Gubernatorial Race 2018 (tickets, payments, offer)

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by budgetwise5

I don’t love either choice for Georgia. I’m trying to learn as much about Ted Metz and his positions as I can. Kemp is really trying too hard to sound like a deep south good ole’ boy - and that won’t help Georgia’s image or reputation be viewed as anything but deep red deep south (notice how our neighbor SC doesn’t have this problem - and Nikki Haley has been a very positive and respectable politician). Abrams is relying too much on the race card and trying to promote leftist/liberal policies in a historically conservative state.

Why can’t we have a moderate lead the state? Someone that will respect the traditions of Georgia and not completely **** off the conservatives and those with money, but also bring some new ideas and to help Georgia improve it’s negative national stats (education, healthcare, poverty, etc). Doing the same thing and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. This two-party system, false dichotomy and division is really dragging our country and our morale down.

In ordinary times, that would be a fair question to ask. These are not ordinary times. These are times when it is not hyperbolic to state that democracy itself is at stake. And Brian Kemp wants to continue the erosion of democracy.

[CaliDreaming01]

Georgia Votes

The single largest voting block in early voting has been voters who did not vote in 2014. They make up 36% of early voters so far. To put that into perspective, by the time early voting ends, over 700,000 "new" voters will have voted. Compare that with 2014, where you had about 925,000 early votes totals, and it's really mind boggling how much more voter participation we are getting in GA this year.

Also, although all areas of GA are seeing growth, Metro Atlanta is a turnout machine. Metro Atlanta will be decisive in this election.

[BELMO45]

All those 40 plus voters though seems ominous for Democrats. It’s hard to believe many of those 1.2 mill or so over 50 are voting democrat

[CaliDreaming01]

Not really. The share of white voters has gone way down. Black participation is right where they need it. And Hispanic, Asians and others have doubled their percentage of the vote over 2014.

[BELMO45]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

Not really. The share of white voters has gone way down. Black participation is right where they need it. And Hispanic, Asians and others have doubled their percentage of the vote over 2014.

I also don’t know who votes more on Election Day. Logic would tell me the below 50 vote is generally going to be early because more of them are working while 50 plus is more likely retired and able to vote on Election Day. I’ve seen some tweets though that argue the reverse and that most millennials vote on Election Day

[JayHey]

You have to remember that Abrams entire strategy was getting disaffected people to vote for the first time in years, across all ages.

[toll_booth]

Originally Posted by BELMO45

All those 40 plus voters though seems ominous for Democrats. It’s hard to believe many of those 1.2 mill or so over 50 are voting democrat

Not always. The suburbs are getting bluer. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...n-seats-alone/

Originally Posted by JayHey

You have to remember that Abrams entire strategy was getting disaffected people to vote for the first time in years, across all ages.

It was a smart plan. A lot of people have become fed up with politics in recent times. She knew from the get-go that if she is to win, these are the additional votes she would need.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by BELMO45

I also don’t know who votes more on Election Day. Logic would tell me the below 50 vote is generally going to be early because more of them are working while 50 plus is more likely retired and able to vote on Election Day. I’ve seen some tweets though that argue the reverse and that most millennials vote on Election Day

It's really hard to say what is going to happen on Election Day because we're in uncharted territory when it comes to turnout. Usually younger people and minorities vote toward the end of early voting and on election day but this year high numbers have already voted early. Do they continue to vote at the same pace or have all of their votes been cannibalized from the folks who would otherwise vote on Election Day.

If past trends hold, I would assume we'd get larger numbers of young folk, but I would be reluctant to assume that everything will happen as it has in the past.

Originally Posted by JayHey

You have to remember that Abrams entire strategy was getting disaffected people to vote for the first time in years, across all ages.

Originally Posted by toll_booth

Not always. The suburbs are getting bluer. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...n-seats-alone/



It was a smart plan. A lot of people have become fed up with politics in recent times. She knew from the get-go that if she is to win, these are the additional votes she would need.

Yes. She put in millions into GOTV and I think it's a safe assumption that it's paid off big for her. Turnout is up all over the state but Metro Atlanta's influence in early voting so far has been outsized.


modcut

[Otakumaster]

Any poll updates?

How is it looking?

[BELMO45]

Originally Posted by Otakumaster

Any poll updates?

How is it looking?

Runoff almost for sure. I would say it’s 80% runoff 15% Kemp wins Tuesday, 5% Abrams does.