Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Atlanta, Newnan, Acworth: map, downtown, accepted)

[midgeorgiaman]

Originally Posted by Pemgin

Fulton is one in which Abrams has to run up the score. Gwinnett probably will not be a decisive county in this election, but a big win by Abrams in Gwinnett (like 10 points) will be trouble for Kemp. Abrams will likely get around 70% of the vote in Fulton. I imagine she'll get somewhere between 50-55% in Gwinnett. South Georgia is probably where this race will be decided. Kemp absolutely has to have a strong turnout in rural white counties.

From what I am seeing....(Kemp love everywhere down here in rural areas surrounding Macon) the rural vote will show. The urban vote needs to be of Barack Obama 2008 intensity for Abrams to win...IMO.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Polls are not as accurate as the used to be. It’s hard to poll people with only cell phones. Most people if they don’t know the number let it go to voicemail or don’t respond to the text. I would advise people to be very careful when looking at polls or trying to interpret the data as 'Facts'.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...are-all-right/

[AnsleyPark]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Polls are not as accurate as the used to be. It’s hard to poll people with only cell phones. Most people if they don’t know the number let it go to voicemail or don’t respond to the text. I would advise people to be very careful when looking at polls or trying to interpret the data as 'Facts'.

Good advice!

[Laaaa]

The polls are all over the place, I think at this point with the election tomorrow we should put speculation aside and wait 24 hours from now. Don't rack your brain about it since we'll know soon.

[atltechdude]

I still think Kemp takes a narrow win, but either way I'm liking the progress we've made in Georgia this cycle in the shift toward being more of a swing state. We legitimately do not know who is going to win, it is that close. And that is departure from years past.

[budgetwise5]

I know I’m the outlier here, but I’ve been so uninspired about this race, plus the national attention it’s getting, because just like 2016, both candidates have so many negatives. I don’t really like either one of them for multiple reasons, or the far right/far left divide of the parties, leaving most people anywhere between the extremes without proper representation or with anything but a circus. I guess all of politics has become a circus, though.

[Fountain-of-youth]

Originally Posted by Mouldy Old Schmo

Will Fulton and Gwinnett Countiesl be the ones that decide the gubernatorial election?

Neither. South GA is the deciding factor.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by atltechdude

I still think Kemp takes a narrow win, but either way I'm liking the progress we've made in Georgia this cycle in the shift toward being more of a swing state. We legitimately do not know who is going to win, it is that close. And that is departure from years past.

I agree that Brian Kemp likely has more of an advantage in this race than Stacey Abrams, just simply because white voters continue to be the majority of voters in this state by a significant margin, and also because the Republican electoral majority is so well-entrenched in this state at this point in time.

Though, the chances of Stacey Abrams pulling the earth-shaking upset did seem to have been high and rising in recent days.

Overall, I give Brian Kemp and the GOP about a 55% or so chance of winning the gubernatorial race tomorrow, while I give Stacey Abrams and the Democrats about a 45% or so chance of winning tomorrow.

Which the 45% figure might seem low to many onlookers, but that roughly 45% chance of winning actually is quite extremely high for a Democratic candidate at this very late point in a gubernatorial race or any statewide contest where Republican candidates often have about a 65-70% chance of winning at the very least.

Brian Kemp likely is still the favorite to win the governor's race tomorrow, while GOP candidate likely are still the favorites to win all other statewide races tomorrow, as well the competitive races in the Georgia 6th and 7th Congressional districts in the North metro Atlanta suburbs.

But Stacey Abrams appears to have done an excellent job during the 2018 election cycle at pulling the long-downtrodden Georgia Democrats much closer to parity in this deep-red Republican-dominated state.

Win-or-lose tomorrow, Georgia Democrats, progressives and progressive-leaning moderates and independents can take pride that they have given the Republican and conservative-dominated power structure a real run for their money during the 2018 election cycle behind the leadership and direction of Stacey Abrams, who has really given ruling Georgia Republicans the fits during her very spirited run for governor.

Win-or-lose tomorrow, Stacey Abrams' electric 2018 run for governor and the energy and optimism that it has provided for the rising Democratic and progressive minority in this deep-red GOP/conservative-dominated state has helped tremendously to build infrastructure that Democrats and progressives will be able to come back to better compete and give themselves legitimate chances at winning in future statewide election cycles when there will be more Democratic/progressive voters in the electorate and maybe fewer obstacles to winning from the political right... A political right which is hyper-energized right now after the contentious Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearings and after and during a month of October when President Donald Trump has been particularly active and combative.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by Mouldy Old Schmo

Will Fulton and Gwinnett Countiesl be the ones that decide the gubernatorial election?

Originally Posted by Fountain-of-youth

Neither. South GA is the deciding factor.

Not just South Georgia, but all of outer-suburban, exurban and rural Georgia in general will be the deciding factor in this race.

Voter turnout appears to be up very significantly in the urban and suburban core of the Atlanta metropolitan area, as well as in other areas of the state where Abrams is likely to receive the bulk of her electoral support (like in the urban cores of second-tier metro areas like Savannah, Columbus, Augusta, Macon and the throughout the "Black Belt" of sorts of predominantly black rural counties in South Georgia).

But voter turnout also appears to be up very significantly in the predominantly white and conservative outer-suburban counties of the Atlanta metro area (like in Forsyth, Cherokee, Paulding, Fayette, Coweta, etc), the predominantly white and conservative outer-suburban, exurban and rural counties of the rest of the state in areas like extreme North Georgia and South Georgia where Donald Trump received the bulk of his electoral support in 2016 and where Brian Kemp will receive the bulk of his electoral support in 2018.

What will decide this race is whether a Democratic candidate like Stacey Abrams will be able to turnout enough voters in metro Atlanta and the predominantly minority other parts of the state to overcome the very high voter turnout that Kemp and Trump are generating in the predominantly white and conservative outer-suburban, exurban and rural parts of the state.

[DreamerD]

Originally Posted by atltechdude

I still think Kemp takes a narrow win, but either way I'm liking the progress we've made in Georgia this cycle in the shift toward being more of a swing state. We legitimately do not know who is going to win, it is that close. And that is departure from years past.

Excellent point! I'm proud of Abrams either way. I still feel hopeful (and dare I say confident) she will win. Anyway, like a poster indicated, best to wait until later today/tonight.