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That is very interesting indeed. This morning at 7:00 it was 33 at my house with thunder and rain, but it has warmed up to about 37 since then, though I have seen some sleet at times. It is always hard to predict these things around here, but the main precip looks to eb going south and east on the radar. And NOAA has really backed off, but we'll just have to wait and see. Birminghan AL got 3-5 inches, yet all watches cancelled for Huntsville.
Like I said, NWS is being very conservative and has been wrong with most of the estimates so far. Just look at Memphis. They were projected to get only 2-3 inches and some parts of the city got around a foot. Here is a good model showing where the heavy snow will most likely take place:
-Line from Atlanta through Greenville up to Hickory looks to be the best bet as it stands currently.
NWS is going to have to change advisories to warnings:
Mesoscale discussion 0184
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1119 am cst sun mar 01 2009
areas affected...nrn/cntrl al/ga/sc
concerning...heavy snow
valid 011719z - 012115z
snow will continue to fall across the southeast...gradually building
ewd with time. In general light to moderate rates of accumulation
can be expected. However...bands of moderate to heavy snow with inch
an hour rates are likely...as well as brief convective bursts of
snow...mainly over nrn/cntrl ga. This will lead to localized areas
of significant accumulations...especially over e cntrl/nern ga into
cntrl/wrn sc.
An intense upper low is now becoming more negatively tilted over the
srn al/ga borders. Strong cold advection in its wake has brought
subfreezing temperatures and snow into the deep south...with recent
observations in al in birmingham and in ga at atlanta and ft benning
reporting mdt/hvy snowfall. Temperatures will continue to plummet
into ga/sc as the upper low shifts e then ne. Strongest deformation
zone remains north and west of the upper low...reflected in recent
enhancement on wv imagery over nrn/w cntrl ga and back into cntrl
al. Precipitation has been intensifying recently across these
areas...especially near the atlanta metro where the upper low will
initially be slow to move ewd...allowing heavier rates to linger.
Dynamic cooling may allow some sites to switch to snow earlier than
model forecasts have anticipated...while increasing isentropic lift
with relative warm/moist airmass to the n and e being lifted atop
subfreezing temperatures to the s and w will contribute to enhanced
snowfall rates in an already saturated airmass. As the low begins to
shift ewd then newd...e cntrl/nern ga into cntrl/wrn sc will become
favored. Occasional lightning strikes have been observed across nrn
ga...and an elevated layer of instability will allow this trend to
continue ewd. As this occurs...localized bursts of heavier snowfall
can be anticipated. Despite warm ground/soil temperatures...snow has
been accumulating across the southeast. Additionally...should
banding/thundersnow occur...overall accumulations will be higher
than model forecast with rates of an inch an hour possible...which
has been observed in the past two days.
bring it...I'm ready for being housebound for a day or two. There is a lot of water out there that is going to freeze when those temps fall to freezing and below. I predict Greenville County will cancel school for tomorrow and possibly a late start on Tuesday. Let's see what happens!
Fox Carolina bumping up snow total predictions for area: foxcarolina.com - Weather - FOX Carolina Weather Center Blog That mess in Atlanta is moving northeast bound right up I-85. NOAA is flying Recon into storm. This is a big one folks. Expect Pickens County and probably Occonee to get bumped up to warning. I expect anywhere from four inches to a foot for this area. Rarely do you see the Storms Prediction Center talk about thundersnow for the area.
BRING IT! BTW, I had a rain snow mix at my house in Taylors for about 20 minutes, thoguh I think it went back to all rain a few minutes ago.
It looks like NOAA is waiting until their 3:00 afternoon package to make changes, it still says all the same stuff as it did mid-morning.
- Actually just noticed that NOAA is cutting back more on thier totals. Much of Gville area now forecasted only 1-2 inches. NWS and Fox 21 must be looking at vastly diferent models.
Last edited by distortedlogic; 03-01-2009 at 11:29 AM..
BRING IT! BTW, I had a rain snow mix at my house in Taylors for about 20 minutes, thoguh I think it went back to all rain a few minutes ago.
It looks like NOAA is waiting until their 3:00 afternoon package to make changes, it still says all the same stuff as it did mid-morning.
- Actually just noticed that NOAA is cutting back more on thier totals. Much of Gville area now forecasted only 1-2 inches. NWS and Fox 21 must be looking at vastly diferent models.
NWS last updated at 10:30am. Everybody is upping expected totals. Local forecast on TWC went from 2-4 inches up to 3-5 inches. They predicted only around an inch for Atlanta. They already have around 2 inches.
well it is sleeting here in Simpsonville roads are going to be a mess even if it does not snow that much with all the water out there.
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