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Old 08-01-2017, 08:14 PM
 
21,430 posts, read 7,464,101 times
Reputation: 13233

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post

So, how are you doing with your stocks and would it make you consider Trump in 2020 if you are doing well?
I am more concerned about Federal Reserve policy. Presidents don't have nearly enough personal influence on the economy.

And remember the old adage ... those who live by the stock market, die by the stock market.
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:18 PM
 
26,512 posts, read 15,092,794 times
Reputation: 14673
Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth View Post
The market rose twice as high during Obama's first 6 months compared to Trump's first 6 months.

S&P 500
1/20/2009 805.22
7/20/2009 951.13
18.1% increase

1/20/2017 2,271.31
7/20/2017 2,473.45
8.8% increase

https://www.google.com/finance/histo...rNAG&start=120

https://www.google.com/finance/histo...mNLdjCeueCpcAI
A) It is easier to rise from a low like Obama inherited, than a high like Trump inherited.

B) The Fed was just starting the biggest Trickle Down policy ever (QE) in US History in terms of sheer dollars and that would push the stock market up. This started immediately after Obama won the election and met with Bernanke.

Quote:
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) doubled in value from November 2008 to October 2014, coinciding with the Federal Reserve Bank’s “quantitative easing” asset purchasing program. After three rounds of “QE,” where the Fed poured billions of dollars into the bond market monthly, the Fed’s balance sheet went from $2.1 trillion to $4.5 trillion (editors note: wow!)......

....As the financial crisis reached a fevered pitch in 2008, the Federal Reserve took to flooding the financial market with dollars by buying up bonds. Simultaneously, interest rates fell dramatically, as bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices. Barnier sees the Fed as responsible for over 93% of the market from the start of QE until today. During the first half of 2013, the Fed caused the entire market’s growth, he said.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-f...194426366.html



My point is, it isn't a fair comparison as the circumstances are completely different. What can Trump do to help the stock market boom? Do more QE Trickle Down and try to out do Obama's record Trickle Down Economic numbers? Fat chance on that, although QE has stopped, all of the money hasn't even made its way through yet.
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:26 PM
 
Location: Long Island
57,317 posts, read 26,245,816 times
Reputation: 15654
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler View Post
Sorry but you are completely inaccurate, the market crashed 10% on the 2 days after the election of Obama because the nation elected Dims to run Presidency, House & Congress....it was already falling because of the policies the Dims running the House & Senate had put in place in Bush last couple of years and then accelerating the fall was the impending election of Obama which sealed the deal.
Well you need to go look up September 29, 2008, better yet post the entire index through 2008. Facts are facts, you don't get to create your own.
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:28 PM
 
Location: Alameda, CA
7,605 posts, read 4,849,003 times
Reputation: 1438
Quote:
Originally Posted by At-Chilles View Post
You're international funds did terribly under Obama because of his strong dollar policy and the dollar's correction out the 3 year YCL.

Those funds /investments are now recovering because the Euro has been on a tear as of late and Trump has openly criticized the strong dollar policy.

Note at the latest FOMC meeting no rate hike? Doubt there will be one at Jackson Hole later this month.

The dollar is due for a bounce anytime now......so watch your account
Last 8 years (2009 - 2016) of Dodge Cox International
47.46 13.69 -15.97 21.03 26.31 0.08 -11.35 8.26
That is hardly terrible.

Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund (DODFX) Fund Performance and Returns
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:32 PM
 
26,512 posts, read 15,092,794 times
Reputation: 14673
Quote:
Originally Posted by At-Chilles View Post
You're international funds did terribly under Obama because of his strong dollar policy and the dollar's correction out the 3 year YCL.

Those funds /investments are now recovering because the Euro has been on a tear as of late and Trump has openly criticized the strong dollar policy.

Note at the latest FOMC meeting no rate hike? Doubt there will be one at Jackson Hole later this month.

The dollar is due for a bounce anytime now......so watch your account
Obama wasn't the only person to preside over massive Trickle Down Economics pushing stocks upwards the past decade or so...many international stock prices did fine.

Shanghai equities roar as China floats QE-lite - Telegraph

https://www.economist.com/blogs/bany...itative-easing

https://www.theguardian.com/business...interest-rates

https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/europes-qe-quandary

Etc...
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:32 PM
 
Location: Alameda, CA
7,605 posts, read 4,849,003 times
Reputation: 1438
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jstarling View Post
A dog would have performed better in Obama's first 6 months.
He had a huge mess to try and get out from under.
The S&P 500 index was up 18.1% in the first 6 months of the Obama administration.
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:41 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,584 posts, read 17,310,316 times
Reputation: 37355
Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth View Post
The market rose twice as high during Obama's first 6 months compared to Trump's first 6 months.

S&P 500
1/20/2009 805.22
7/20/2009 951.13
18.1% increase

1/20/2017 2,271.31
7/20/2017 2,473.45
8.8% increase..........
... And Trump's market outperformed Obama's during the first 70 days, until Mar 11. At that point Obama's market had fallen by 12% and Trump's had gained 5%. Look it up.

So why is the first 6 months all of a sudden all that important?........... It isn't. It's just as arbitrary as my 70 days.

One market "made" money that had been lost. The other is actually creating wealth.
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:41 PM
 
26,512 posts, read 15,092,794 times
Reputation: 14673
Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth View Post
The S&P 500 index was up 18.1% in the first 6 months of the Obama administration.
Yep!

Look at the QE Trickle Down kick in the first 6 months of Obama buying up bonds and helping out the stock market!

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Old 08-01-2017, 08:49 PM
 
Location: Alameda, CA
7,605 posts, read 4,849,003 times
Reputation: 1438
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
A) It is easier to rise from a low like Obama inherited, than a high like Trump inherited.

B) The Fed was just starting the biggest Trickle Down policy ever (QE) in US History in terms of sheer dollars and that would push the stock market up. This started immediately after Obama won the election and met with Bernanke.



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-f...194426366.html



My point is, it isn't a fair comparison as the circumstances are completely different. What can Trump do to help the stock market boom? Do more QE Trickle Down and try to out do Obama's record Trickle Down Economic numbers? Fat chance on that, although QE has stopped, all of the money hasn't even made its way through yet.
As for your "A" response I was responding to a poster who wrote the following.

"Trump has had the job 6 months. So you have to compare with Obama's first 6 months. And Obama had a terrible first 6 months."

Clearly the markets performed better during the first 6 months of Obama's administration than Trump's.

As for your contention that the market is up because of QE increasing the supply of dollars, I would point out that many companies are also doing better. Many have earnings to justify the increased prices being paid. So it is not just dollars chasing a limited number of stocks. If the PE ratio had gone sky high then there might be some merit to your contention.
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Old 08-01-2017, 08:56 PM
 
26,512 posts, read 15,092,794 times
Reputation: 14673
Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth View Post
As for your "A" response I was responding to a poster who wrote the following.

"Trump has had the job 6 months. So you have to compare with Obama's first 6 months. And Obama had a terrible first 6 months."

Clearly the markets performed better during the first 6 months of Obama's administration than Trump's.

As for your contention that the market is up because of QE increasing the supply of dollars, I would point out that many companies are also doing better. Many have earnings to justify the increased prices being paid. So it is not just dollars chasing a limited number of stocks. If the PE ratio had gone sky high then there might be some merit to your contention.

Yes, Obama's first 6 months with the stock market were great - QE made the Fed's balance sheet practically triple!!!

Earnings are up for many, but revenue has been lackluster for many during these QE Trickle Down years....Automation, outsourcing, less compensation to workers etc...yippee...I bet that will be great over the next two decades.

Are you actually disputing the notion that QE has helped boost the stock market? You know too much about this subject and have too good of a reputation to push a fairy tale for partisan purposes.
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