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The poll is good for trends and not much else. It's not really saying much other than things are trending slighting towards her. Wouldn't be surprised if it shifts back to Trump in a few days though.
Yeah. I know that poll is really questionable. Still, it has tracked the general trend if not the actual numbers rather well. So falling from 7 last week to 2 this week is probably trying to tell us something.
And there is some evidence supporting that. NC for example has Democratic absentee ballot requests about 30 percent higher than in 2012 but the GOP requests have fallen slightly. Might be a short term trend but it might also be a sign of a superior ground game as well.
NC will be interesting to see what the riots do to the polling there.
Johnson ties with Trump in the military vote. Actually, Trump is 1% ahead of Johnson.
5% say they won't vote at all.
Among officers, Johnson is the clear winner with 38.6/28/26% - Johnson/Trump/Clinton.
I am a veteran of 9 years active duty, and a Johnson supporter. But I still don't understand what is going on here.
There are something like 1.5 million active duty military today, so that translates into 500,000 votes or so. That's nice, and while it surely won't swing the election, it may give some voters pause - why do they support Johnson? This poll of the U.S. military has Gary Johnson tied with | Military Times
I think it will cost her more than 1 or 2 points and the election is no longer a long way off. It's only about 6 weeks away.
Most people have short term memories honestly. The effects of this stuff is usually not as large as the media thinks it will be. Like I said, it could go either way for either candidate, but I doubt it will make much of a difference one way or another.
How about the reason they are rioting? That's likely to have some kind of impact.
Maybe it will drive AA turnout high but I doubt it. Unless the rioting lasts long term it will be a blip on the radar in most voters minds. We have a highly polarized electorate that isn't alternating it's view at this point. And we have about 7-9 percent of undecideds who have yet to commit. They are looking for something from these two candidates.
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