Autumn/Fall 2015 Thread (Northern Hemisphere, Sep-Nov) (climate, snow, warm, ice)

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/statu...37940870766592

[Cambium]

Look at Northeast there. less than 50% chance of above normal temps for the 6-10 day period. lol. Good.

Just played the loops of NAM, GFS, EURO..


Dry & seasonable in the Northeast till Friday. Storm moves in Friday, clears out by Saturday lunch time.. Columbus day weekend looking nice. Not Cold.

GFS says storm becomes a 1000mb low off coast of Maine Saturday. Euro says no, just a 1008mb low.

This is for Friday evening. GFS left. Euro right. Very similar. But notice GFS digs the cold 540 line bit south more in Canada.

[snj90]

l

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/statu...37940870766592

UGH

At least the chance is lowest for us.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by snj90

l

UGH

At least the chance is lowest for us.

Check out what the Euro is saying







https://twitter.com/GenscapeWx/statu...82696351002624

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Check out what the Euro is saying

yeah, entire overall pattern not looking cold. More seasonable for Northeast though then warm. And I wonder what the 15 day avg temp is for New England.. low 50°s?

But without the blur of a 2 week average temp lets look at within...

from the same Euro Ensembles update heres Sunday morning temps..



Next saturday morning the 17th



Next Sunday morning the 18th



So you can still have frosts, freezes, chilly, and cold temps even when a 5-15 day average doesnt reflect it

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

yeah, entire overall pattern not looking cold. More seasonable for Northeast though then warm. And I wonder what the 15 day avg temp is for New England.. low 50°s?


So you can still have frosts, freezes, chilly, and cold temps even when a 5-15 day average doesnt reflect it

Sure, but by Oct 18 the average low in northern New England is in the upper 30s, maybe mid 30s in many spots. It doesn't take much below average to get a frost. You could equally pull up a mild temperature map.

[alex985]

Average lows for October 18 (Northern New England) I'm counting Upstate NY as well.


Saranac Lake, NY: 30 F (-1 C)

Burlington, VT: 38 F (3 C)

Berlin, NH: 33 (?) F (1 C); Average low is 34 F for the month, which would be eclipsed around October 15/16 so the 18th might be 33 F.

Bangor, ME: 36 F (2 C)

Presque Isle, ME: 34 F (1 C)

Caribou, ME: 34 F (1 C)


So yes, a frost on October 18 would be pretty much average everywhere.

[chicagogeorge]

I think the Blob's days are numbered.... Look at this


https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/statu...71628693110784

[nei]

Originally Posted by alex985

So yes, a frost on October 18 would be pretty much average everywhere.

Burlington gets milder nights from Lake Champlain, btw.

[alex985]

Originally Posted by nei

Burlington gets milder nights from Lake Champlain, btw.

Yeah, I kinda figured that. Also, I think Saranac Lake is colder because it's in a valley and at higher elevation than the other stations.