Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Atlanta: Indians, news, increase)

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

Those are really good points that the Democratic base often simply does not turnout for special elections.

Case in point: The 2008 runoff election for US Senate in GA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United..._Georgia,_2008

The Democratic voters, driven by enthusiasm for Obama in the General Election, couldn't be bothered to return to support Jim Martin in the runoff.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by atltechdude

Another court loss for Kemp's effort to prevent as many people from voting as possible.

https://thehill.com/regulation/court...ch-voting-case

I saw that. With this race coming down to the wire, every vote will matter, especially the ones that Kemp wants to block.

[BELMO45]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

Georgia political website GeorgiaPol.com put a post up at 4:34pm on Friday reporting that Georgia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Ted Metz put up a post on his Facebook page on Friday afternoon offering to drop out of the gubernatorial race in exchange for payment of his medical bills.



"Libertarian Candidate for Governor Appears to Offer to Drop Out for Medical Bill Payments" (GeorgiaPol.com)
https://www.georgiapol.com/2018/11/0...lw7NGF0gA9TlO8

It’s pointless as it would be too late anyway. The vast majority of people have likely voted already so he’d already have too many votes to prevent a runoff

[-thomass]

I have a feeling we are heading for a runoff.

[CaliDreaming01]

I could see how it would be possible for Abrams to win a runoff but I do think Kemp would have the advantage there. His voters turn out more reliably. Also, Metz’ voters would likely go to Kemp.

In any event, a runoff is looking less and less likely. Whites only made up 51% of the vote on Friday, bringing their overall percentage of the early vote down to 57%. Young voters were up sharply as well. The historical trend minority voters voting later in the process seems to be holding. Unless white Republicans totally dominate on Election Day, Kemp can’t win.

He needs whites to make up 60% of the vote and he needs to earn over three quarters of that vote. It seems highly unlikely that the early vote percentages are going to change that much on Election Day.

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

Also, Metz’ voters would likely go to Kemp.

I wouldn't be too sure about that. Kemp's position on social issues along with a questionable Civil Rights record may leave a bad taste in the mouth of many Libertarians. It did mine and I will be casting my vote for the Democratic candidate come Tuesday.

[BELMO45]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

I could see how it would be possible for Abrams to win a runoff but I do think Kemp would have the advantage there. His voters turn out more reliably. Also, Metz’ voters would likely go to Kemp.

In any event, a runoff is looking less and less likely. Whites only made up 51% of the vote on Friday, bringing their overall percentage of the early vote down to 57%. Young voters were up sharply as well. The historical trend minority voters voting later in the process seems to be holding. Unless white Republicans totally dominate on Election Day, Kemp can’t win.

He needs whites to make up 60% of the vote and he needs to earn over three quarters of that vote. It seems highly unlikely that the early vote percentages are going to change that much on Election Day.

Does anyone know where they’re pulling these race numbers from? They obviously didn’t exit poll 2 million people. Also keep in mind there is an “other” group of over 200,000 in there. For all we know 150,000 of those could be whites which puts them into the mid 60s percentage wise. That massive group of over 50s is still scary. At best 25% of those 1.3 to 1.4 mill are voting democrat. It could be as low as 18-20%. I still think a runoff is a lock

[JayHey]

It's publicly available information from the SoS. The "Other" selection is most often people who don't feel attached to any of the standard race options. So it's very unlikely that that large of a proportion of the "Other" voters are white, they are either mixed, or Middle-Eastern/N. African (MENA is a new census option). I'm not going to a venture a guess of how that group splits the vote, but 150,000 of them being a statistical "white voter" is a very big stretch of the imagination.

I don't know why you're putting the +50 vote at such a low Democratic vote split either. If anything we can presume that it is at least equal to the racial split, which would put the +50 vote at the lowest ~30% and more likely closer to 40%.

[Delahanty]

LOL leave it to Oprah Winfrey to campaign for a bodice-buster novelist.

[BELMO45]

Originally Posted by JayHey

It's publicly available information from the SoS. The "Other" selection is most often people who don't feel attached to any of the standard race options. So it's very unlikely that that large of a proportion of the "Other" voters are white, they are either mixed, or Middle-Eastern/N. African (MENA is a new census option). I'm not going to a venture a guess of how that group splits the vote, but 150,000 of them being a statistical "white voter" is a very big stretch of the imagination.

I don't know why you're putting the +50 vote at such a low Democratic vote split either. If anything we can presume that it is at least equal to the racial split, which would put the +50 vote at the lowest ~30% and more likely closer to 40%.

I just don’t come across many people in that age group who are Democrats. Particularly men. As far Metz vote splitting I voted for him and I have no idea if I would vote in a runoff. I don’t particularly love either candidate and I feel many of his votes comes from that group so it’s possible a runoff is entirely on who wants to show up. Abrams is overall less offensive of the two candidates. At the end of the day maybe her worst campaign push to me is blasting off Stone Mountain LOL. As another poster here pointed out though. A vote for Abrams or Gillum is very much mostly a vote to try and change state judge appointments to be more liberal because both will have a tough time getting much of their proposed agenda through with heavily conservative state congresses