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Old 09-12-2010, 10:47 AM
 
5,065 posts, read 14,400,689 times
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Originally Posted by Cambium View Post

moving on....Snowicane?
Well, if we don't eventually get some rain, I fear mother nature will make up for the shortfall with snow.
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Old 09-12-2010, 10:53 AM
 
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Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
I’m not dissing the NHC here (or trying be on Cambium’s side) so just take this comment for what it is…but in the end…forecasts beyond 72 hours from the NHC are not so great either. NHC said that Earl would not come close enough to pose a threat or impact the Leeward Island. They were wrong: Earl lashed (though not severely) the northern Leeward Islands with winds near hurricane force, heavy seas, and torrential rain.

Then NHC told us four days before Earl got to a position just east of the Bahamas that it would skirt the US East Coast. Well, that is not much of an earth-shattering forecast: The track east of the Bahamas then sweeping northwest, north/northwest, then north-northeast, then northeast (the parabolic recurve ) is pretty easy and safe to make (give a ninth-grader the same info and historical storm tracks , and he/she would come to the same conclusion). Cambium (and myself, maybe to just a lesser extent)…looked at the position of the trough coming east and thought that maybe this feature would not make it in time (I was also playing the card of the odds of a tropical cyclone strike are high in the region due to no landfalls in 19 years).

Yes…99% of tropical cyclones curve northeast away from the US mainland between Virginia Beach, VA and Long Island. It’s not much of a vindication to say that happened again. That’s like me playing a pickup game of basketball with Michael Jordon…and saying I’m betting he’ll probably win. I challenge anyone (or any computer model) to tell what path a tropical cyclone will take when it’s 1000 miles east of San Salvador Island. Beyond 72-96 hours - it’s really just a estimate using historical storm tracks.


PS…and to be fair to Cambium’s last line (we should AT LEAST have Tropical Winds and rain this coming weekend)…we’ll those of us between Old Saybrook and the CT/RI state line (far eastern coastal Connecticut) we had two squalls with winds in the 20-30 mph range…and torrential rain! People that Friday night on I-95 near exit 90 were hiding under the underpass rather than drive in the intense rain. I could not see the front end of my front hood for about 30 minutes. Yea, no tropical storm in Connecticut…but it was close.
Ok..I'll let go.

No Igor talk? That is gonna be a monster out there.
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Old 09-12-2010, 02:07 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
Ok..I'll let go.

No Igor talk? That is gonna be a monster out there.
Igor went from Cat 1 to Cat 4 in a hurry...amazing these storms can do that... Some models having it at 71W before the recurve.. Havent been following this one but my gut isn't telling me anything either.lol
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Old 09-12-2010, 02:26 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Igor went from Cat 1 to Cat 4 in a hurry...amazing these storms can do that... Some models having it at 71W before the recurve.. Havent been following this one but my gut isn't telling me anything either.lol
Nothing to tell here yet, outside of about 2 days models are everywhere./...
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Old 09-12-2010, 07:22 PM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
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Originally Posted by andthentherewere3 View Post
Well, if we don't eventually get some rain, I fear mother nature will make up for the shortfall with snow.
AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Winters of 2012, 2013, 2014 Could be Frigid (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/36990/combination-of-factors-could-m.asp - broken link)
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Old 09-12-2010, 08:04 PM
 
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Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Winters of 2012, 2013, 2014 Could be Frigid (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/36990/combination-of-factors-could-m.asp - broken link)
A Joe Bastardi special..great reading but...........
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Old 09-12-2010, 08:23 PM
 
Location: CT
207 posts, read 409,321 times
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Originally Posted by andthentherewere3 View Post
well, if we don't eventually get some rain, i fear mother nature will make up for the shortfall with snow.
oh i hope so!!!!
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Old 09-13-2010, 05:56 AM
 
5,065 posts, read 14,400,689 times
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Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Winters of 2012, 2013, 2014 Could be Frigid (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/36990/combination-of-factors-could-m.asp - broken link)
If that does comes to pass, I'm warning everyone right now that I will be in a very mad mood those winters.
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Old 09-13-2010, 06:24 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Before some of you get on me...I might as well update you....its not my fault...THE TROUGH BACKED UP AND ... Yeap...no more 30s......no more cold weather this week--- unreal... 70s for high and 50s for low. I'm so bummed but thats Weather for you...Gotta love the excitment of the unknown.
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Old 09-13-2010, 07:00 AM
 
Location: Westchester County, NY
9,761 posts, read 15,797,750 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Before some of you get on me...I might as well update you....its not my fault...THE TROUGH BACKED UP AND ... Yeap...no more 30s......no more cold weather this week--- unreal... 70s for high and 50s for low. I'm so bummed but thats Weather for you...Gotta love the excitment of the unknown.
Well, you'll be happy to know that (I guess it was a recent change) last night at 11pm OKX was even saying 69/53 for Central Park NYC! But yeah, now all the forecasts are what you're saying. And they added rain for Thursday night into Friday.
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