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I believe what you say, but you're confusing personal anecdote with actual Census-verified data. Yes, there are many, many people who like sprawly suburbia even today, just like there were millions of people happily living in NYC in the 1970's.
The point is that the overall macro trends point to radical changes in lifestyle preferences, and LI is already being left behind. The question is how people want to respond to these changes. Putting your head in the sand because you may personally like sprawl isn't a reasonable response, just like saying "everything's fine, I'm happy in NYC just as it is" wouldn't have been a reasonable response in the 1970's. LI needs to adapt.
It is changing for the better, though. I think people are waking up to the importance of transit-oriented development.
So why have home prices in garden city, Great neck, herricks etc kept going up since the financial crisis, and not down? If lifestyle changes have changed radically, shouldn't prices have gone down?
And then the next generation of young singles move in, so what's the problem. I'm not sure why someone would rent a Long Island apartment at NYC prices, though there are obviously some high-paying jobs on Long Island, some may be native Long Islanders who wish to be close to friends and family but not have their own house nor live with their parents, etc. But there's clearly a market for them, otherwise they wouldn't be able to command those rents. Demand not too high, but supply is low. So as long as there's a market for the proposed housing, it clearly does make sense.
Also, increasing the housing supply reduces pressure to increase rents: supply & demand; some people don't want to own a home right away and the high housing costs make Long Island unattractive. I grew up on Long Island; I'd consider moving back there more if rentals weren't so expensive.
There are three of these new apartment type buildings in my town, all near train stations. Their rent starts at $2500 for a one bedroom. They took a long time to get built as different builders ran out of money and ended up selling them to someone else, but they are finally open. And they are half occupied or less. Originally, they were supposed to have a concierge, one was supposed to have a fitness room and so on, but since they have trouble getting them rented, all of this has been on hold for the past 18 months, despite advertising. I am sure that if the rents were lowered, they would be occupied, but the demographics here do not support the people here having that type of salary to maintain that type of rent or if they do earn that type of salary, they prefer living much closer to their job in NYC or the vibrancy in NYC. The emptynesters, who would also take advantage of these type of places because they want to downsize, don't want to pay rent that is higher than their mortgage. The transit hubs, ala LIRR stations, only help with the commute for work. If you want to go to a bar, a club, the handful of entertainment venues like The Space, you will need a car to get to Huntington, Patchogue, Babylon Village, Westbury, Rockville Centre. It's not like you can hop on a subway that has a stop every 10 blocks.
As for increasing the housing supply to reduce pressure to increase rents, how did that turn out in NYC?
Long Island does have some decent employment centers like in Garden Coty, Farmingdale/Melville and Happaugue. Lack of decent rentals and walkable communities undoubtedly puts these employers at a disadvantage attracting younger talented workers. That can't really be in dispute. Long Island is not fundamentally broken -people still want houses- but there certainly is demand for decent apartments in downtown areas. I don't think LI apartment living would be attractive to most young people working in the city, but for younger professionals on LI who don't want to make the reverse commute, absolutely.
And if there were more jobs for young professionals, it would be sustainable. But there has been a decrease in these types of jobs nationally and even more so on Long Island as we have lost the big businesses that helped to create and sustain the Long Island population. We do have many low paying service jobs and much part-time employment.
So why have home prices in garden city, Great neck, herricks etc kept going up since the financial crisis, and not down? If lifestyle changes have changed radically, shouldn't prices have gone down?
Exactly, as well as NOLA's Dix Hills. People still want space when they have more than one kid and these high end area homes are still cheaper than getting a 3 bedroom apartment in Manhattan or the hot spots in Brooklyn or Queens.
People still want space when they have more than one kid and these high end area homes are still cheaper than getting a 3 bedroom apartment in Manhattan or the hot spots in Brooklyn or Queens.
And they face the dire alternative of raising these kids in NYC, and being educated in NYC schools. While general preferences may have changed in favor of cities (who wouldn't want a 20-minute commute?), the most critical services like education and housing have not caught up in these cities. If past is an indication of the future, they never will.
The transit hubs, ala LIRR stations, only help with the commute for work.
A third, if not fourth track would have to be built east of Jamaica to Ronkonkoma and Oyster Bay. The disintegrating switching systems will have to be gutted out and replaced with a modern one. Just look at the multi-day delays that happened last January/Feb. Unless these projects are done, LI stations cannot become NYC-class commuting destinations. There is no money for this. MTA has already announced that its top priorities for spending over the next 10-20 years would be the 2nd avenue subway, east side access, and Penn Station tunnel.
Last edited by Forest_Hills_Daddy; 05-01-2016 at 03:31 PM..
So why have home prices in garden city, Great neck, herricks etc kept going up since the financial crisis, and not down? If lifestyle changes have changed radically, shouldn't prices have gone down?
Garden City, Great Neck and Herricks are all walkable, transit oriented, mixed-use communities. They're exactly what Long Island should aspire to be, and exactly what LI NIMBYs are fighting against. They have sidewalks, street corner retail, apartment buildings.
It's places like Dix Hills and Smithtown that are struggling, on a relative basis. Those are the types of places being rejected by Gen Xers and Millennials.
And if we know anything, we know this is absolutely not true.
The biggest mistake would be to assume that future generations would have the same preferences as past generations, especially when we have a mountain of data showing they do NOT want sprawl.
A third, if not fourth track would have to be built east of Jamaica to Ronkonkoma and Oyster Bay.
They're already doing this. The MTA already has a third track for the main line in its next funding cycle. East Side Access, an enormous investment, will primarily benefit Long Islanders, and should allow huge increases in commuting capacity to Manhattan.
No offense, but you are playing exactly the NIMBY playbook. You're trying to come up with any possible reason why Long Island has no choice but to stagnate. If someone says we need new housing, you'll say the trains can't handle it. If the trains get improved, you'll say there are too many trains and ruining the peace and quiet, and a waste of money. If they cut the trains so less waste you'll go back to saying it's too crowded.
The MTA is spending $10 billion on East Side Access but apparently it's not enough, or too much, or who knows. It's much easier to nitpick and complain and do nothing than to be productive and find solutions.
It's places like Dix Hills and Smithtown that are struggling, on a relative basis. Those are the types of places being rejected by Gen Xers and Millennials.
Then jobs in Melville, Hauppauge and stony brook aren't particularly attractive to millenials to begin with. They don't offer that kind of fast trajectory that someone in his 20s to mid 30s would need to become professionally established, before they buy a home in the burbs. Local employers complain they can't match the salaries or entry level job descriptions in nyc. Given the lack of livelihood opportunities, there is no reason for them to move to Dix hills or Smithtown until they become mid managers at which point they are ready to buy single family homes.
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