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Well since you know it all tell us what the grand total Covid death rate is at this moment in the US. Not just NY alone.
First off you can't tell an exact death rate as deaths lag cases so the huge surge we have had in the last few weeks aren't yet reflected in deaths, on the other side the confirmed cases likely are far less than the actual cases.
With that said the 0.04% is completely made up nonsense, and I know that not because I know it all (never suggested I did), but because I can do math. We have so far had approx 140,000 confirmed deaths, you would need to have 350 million cases for 140,000 deaths to result in a 0.04% death rate.
FWIW the confirmed cases are a little over 3.6 million, which puts the death rate at approx 3.8-3.9% depending on the source comparing confirmed deaths to confirmed cases. However, that isn't taking into consideration lag time between cases & deaths nor is it taking into consideration confirmed cases & deaths are just that confirmed, there are likely more in both cases & deaths that we simply do not know (but it isn't 350 million cases)
Overall fatality rate is 2.2%, but that was published in March. So that is way down as of now. But could go up depending on what the hot spots do over the next 2 weeks. But all appears to be trending down!
The mortality rate has gone down due to medical improvements and more at risk individuals remaining home. Still the largest problem right now is the new infections over 60,000 a day putting the US back 2 months. We are going backwards while Europe and Canada are moving ahead.
By a factor of 10? By multiple labs? A mistake at the DMV might be the clerk bringing out the wrong set of tags or charging a new registration fee when it should have been a renewal fee, not bringing out a box of plates for a fleet of delivery trucks when you tried to register your passenger car.
So what is your reasoning for such obviously wrong numbers?
The mortality rate has gone down due to medical improvements and more at risk individuals remaining home. Still the largest problem right now is the new infections over 60,000 a day putting the US back 2 months. We are going backwards while Europe and Canada are moving ahead.
And more of the folks who have the virus are testing (and testing positive) due to greater access to tests. Thus the denominator is higher - yielding a lower case fatality rate.
Florida, for example now has 4500 deaths and 302,000 positive cases which yields a case fatality rate of .15% (Flu is generally estimated at .1%). Obviously, this can change.
First off you can't tell an exact death rate as deaths lag cases so the huge surge we have had in the last few weeks aren't yet reflected in deaths, on the other side the confirmed cases likely are far less than the actual cases.
With that said the 0.04% is completely made up nonsense, and I know that not because I know it all (never suggested I did), but because I can do math. We have so far had approx 140,000 confirmed deaths, you would need to have 350 million cases for 140,000 deaths to result in a 0.04% death rate.
FWIW the confirmed cases are a little over 3.6 million, which puts the death rate at approx 3.8-3.9% depending on the source comparing confirmed deaths to confirmed cases. However, that isn't taking into consideration lag time between cases & deaths nor is it taking into consideration confirmed cases & deaths are just that confirmed, there are likely more in both cases & deaths that we simply do not know (but it isn't 350 million cases)
Your math may be way off.
Right now, using your figures but not your solution: 140,000 deaths divided by 3,600,000 cases yields a .38% (not 3.8%)
BTW I think you would need to have have 35,000,000 cases (not 350,000,000) with 145,000 deaths to yield .04% (CDC once said that just 1 in 10 cases were being detected so this led to this sort of calculation).
(FWIW, I just divide the number of deaths by the number of known cases ...and then move the decimal one place to the right to get a percentage)
Last edited by Quick Commenter; 07-16-2020 at 07:31 AM..
So what is your reasoning for such obviously wrong numbers?
Whoever is reporting near 100% positive is reporting it the way they have been instructed to, by someone for some reason. We'd have to find out who told them to do it that way or why they thought they were supposed to do it that way. Speculation could range from malicious to benign. While there could be some trying to misrepresent data to further an agenda, my guess is that reporting involves more than simply counting positive or negative and some places just have resource constraints. If a lab just doesn't have the manpower to keep up with entering data on 1000 cases per day, they might be forced to focus only on the 100 cases per day that are positive.
The mortality rate has gone down due to medical improvements and more at risk individuals remaining home. Still the largest problem right now is the new infections over 60,000 a day putting the US back 2 months. We are going backwards while Europe and Canada are moving ahead.
Right now, using your figures but not your solution: 140,000 deaths divided by 3,600,000 cases yields a .38% (not 3.8%)
BTW I think you would need to have have 35,000,000 cases (not 350,000,000) with 145,000 deaths to yield .04% (CDC once said that just 1 in 10 cases were being detected so this led to this sort of calculation).
(FWIW, I just divide the number of deaths by the number of known cases ...and then move the decimal one place to the right to get a percentage)
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuickCommenter View Post
Your math may be way off.
Right now, using your figures but not your solution: 140,000 deaths divided by 3,600,000 cases yields a .38% (not 3.8%)
BTW I think you would need to have have 35,000,000 cases (not 350,000,000) with 145,000 deaths to yield .04% (CDC once said that just 1 in 10 cases were being detected so this led to this sort of calculation).
(FWIW, I just divide the number of deaths by the number of known cases ...and then move the decimal one place to the right to get a percentage)
Quote:
Originally Posted by rocafeller05
You can’t make this stuff up.
I know. The math is pretty simple but the poster I corrected somehow completely screwed it up:
“100 people in a community are diagnosed with the same disease; subsequently 9 of them die from the effects of the disease. The CFR at this point in time, therefore, would be 9%.”
So, 9 divided by 100 = .09 Move the decimal over one to the right and you’ve got 9%
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