[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by simonusa3

LOL, if I could do that I would be the richest person on earth. LOL

Climate is a numbers and average game. While there as been a last freeze as late as late May, and in other years the last freeze was in early April (like this year). What's rare about this year (we'll see after tonight?) is that the last freeze was so early (April 8th). The "normal" final freeze up at Bradley is April 24th.

Data wise, a final freeze in May is a bit more usual up at Bradley:

From 1953 to 2023 (70 years)....26 times there was a freeze in May...and 44 times the final freeze was in April. After May 10th, the chance drops off fast, even way up at Bradley.

You're proving my point. Just because we don't have a freeze this week at Bradley, has no bearing on whether we might have a freeze at Bradley up until May 20.

[simonusa3]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

You're proving my point. Just because we don't have a freeze this week at Bradley, has no bearing on whether we might have a freeze at Bradley up until May 20.

Using the fixed data set we have, the statistical odds change over time, of course. So actually, it does.

Ove the last 74 years, the mean date of the last freeze at NWS Bradley is April 24th. The latest last freeze was in 2002 (May 20th)…the earlies last freeze was on 1953 (March 22).

Pick two dates near these extremes…let’s use May 14th and April 10th.

In 74 years of record keeping, only 2 times has the final freeze at Bradley been before April 10th (72 times it was after that date). Numerically there is only a 3% chance of the final spring freeze at Bradley occurring before April 10th. So, it’s very usual to see the final freeze at Bradley as early as April 10th.

At the other end of the spectrum, only 4 times has the final freeze at Bradley been after May 13th (70 times it was before that date). Numerically, there is only a 5% chance of the final freeze at Bradley occurring at late as May 14th or later. So, it’s a long shot that the final freeze at Bradley will occur late into May.

Of course as I’m sure you realize, statistical averages only show what is likely to occur…not what is in the realm of possibility.

Are you rooting for a freeze or are you worried about your flowers. LOL

[simonusa3]

Looks Bradley fell to 31 F....the record is safe.

[Cambium]

34°. I haven't checked for frost. Who cares at this point. So tired of it. It's May next week!



Still going



Looks like below freezing away from the airports



Just frost advisories were issued meanwhile places dropped to freezing. Bad call. Unless those places havent started growing season yet? Doubt that

[WouldLoveTo]

Just heard the heat come on

[simonusa3]

These look like the lows last night from the latest NWS reporting:

NWS Bradley = 31 F
NWS Bridgeport = 38 F
NWS Central Park = 46 F


With NWS Bradley out of the running...it looks like NWS Bridgeport is the station that might (?) break their record this spring. With the pattern of sunny and dry weather this week and even into the weekend, it looks like while there will be some cool nights, the forecasts have lows for Bridgeport well above freezing. If March 24th, holds Bridgeport still in the running this spring for the 4th spot.

[simonusa3]

Now that we have gone from one extreme to another from rain to sun...how is this for temperature whiplash:

Mondays forecast highs (Bradley might hit 88 F - a 57 F jump from this mornings low - lol):

[simonusa3]

NOAA newest 30 day outlook for May for Connecticut:

[simonusa3]

Next 30 days for Precip:

[simonusa3]

...and the next three months. We all know how long term forecasts go...so this is just a forecast: