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View Poll Results: Do you support giving Ukraine F-16s
Yes 190 39.34%
No 247 51.14%
Unsure 46 9.52%
Voters: 483. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-16-2022, 08:53 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,585 posts, read 17,310,316 times
Reputation: 37356

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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Putin's Posse is my term for the Russian propagandists in this forum. Like this sprawling homeowner, who has been silent for months, comes storming back with dozens of posts in the last couple of days. They tend to take turns. Someone may need to check the IP's.
I like your term better than my own "Rooskateers", so if you don't mind I'll use your term.


The price cap on oil has taken effect:
The first test of the price cap is whether Russia can ship all of its crude oil without G7 services. Early answer: No, it cannot. India-bound cargoes are still using G7 ships and insurance, with signed attestations. The result? Russian oil is trading at massive ~$40 discount.
China and India are taking advantage of incredibly cheap, $35 oil. Part of the problem for Russia is, oil wells cannot be turn on and off like light switches. The oil must be kept flowing. If the flow stops, it can take many weeks to get it started again.
Russia is selling oil at cash flow prices. That's like treading water while waiting for help.
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Old 12-16-2022, 10:12 PM
 
2,157 posts, read 1,445,509 times
Reputation: 2614
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
The first test of the price cap is whether Russia can ship all of its crude oil without G7 services. Early answer: No, it cannot. India-bound cargoes are still using G7 ships and insurance, with signed attestations. The result? Russian oil is trading at massive ~$40 discount.
China and India are taking advantage of incredibly cheap, $35 oil. Part of the problem for Russia is, oil wells cannot be turn on and off like light switches.
Russia is selling oil at cash flow prices. That's like treading water while waiting for help.

What you wrote is inaccurate words on a page. Show the link of $35 dollar oil. I don't believe that is accurate. Otherwise, it is more disinformation.
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Old 12-17-2022, 04:38 AM
 
3,228 posts, read 1,608,633 times
Reputation: 2888
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprawling_Homeowner View Post
By your logic, Ukraine is responsible for what its own forces have done.

Ukrainian troops murdered more than 10,000 ethnic Russians in the Donbass since 2014. Moscow asked Kiev to stop this; Kiev refused.

Ukrainian forces have committed war crimes against surrendered Russian troops.
...
How many of those “ethnic” Russians were Russian soldiers? (Answer: 6,500)

Did Kiev ever ask Russia to stop killing people in their country? Did they refuse?

The UN report from Jan 2022 says:

https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default...orr%20EN_0.pdf

4,400 Ukrainian soldiers
6,500 Russian and pro-Russian militants
3,404 civilians (includes 298 passengers of MH17 shot down in 2014 by Russian militants)

Civilian deaths by year
2014 -- 2084
2015 -- 954
2016 -- 112
2017 -- 117
2018 -- 55
2019 -- 27
2020 -- 26
2021 -- 25

Here also is a UN report from Dec 2022 concerning Russian war crimes in the beginning of the invasion:

https://ukraine.un.org/index.php/en/...russian-troops

Quote:
Kyiv, 7 December 2022 – In the initial weeks of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian armed forces summarily executed or carried out attacks on individuals leading to the deaths of hundreds of civilians, the Head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Matilda Bogner said today. A UN Human Rights report based on the work of the Mission details how Russian troops killed civilians in Ukrainian towns and villages across Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions of Ukraine from 24 February until 6 April 2022.

[…]
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Old 12-17-2022, 06:48 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,585 posts, read 17,310,316 times
Reputation: 37356
Quote:
Originally Posted by ticking View Post
What you wrote is inaccurate words on a page. Show the link of $35 dollar oil. I don't believe that is accurate. Otherwise, it is more disinformation.
You're joking.
You wouldn't believe it if I showed you a hundred links! But here ya go...
Quote:
Reuters calculations showed discounts for Urals oil at Russia's western ports for sale to India under some deals have widened to $32-$35 per barrel when freight is not included in the price.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...et-2022-12-14/


Remember that $60 price cap that so enraged Russia?..... They now wish they could get $60!
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Old 12-17-2022, 07:38 AM
 
51,655 posts, read 25,850,631 times
Reputation: 37895
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
You're joking.
You wouldn't believe it if I showed you a hundred links! But here ya go...

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...et-2022-12-14/


Remember that $60 price cap that so enraged Russia?..... They now wish they could get $60!
Got to wonder what's up with those who demand links to information that is easily available on the internet.
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Old 12-17-2022, 07:57 AM
 
2,157 posts, read 1,445,509 times
Reputation: 2614
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
You're joking.
You wouldn't believe it if I showed you a hundred links! But here ya go...

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...et-2022-12-14/


Remember that $60 price cap that so enraged Russia?..... They now wish they could get $60!
I read your link and you have misrepresented what the link says. It does not state that Russia is selling oil at $35 dollars a barrel. It states in SOME deals Russia has had as much as $32-35 dollar discount when freight is not included in price.
I've provided a Reuters link from December 16 which is written more clearly and states the price of Russia Ural blend oil as around $57 which is believable verses your $35 dollar statement.



Russia's Urals oil averaged $57.49/bbl in past month, below price cap

The average price for Russia’s Urals oil blend was $57.49 per barrel between Nov. 15 and Dec. 14, Russia’s Finance Ministry said late on Thursday, below the Western cap of $60.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idCAKBN2T00U3

Quote:
Originally Posted by GotHereQuickAsICould View Post
Got to wonder what's up with those who demand links to information that is easily available on the internet.
What are you 'wondering' about?
I've corrected the statement made earlier. No link has been provided that stated Russia was selling oil at $35 a barrel. Poster makes it seem he can provide a 100 links clearly stating Russia was selling oil at $35 a barrel. I don't see it.
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Old 12-17-2022, 08:14 AM
 
Location: Wisconsin
1,081 posts, read 549,603 times
Reputation: 964
Quote:
Originally Posted by ticking View Post
I read your link and you have misrepresented what the link says. It does not state that Russia is selling oil at $35 dollars a barrel. It states in SOME deals Russia has had as much as $32-35 dollar discount when freight is not included in price.
I've provided a Reuters link from December 16 which is written more clearly and states the price of Russia Ural blend oil as around $57 which is believable verses your $35 dollar statement.



Russia's Urals oil averaged $57.49/bbl in past month, below price cap

The average price for Russia’s Urals oil blend was $57.49 per barrel between Nov. 15 and Dec. 14, Russia’s Finance Ministry said late on Thursday, below the Western cap of $60.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idCAKBN2T00U3


What are you 'wondering' about?
I've corrected the statement made earlier. No link has been provided that stated Russia was selling oil at $35 a barrel. Poster makes it seem he can provide a 100 links clearly stating Russia was selling oil at $35 a barrel. I don't see it.
The "cap" was silly. It was already selling below that. It basically told Russia, "you can sell it for more if you want to, we'll let you."

It's like the people making up these "punishments" have no connection to the real world.
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Old 12-17-2022, 08:53 AM
 
3,228 posts, read 1,608,633 times
Reputation: 2888
Girkin declares the invasion a strategic defeat for Russia…


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMXI8t-zBl8
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Old 12-17-2022, 09:02 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,585 posts, read 17,310,316 times
Reputation: 37356
Quote:
Originally Posted by CtrlEsc View Post
The "cap" was silly. It was already selling below that. It basically told Russia, "you can sell it for more if you want to, we'll let you."

It's like the people making up these "punishments" have no connection to the real world.
Well, not really.
The open price was running about $70-$80 per barrel. Now it's at $74.50. So $60, which historically is pretty low, was a pretty good cap.
On Dec 5th, when it took effect, oil was actually going for $77. As was shown, Russia cannot even get that much - theirs is being discounted by something like $35. The problem for Russia is, they can't shut off their wells. If they do it would take many weeks to restart them. And everyone knows this. Tickler wants to include November prices in his argument, and he can do that, but that was before the price cap, which changed everything for Russia.
On 2/24, when Russia invaded, they could actually get $96 for their oil. Now, they get far less than half that, and volume is decreasing, too!


I think people that dream up these price caps know an awful lot about what they are doing. And what they are doing is inflicting real economic damage on Russia, who will never be able to recover. Not ever.
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Old 12-17-2022, 10:41 AM
 
2,157 posts, read 1,445,509 times
Reputation: 2614
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
On Dec 5th, when it took effect, oil was actually going for $77. As was shown, Russia cannot even get that much - theirs is being discounted by something like $35. The problem for Russia is, they can't shut off their wells. If they do it would take many weeks to restart them. And everyone knows this. Tickler wants to include November prices in his argument, and he can do that, but that was before the price cap, which changed everything for Russia.
.
You misrepresented oil being sold for $35 a barrel and are now rephrasing, which is fine. I've pointed out your error and you are slowly trying to correct it without acknowledging the earlier misstatement.
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