When is the Next CA Housing Price Collapse Supposed to Happen? (health insurance, property taxes)

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by Finper

I'm not sure Newsome has a balls to try that. Is his ego really that big that he thinks he can pull that off and stay in office? I think he is def going to attempt health care for all but Prop 13? Guess we'll see what horror is coming down the pike for Ca in the next years.

I honestly can't think of any other way he could get it off the ground. Business taxes are already through the roof and chasing companies away. Another gas tax? Increase sales tax? What other SALT can he push through the Democrat super majority that would bring in the revenue for such a costly campaign promise?

Prop 13 is the golden goose IMO, especially if it's marketed as "in exchange" for free health care.

There are enough left leaning non-property owners in California who would instantly vote for that without thinking twice.

This also shows the dangers of one party rule.

[Tulemutt]

AI tax ... right around the corner.

[TacoSoup]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

I honestly can't think of any other way he could get it off the ground. Business taxes are already through the roof and chasing companies away. Another gas tax? Increase sales tax? What other SALT can he push through the Democrat super majority that would bring in the revenue for such a costly campaign promise?

Prop 13 is the golden goose IMO, especially if it's marketed as "in exchange" for free health care.

There are enough left leaning non-property owners in California who would instantly vote for that without thinking twice.

This also shows the dangers of one party rule.

True, but the owner occupancy rate is still well over 50%. This doesn’t account for those who have second homes or rental properties, or the educated renters that know their rent will immediately go up. I could be wrong, and I hope I’m not, but I don’t see any changes passing in an election anytime soon. I could see changes to businesses, I hope not, but not residential.

This is only speculation, but I could see an offer being put out where current homeowners are grandfathered in to get the necessary votes. If this were the case you’d see a buying frenzy like no other, and those already planning on cashing out will really cash in. There was a lot of extra activity at the end of 2017 to get into escrow by Dec. 17th to get grandfathered in with the changes from $1M to $750K for the interest deduction on mortgages. I guess only time will tell to see how this plays out, if it does at all. I think most of us are smart enough to know politicians will say stuff they never had any plan on doing.

Prices will fall as interest rates rise, but most aren’t going to be much better off unless they have a lot of cash, which most don’t. A 10% drop in price, but a 1% raise on rates is gonna be a wash on your monthly payment. But I’m sure a lot of people on here that have been calling for a crash for as many as 5-6 years now will say I told you so, even though they’d be way ahead if they didn’t listen to their own advice. I fully expect to see prices drop, but I expect them to come right back. I’ve seen it several times in my short life.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by TacoSoup

True, but the owner occupancy rate is still well over 50%. This doesn’t account for those who have second homes or rental properties, or the educated renters that know their rent will immediately go up. I could be wrong, and I hope I’m not, but I don’t see any changes passing in an election anytime soon. I could see changes to businesses, I hope not, but not residential.

Most renters don't understand the supply side of rent control (which is why SF and LA have engaged in it), so I doubt they would see the supply side effect of higher holding costs for landlords. Throw in a few percentage points of bleeding heart leftist who want "health care for all" (a major campaign promise of Newsom), not to mention the ballot harvesting of the illegal alien population (who would be covered under Newsom's healthcare plan), and that 51% doesn't seem so far fetched.

Originally Posted by TacoSoup

This is only speculation, but I could see an offer being put out where current homeowners are grandfathered in to get the necessary votes. If this were the case you’d see a buying frenzy like no other, and those already planning on cashing out will really cash in. There was a lot of extra activity at the end of 2017 to get into escrow by Dec. 17th to get grandfathered in with the changes from $1M to $750K for the interest deduction on mortgages. I guess only time will tell to see how this plays out, if it does at all. I think most of us are smart enough to know politicians will say stuff they never had any plan on doing.

I could see this as well. In fact, this is a completely plausible way for them to go about it based on past legislation from the super dem majority.

That would get the votes from current Democrat homeowners, and would have a sunset effect for Prop 13 that would be passed to the next generation.

Wow. How evil, but brilliant.

[Tulemutt]

Bill Gates Says Robots Should Be Taxed Like Workers

Gates believes that if automation doesn’t clearly benefit all members of society, it could generate some sort of neo-Luddite movement that would restrain technology much more severely than any tax.

The debates over taxing AI have been going on for some years already. There is your new source of revenue when no more can be wrenched out of workers’ pockets. There really isn’t any other choice other than increasing taxation on the super wealthy and AI. If the super wealthy want to remain on top, they need consumers to buy products and services ... for which, obviously, the worker bees need income.

[Ultrarunner]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

Have you taken steps to reduce your exposure? From what I remember you said you own multiple rentals in the East Bay.

I do have investments outside California but the bulk is right here in the SF Bay Area...

My average tenancy is just about 13 years with one going back to 1987.

I must be doing something right as new tenants are almost all referrals from current and past... so far I have resisted selling and my long term ownership has been a great benefit to my tenants as they all pay below market... but, with few exceptions, they are really a joy to manage.

I may be left holding the bag... several unsolicited offers have come in from those buying in the area... full CAR forms with checks attached...

It would be easy to cash out but I also think what a hardship it would be for the families I manage...

I also have boomerang tenants... those that were previous tenants and came back... several had bought homes and lost them to foreclosure... and one moved to a better area and found it was anything but better...

[Bill the Butcher]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

AI tax ... right around the corner.

I thought that was to fund our Basic Income? Now it is going to fund health care for all?

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

Prop 13 is the golden goose IMO, especially if it's marketed as "in exchange" for free health care.

It'll never happen. We can't even get the ACA to work correctly here (thanks to its systematic dismantling by Trump and Co).

Newsom won't be around for the next gubernatorial election if he tampers with Prop 13. Too many people here are for it, and remain for it.

California looks a lot different than it did a generation ago. Its residents are far more diverse, and they live in a far more expensive state. There’s way more renters and proportionately way fewer Republicans.

Yet today’s Californians have at least one thing in common with their late 1970s forebears: They still really like Proposition 13.

In 1978 California voters approved Prop. 13 with a whopping 65 percent of the vote.

This year (2018), when the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California surveyed voters about Prop. 13, 65 percent said it had been mostly a good thing. Yes, the exact same proportion that voted for the measure 40 years ago.

https://calmatters.org/articles/cali...proval-rating/

[Tulemutt]

Originally Posted by Bill the Butcher

I thought that was to fund our Basic Income? Now it is going to fund health care for all?

It will fund lots of things.

It’s like this: when there’s few working ... and taxes can’t go any higher without literally starving the masses ... and healthcare costs more than each paycheck delivers ............... what will the wealthy do to sell their wares?

You know the old story about the goose that laid golden eggs, right? Kill the goose and the gold supply stops. The consuming public are geese. They have to be kept alive to lay eggs a.k.a. buy stuff.

There isn’t anywhere else to go for money. Our economic system is built around conspicuous [over] consumption.

[Scorpion3510]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

It'll never happen. We can't even get the ACA to work correctly here (thanks to its systematic dismantling by Trump and Co).

Newsom won't be around for the next gubernatorial election if he tampers with Prop 13. Too many people here are for it, and remain for it.

California looks a lot different than it did a generation ago. Its residents are far more diverse, and they live in a far more expensive state. There’s way more renters and proportionately way fewer Republicans.

Yet today’s Californians have at least one thing in common with their late 1970s forebears: They still really like Proposition 13.

In 1978 California voters approved Prop. 13 with a whopping 65 percent of the vote.

This year (2018), when the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California surveyed voters about Prop. 13, 65 percent said it had been mostly a good thing. Yes, the exact same proportion that voted for the measure 40 years ago.

https://calmatters.org/articles/cali...proval-rating/

Despite this, I could definitely see Prop 13 dismantled IF there was a grandfather clause. Those that have already gotten in would be able to pass property and the effective rate to their heir/devisee. Their incentive to oppose the measure would not be there.


The burden would fall to all new homeowners that were not legacies of current homeowners. This would be terrifying to any potential new owner.