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In case you weren't aware, JohnBoy64 was showing a moving average of many polls, not just 1 poll.
As for betting odds, recall that just a week before election day 2016, betting odds had Hillary beating Trump.
No, FiveThirtyEight is 1 place and 1 method.
All the polls were off in 2016 including FiveThirtyEight except 1 or 2 polls. So please, knocking down the money odds but elevating FiveThirtyEight is funny and hypocritical.
Let me repeat one more time, for Democrats to keep the house, they have to win ALL TOSS UP races + save blue races and still they will be short for a majority. They have to also win safe red races under a recession.
Why is it hard for you Democrats accept the fact that Congress is gone only holding it for 4 years unless something extreme happens? it's like you guys keep wishful thinking in a fantasy world.
House is gone unless something big happens like war or Congress promises 2k checks for everybody.
All the polls were off in 2016 including FiveThirtyEight except 1 or 2 polls. So please, knocking down the money odds but elevating FiveThirtyEight is funny and hypocritical.
Once again ... 538 is not a poll. Why is that so hard to understand? They are a moving average of many polls.
Quote:
Let me repeat one more time, for Democrats to keep the house, they have to win ALL TOSS UP races + save blue races and still they will be short for a majority. They have to also win safe red races under a recession.
Why is it hard for you Democrats accept the fact that Congress is gone only holding it for 4 years unless something extreme happens? it's like you guys keep wishful thinking in a fantasy world.
House is gone unless something big happens like war or Congress promises 2k checks for everybody.
Democrats currently have a majority in the House. With the polling averages currently tied, implies that there will be little change in House composition if the election were held today. And ratings of "safe," "toss up" and so on are simply guesses by political pundits, and are constantly changing.
Once again ... 538 is not a poll. Why is that so hard to understand? They are a moving average of many polls.
Weighs pollsters' historical track records through a complex methodology and assigns them values to indicate "Pollster-Introduced Error". It's 1 method. Not just an average of all polls. It's a method.
They have it Republicans with 80% chance of winning Congress to 20% Democrats.
On the website updated 8/2 it says:
Things do not look good for Democrats in the house. Even if Democrats were to win all the races currently designated as toss-ups, plus hold on to all they're favorite to win, they would still wound up short of the number they need for a majority.
I rather be on the 80% chance than the 20% any day. The majority of American feels we are in a recession by 62% to 23% not and blame Democrats. Rasmussen has the GOP with a 5 point lead to win Congress.
I'm not going to argue with you how you view things through your color Democrat glasses. The party in the W.H. always loses the midterms especially under a recession. You want to argue that this will be the only time that it won't go ahead but I wouldn't bet on it.
Rasmussen and Trafalgar are included in the 538 average of many polls....here is what I am paying attention to with Rasmussen, the July 17-21 had Republicans +10, the latest July 31 to Aug 4 has Republicans at +3. That's a 7 point swing in the Dems favor in the last 2 weeks.
I’m planning to support the Republican candidates on my ballot in November, but I do think Republicans need to crank up the messaging, so that people can understand what issues they are championing in November, especially since Democrats have the help of our mainstream media sources.
We all know Joe Biden has been an absolute disaster, but, to their credit, Democrats are getting pretty much everything they want, even if on a smaller scale: lots of new spending, “climate change” spending, etc etc, and they are sticking together and making it happen. And, of course, our media portrays all of this stuff as a net positive, even though many of these bills are filled with pork and will do nothing to really address the issues that people care about right now (inflation, the economy, etc).
Even the jobs report was portrayed as a huge victory, but when you dive into the numbers, lots of these jobs are part-time. Not to say we can celebrate news that was better than expected, but it’s not like we’re getting the full picture here.
So anyway, Republicans need to get on the offense. Yes, the “hiding in the basement and not really having a platform” worked for Joe Biden in 2020, but it’s not going to work for Republicans in 2022. I want to hear more from Republicans as we had into November, with more focus on the net negative things Democrats have done/are doing, and how the policies Republican candidates support will offer a better alternative.
Historically the party that controls the W.H. losses the midterm elections. I expect this to the be the case in Nov, barring some sort of unforeseen significant event that creates a rally around the flag effect. At this point I do not believe it will be a wipeout as in years past. People feel strongly about abortion, particularly the democratic base. While they were unmotivated before, they will likely be hypermotivated come the elections particularly if abortion measures on the ballet. Look at Kansas. The supreme court handled the democrats a lifeline of sorts.
Will not be enough to outgun those disgruntled with the economy and die-hard conservatives in many areas but will likely be enough to stave off losses in areas with a more moderate/slightly democrat lean. Add in the trump effect (if he runs) and the recent gerrymandering in left leaning states.
Rasmussen and Trafalgar are included in the 538 average of many polls....here is what I am paying attention to with Rasmussen, the July 17-21 had Republicans +10, the latest July 31 to Aug 4 has Republicans at +3. That's a 7 point swing in the Dems favor in the last 2 weeks.
All the projections still show a mauling in the house.
Senate is a brighter outlook for the Dems though, but will the bounce from the abortion kerfuffle stick around for 3 months? IDK.
Inflation is still grotesque and that's a VERY tough pill to swallow.
Gas prices have on average come down about $1 which is good, but it went up $2 so we'll see how that goes.
IMO Biden really screwed the pooch on both of those because his admin just wildly blamed everyone else instead of taking a "we're going to fight this and make improvements" angle.
Had he done the latter, he'd be able to play it more like he lead us through it and it's getting better. By blaming Kroger, mom and pop gas stations, putin and just about every other conceivable thing he can't really claim that he fixed anything even if the entire premise is BS.
With the primaries in GA, PA, AZ - it is starting to look like Dems can hold the senate and maybe pick up a seat. That'll be good for America. Looking like the house is headed to maga-town though, voting suppression and gerrymandering as it is.
All the projections still show a mauling in the house.
Senate is a brighter outlook for the Dems though, but will the bounce from the abortion kerfuffle stick around for 3 months? IDK.
Inflation is still grotesque and that's a VERY tough pill to swallow.
Gas prices have on average come down about $1 which is good, but it went up $2 so we'll see how that goes.
IMO Biden really screwed the pooch on both of those because his admin just wildly blamed everyone else instead of taking a "we're going to fight this and make improvements" angle.
Had he done the latter, he'd be able to play it more like he lead us through it and it's getting better. By blaming Kroger, mom and pop gas stations, putin and just about every other conceivable thing he can't really claim that he fixed anything even if the entire premise is BS.
I think the GOP will take the House...that's a pretty steep climb for the Dems. Now the abortion kerfuffle has been around for 50 years and has motivated a big segment of the GOP base during all those years...so I anticipate this issue will stick around for another 50 years for the Pro-Choice voters....it's a very personal issue that runs very deep and has hit countless households both Pro-Life and Pro-Choice....that does not fade. Issues like the killing of a Terrorist leader will last a few days to weeks....Abortion is in a league of its own.
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