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Russia can't win a conventional or nuclear war against NATO through invasion. NATO has 4 times the population and 10 times the GDP. Russia knows this.
You worry about aggression leading to more aggression. NATO has something like 90% of the world's foreign military bases while telling China they can't make foreign military bases. NATO has ruined many Muslim countries. NATO is occupying a third of Russia's ally Syria and pillaging oil and wheat. On and on.
I'm not saying it would be rational of Russia to do that, I'm saying Russia is not rational. If they're allowed to win their consolation prize in Ukraine (because they already lost their main prize, the NATO thing), and then be allowed time to rebuild/restructure their military, their next moves also would not be rational...but are predictable.
I'm not saying it would be rational of Russia to do that, I'm saying Russia is not rational. If they're allowed to win their consolation prize in Ukraine (because they already lost their main prize, the NATO thing), and then be allowed time to rebuild/restructure their military, their next moves also would not be rational...but are predictable.
Russia is actually VERY rational in what it's doing, and easy to predict/understand.
It's UKRAINE ( and its government) is irrational from 2014 on, thinking/hoping that NATO would bring troops into Ukraine and would fight Russia FOR REAL on Ukraine's behalf.
And that's why, in delusional mind of Ukrainian Nationalists, Russia was "irrational" while attacking Ukraine, because - obviously ( for them, the Ukrainians that is,) Russia wouldn't dare to fight with the "super-power" out there, the US.
But Russians KNEW what it was going to be all along, that no "NATO troops" would enter Ukraine to risk the nuclear war, and that's why they warned Ukrainians REPEATEDLY before February 2022, that that's what it was going to be - a war on Ukrainian territory, with no one coming to defend them.
I'm not saying it would be rational of Russia to do that, I'm saying Russia is not rational. If they're allowed to win their consolation prize in Ukraine (because they already lost their main prize, the NATO thing), and then be allowed time to rebuild/restructure their military, their next moves also would not be rational...but are predictable.
They have stirred up trouble before with the Russian minorities in Estonia and Latvia. That would be their pattern. To try to create internal conflict and support their side with their little green men infiltrated. Lithuania would be harder because the Russian population is small. But they would love to have the 3 Baltic nations back, which is why they joined NATO.
Russia was spending the same percentage of its GDP on the military as America prior to the Ukraine War. That 283% figure was only comparing January/February 2022 to the same period in 2023. In those first two months Russia spent $26 billion($13 billion per month), but for the entire first half of the year they spent $60 billion($10 billion per month). The yearly average is expected to be even less.
Basically, the article I linked was from August and included the first six months of 2023. The article you linked was from May and only included the first two months of 2023. No idea why you wasted my time with your bull**** two month outlier instead of using the better and more accurate average from six months. But I can only assume it is because you were desperate to prove me wrong. And you failed again.
Russia is well-funded? Rofl. The United States spends almost as much in a month on its military as Russia spends in a year, and NATO has transferred more money and weapons to Ukraine than Russia spends/produces in a year.
Secondly, the Russian Army was outnumbered like three-to-one in Ukraine for most of this war. Even still, Ukraine would collapse in five minutes without western support.
Oh noes, he mad! Okey dokey then, so it spiked to 283% and then leveled off to 230%, happy now? Did Putin not increase it by 600% before the invasion? Does that not mean they're spending a metric sht-ton on their military?
And why does it matter how that compares to US military spending? We rich. Meanwhile, what percent of Russia's population don't even have indoor plumbing? I heard it's close to a 1/4 of your population! That's crazy, but I suppose instead building up a military to intimidate your neighbors is worth it.
As for your other point, so moot. Russia military capability is this: outguns and outmans Ukraine, by a mile.
The fact that with all that, they can't take Ukraine demonstrates that you don't deserve Ukraine.
The domino-theory you're proposing is ridiculous. Only schizos think Russia is out to conquer the world. And the only chance China moves on Taiwan is if the United States somehow convinces Taiwan to declare independence. China doesn't need to move on Taiwan. Time is on China's side.
Both China and Russia wanted neutrality and peace. Only America wants war. Time is not on America's side.
The only people who seem to care about the suffering of the Ukrainians, don't support Ukraine.
Whether the czars, the soviets, or whatever this is now over there, they've always been out to conquer their neighbors, or at least parts of their neighbors, as much as they're able.
They have stirred up trouble before with the Russian minorities in Estonia and Latvia. That would be their pattern. To try to create internal conflict and support their side with their little green men infiltrated. Lithuania would be harder because the Russian population is small. But they would love to have the 3 Baltic nations back, which is why they joined NATO.
Not really, as long as these 3 Baltic Nations sit quietly and don't do anything stupid, like say trying to interfere with flow of goods from Russian mainland to Kaliningrad, as Lithuanians tried to do recently, under the guise of "EU sanctions on Russia."
So what Russians probably WOULD LIKE to have by now, is control over that Suwalki Gap, connecting Kaliningrad with Russian mainland.
But if Russians do that, they cut those 3 Baltic countries off of the rest of NATO, even though Russians were not interested in them in the first place.
They have stirred up trouble before with the Russian minorities in Estonia and Latvia. That would be their pattern. To try to create internal conflict and support their side with their little green men infiltrated. Lithuania would be harder because the Russian population is small. But they would love to have the 3 Baltic nations back, which is why they joined NATO.
Oh yeh, no doubt. Kazakhstan has the same concerns, with their northern parts pretty thick with ethnic Russians.
Whether the czars, the soviets, or whatever this is now over there, they've always been out to conquer their neighbors, or at least parts of their neighbors, as much as they're able.
Oh but there is a BIG DIFFERENCE between "conquering the neighbors" and "conquering the world."
And herein lie the little ( or big) lies of the "neighbors."
They try to pass the danger that's coming to them from Russia, for the "danger for the whole world."
And these are most of all Poland/Baltic countries/and now Ukraine.
These are the entities that are trying to rally the world behind them, pointing at the "Russian danger" to other countries, where there is none, no danger to those other countries coming from Russia at all.
Oh yeh, no doubt. Kazakhstan has the same concerns, with their northern parts pretty thick with ethnic Russians.
And it probably HAS to have the "concerns," if it will continue the anti-Russian, nationalistic streak that I've heard was developing lately.
Because not only "northern parts of Kazakhstan are pretty thick with Russian population," but Russian Baikonur is there too.
Why I am saying it's Russian?
Because Kazakhstan was nothing but nomadic country, before Russians brought the modern civilization there and built the infrastructure ( not to mention cosmodrome.)
So as in case of Sevastopol's port, the military port that Russians built and maintained since the 1700ies, (i.e. Imperial times,) - once some "Ukraine" threatened to take over that port, Russians reacted in predictable manner, and took over Crimea.
So if Kazakhstan doesn't play nicely, that part of the country where Baikonur is, might be in danger as well, or however Russia will find convenient to deal with the situation, with the help of Russian population or without.
So as I've said - Russia is VERY predictable in its actions, as long as you are aware of what's going on behind the scene, even when the major news don't report it yet.
Last edited by erasure; 08-13-2023 at 05:56 PM..
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