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I have never understood the value of the hurricane forecasts, by predicting the upcoming season will be more/less active than in the past. What specific steps are recommended, based on the severity of the hurricane forecast? Do you stock up less water if the season is predicted to be a light one?
I have seen comments that it helps agencies "prepare" for the upcoming season. What do they do differently, based on the forecast?
I am not trying to be difficult - just want to understand the value of the time and effort spent to put together the predictions and what specific actions citizens (or agencies) should do now, based on the forecast.
They have no idea on forecasting number of storms ..its a guess..they can say what they want. 50/50.
Also..disturbance off Florida may form later this week
This was from last night and just posting to show the complexities of our possible first named storm. It may also get kicked out to sea completely by a trough though. So a few options on the table. Keep in mind model guidance continues to shift around West & East. And water temps don’t support a stronger system this time of year this location. So a weaker hybrid storm is most likely. We’ll see if it can eek out a name.
Thurs 14May evening update on storm near FL:
-80% chance formation (NHC) this weekend
-Currently a scattered showers, breezy, blob
-Heavy rain Bahamas & extreme South FL, maybe breezy near coast
-Increased risk of rip currents, higher surf along US East coast but not major
-Looks to stay offshore for now (model guidance better once a storm center actually forms)
-Hurricane Hunter recon planes begin flights into storm later Friday
-If forms, will be right in line with historical early storm locations
Fri 15May invest "90L": No changes to above. Hurricane Hunter flights for today were canceled as storm remains weak. It's sheared and some dry air entanglement (bad for storms). But conditions for development improve into Saturday.
Sat 16May morning - Hurricane Hunter recon aircraft flying through invest 90L now. Models have been shifting more West last 12hours with morning 06z Euro model even taking future Tropical Storm right along NC Outer Banks around Monday.
Sat 12p 16May: 90L looking better organized, recon finding winds in the 30mph’s range, near center and East side of storm. We may see Tropical Depression or Storm declared or PTC’s issued this afternoon (Potential Tropical Cyclone allows Watch/Warnings to be issued for coast, given close approach to NC becoming more likely I wouldn’t be surprised to see one issued or straight to named storm or Depression).
Last edited by Psychoma; 05-16-2020 at 10:55 AM..
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