Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Atlanta, Columbus, Savannah: electric, metro area, progressive)

[citidata18]

Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll

I don't know if it is evidence of a decisive late break in the direction of Brian Kemp and the GOP or if it is an outlier from all the multiple recent polls that have shown the race effectively tied, but a poll that was released on Sunday by The Trafalgar Group is showing Brian Kemp with a 12-point lead over Stacey Abrams.

The poll by The Trafalgar Group, which is a polling firm that seems to have a history of fairly accurate and reliable polling, has Brian Kemp with a 52-40 lead over Stacey Abrams in a survey that was conducted October 30th through November 3rd.

The poll also shows President Donald Trump (whom has proudly endorsed and is actively supporting and campaigning for Brian Kemp) with an approval rating of 52.6% amongst Georgia residents.

Though, the exact methodology of how the poll was conducted does not appear to be clear. (...Was the poll conducted over landlines, cell phones, internet or various combinations of all three?)

(The Trafalgar Group Survey Report - Georgia Governor Poll 10/30-11/3/18)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Lg-...i5i38r8ZS/view

Originally Posted by citidata18

The Trafalgar Group was founded and is led by notorious GOP Consultant Robert Cahaly, who frequently makes rounds only on Fox News and other far-right media outlets. He was also arrested and sued for making illegal robocalls during the 2010 midterm elections in South Carolina.

GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Also, 538 rates Trafalgar as a C with the accuracy of their polling. They don’t outright ban it from their use due to inaccuracy but they don’t rank it highly.

[JayHey]

Originally Posted by BELMO45

More blacks will vote for Kemp than you think. It won’t be 25% but it may be 12-15 which is high considering historical numbers.

That's quite the bold prediction. Are there any polling numbers to indicate that or is the source a bit more...ethereal?

[-thomass]

The problem for Abrams has always been getting 50%, regardless of whether she gets more votes or not. BO got close to 47% in 2008, but all other D’s since then have been hovering around 45-46%. If she doesn’t win outright tomorrow, she’s not winning the runoff. Her only hope is massive D turnout to get her 50%.

[DreamerD]

Originally Posted by JayHey

That is quite the outlier from other very recent polls. I wonder if tralfagar's other recent polls have deviated so far from the average.

Good point. That's quite the gap.

[AnsleyPark]

Originally Posted by -thomass

The problem for Abrams has always been getting 50%, regardless of whether she gets more votes or not. BO got close to 47% in 2008, but all other D’s since then have been hovering around 45-46%. If she doesn’t win outright tomorrow, she’s not winning the runoff. Her only hope is massive D turnout to get her 50%.

I believe there could be a few developments in the news to cause some folks to switch candidates between tomorrow and a potential run-off. This whole "The Dems Hacked the Voting Data" thing could play into it - either way, I might suspect. There'll be something else, I'm sure between now and then.

[-thomass]

Originally Posted by citidata18

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Also, 538 rates Trafalgar as a C with the accuracy of their polling. They don’t outright ban it from their use due to inaccuracy but they don’t rank it highly.

They might get a bad rap, but they were the only group that had trump winning PA and MI lol. Of course I don’t expect Abrams to lose by 12 points though

[ronricks]

Polls are not as accurate as the used to be. It’s hard to poll people with only cell phones. Most people if they don’t know the number let it go to voicemail or don’t respond to the text. I would advise people to be very careful when looking at polls or trying to interpret the data as 'Facts'.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by -thomass

They might get a bad rap, but they were the only group that had trump winning PA and MI lol. Of course I don’t expect Abrams to lose by 12 points though

I still wouldn't give this pollster credit even if Kemp wins or forces a runoff.

You have a 1 in 2 chance of getting it right if you just guess who the winner is in a close election like this one. It's a lot harder to be closer to the actual vote percentage.

[Mouldy Old Schmo]

Will Fulton and Gwinnett Countiesl be the ones that decide the gubernatorial election?

[Pemgin]

Fulton is one in which Abrams has to run up the score. Gwinnett probably will not be a decisive county in this election, but a big win by Abrams in Gwinnett (like 10 points) will be trouble for Kemp. Abrams will likely get around 70% of the vote in Fulton. I imagine she'll get somewhere between 50-55% in Gwinnett. South Georgia is probably where this race will be decided. Kemp absolutely has to have a strong turnout in rural white counties.