegal is why MJ is $300 oz. If you go out to CO you can find mom&pop places who sell for far less. Colombian MJ wasn't $250 lb back when it was brought here - illegally - in bales back in the 70s. $5K lb is what happens when government overreaches and the black market rules.
What if simple coffee and aspirin were only available on the black market? Gasoline? Cases of bottled drinking water? How will you fare?
Location: Subconscious Syncope, USA (Northeastern US)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by armory
Having grown both in my life, the two are nowhere comparable.
You can grow hops in your back yard unencumbered by nosy neighbors who call the cops and it doesn't take up much space to grow for one's own consumption.
Some hops cost more than you want to imagine and there is no magic "farm gate price" because of such. HOPS
MJ will never be a "farm gate commodity". The 70 year war on it has ensured so.
Before prohibition of alcohol, there were 1000s of breweries in this country, Every village, town and city had their own local brew. How many breweries stand alone these days? All of the little ones were eaten up by the big ones years ago and the local brews went to crap only to be replaced by Bud, Miller, Coors and a few more. They started cannibalizing themselves.
Illegal is why MJ is $300 oz. If you go out to CO you can find mom&pop places who sell for far less. Colombian MJ wasn't $250 lb back when it was brought here - illegally - in bales back in the 70s. $5K lb is what happens when government overreaches and the black market rules.
What if simple coffee and aspirin were only available on the black market? Gasoline? Cases of bottled drinking water? How will you fare?
Okay, but -
" Organic grain growers are faced with projections that conventional prices for corn will drop as low as $2-3 per bushel in 2015." Depending on the size of the ears, thats 40 to 60 ears of corn. You get between 2 and 4 ears per plant under optimal growing conditions. The plants take up a lot of room, and nutrients, and the crop needs to be rotated.
Im sure those organic farmers wouldnt mind trying for a 'farm gate' price of $5 per pound for something. If they can work a farmer's market - who knows how much their profits would increase?
Interestingly enough, 100 American Indian tribes are looking into growing MJ. They have the land, and the Feds have given them the go-ahead. Even with a large corp investing and pretty much running the show, its still more profitable (and noble) than running casinos these days.
Having grown both in my life, the two are nowhere comparable.
I disagree. The trimming out of buds in particular.
As to price Oregon AG Dept publishes $2.87/lb as common hops wholesale.
The finished "farm gate" produce is about as close to comparable as you can get.
Or at least in terms of the discussion being offered here.
Quote:
Illegal is why MJ is $300 oz. (and more if really good)
If you go out to CO you can find mom&pop places who sell for far less.
Yeah? How much less? No where near the $5/lb AG product value though... right?
Quote:
MJ wasn't $250 lb back when it was brought here - illegally - in bales back in the 70s.
In the early 70's Mex was $15-20/oz; $40-45 per quarter lb. ~$150/lb
In the later 70's Colombian was $30-35/oz; $60-65 per quarter lb ~ $200/lb
(go ahead... ask me how I know)
Quote:
$5.00 per lb is what happens when...
When you can buy at the farmers market direct from the grower.
Which is it should be but we aren't there yet.
Last edited by MrRational; 04-17-2015 at 06:29 PM..
Im sure those organic farmers wouldnt mind trying for a 'farm gate' price of $5 per pound for something. If they can work a farmer's market - who knows how much their profits would increase?
No doubt of it. Distribution issues aside it's a viable "truck farm" crop.
Quote:
Interestingly enough, 100 American Indian tribes are looking into growing MJ.
They have the land, and the Feds have given them the go-ahead.
I'll be interested to see how this turns out.
**
**
I recently did some rough calculations on the US crop & market value.
I was surprised at how SMALL an actually legal product came out to.
The assumptions I worked from:
1) Use rates, after the initial shake out, would moderate to about ONE ounce per adult -per year.
Clearly some would use more but for various reasons MORE would use less or even none.
I estimated 126,000,000 adult users (@1oz avg each) would buy 7,875,000 POUNDS -per year
2) That decent taste and potency are achievable from open air cultivation.
3) That an open air cultivation crop can yield about ONE pound of clean bud per plant.
4) That planting density, at ~25 feet round, allows for over 1700 plants per acre.
Those 7,875,000lbs /1700ac = 4632 acres; at $5/lb = $39,375,000 (wholesale).
By comparison: Iowa alone grows 31 Million acres of corn; with 3500 ac sweet.
4632ac/640 = 7.24 Sections x4+ = about 30 Quarter Sections.
I DVRed it (last night) but was able to listen at work instead.
They also debuted the first episode of High Profits last night: High Profits
I DVR'd that but didn't see it yet. I did see the show that came on before it, detailing the issues surrounding research and why it's almost impossible to get medical research on marijuana approved in this country...they also had a family who, because of the laws in NJ, had to move to Colorado for their daughter's seizure meds, but could never bring the child back to NJ visit her elderly grandparents, because they aren't allowed to bring her medicine across state lines (even though it's liquid and can't get anyone high because it has very low THC) and she would have hundreds of seizures a day without it.
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