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Old 12-13-2021, 03:20 PM
 
Location: The ghetto
17,745 posts, read 9,202,314 times
Reputation: 13327

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Quote:
Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns View Post
As if you cared about results at all. You're more concerned with, having been called out for rebuking bostongymjunkie for having "zero viable solutions" and then immediately turning around and admitting there are no viable solutions, coming back and insulting his ideas further instead of doing the courteous thing and either apologizing or just letting it go.

Your motive here is so obviously ego preservation that any results you're projecting into the future, or any interpretation you're making of present results, must be viewed through that lens and taken with an entire shaker of salt. If you ever feel like no one is listening to you, IMO this is why.

Have you lost your mind, son? I'm like EF HUTTON.
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Old 12-13-2021, 05:38 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,135 posts, read 5,103,250 times
Reputation: 4122
Quote:
Originally Posted by bostongymjunkie View Post
Because models don't work like that. They are based on assumptions and they can't be generalized to the degree you're referencing and be accurate. Garbage in, garbage out.
You ignore that the best models out there, including the University of Washington, actually *underpredicted* Covid deaths.
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Old 12-13-2021, 05:42 PM
 
5,116 posts, read 2,672,758 times
Reputation: 3692
Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
You ignore that the best models out there, including the University of Washington, actually *underpredicted* Covid deaths.
Thanks for reinforcing my point.
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Old 12-13-2021, 06:26 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,135 posts, read 5,103,250 times
Reputation: 4122
Quote:
Originally Posted by bostongymjunkie View Post
Thanks for reinforcing my point.
And thank you for reinforcing mine. That those same models forecasting 2-3 million deaths for the GBD scenario, may have been too low.
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Old 12-13-2021, 07:06 PM
 
5,116 posts, read 2,672,758 times
Reputation: 3692
Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
And thank you for reinforcing mine. That those same models forecasting 2-3 million deaths for the GBD scenario, may have been too low.
There is no evidence that use of risk management in dealing with the pandemic would lead to 2-3 million deaths. The mass quarantines are definitely not associated with lower death rates and indeed caused many many collateral deaths from other causes as well as grave long lasting economic damage leading to more poverty, despair and death in the coming months and years. No model needed to see that. Use of medicines and other risk reduction methods in other countries has also led to significant decreases in per capita hospitalizations and death.

Last edited by bostongymjunkie; 12-13-2021 at 07:15 PM..
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Old 12-13-2021, 07:13 PM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
12,443 posts, read 9,540,640 times
Reputation: 15907
Over the past 14 days in Massachusetts, cases are up 78% and death are up 75% - the surge continues in Mass as it does across New England. There is a noticeable increase in vaccination rates over the past couple of months, but those appear to be largely booster shots. 30% of Mass residents are currently vaccinated and boosted as well.

We are averaging 21 deaths per day at present - which isn't good at all. However, at the April 2020 peak of the mortality, we were averaging 170 deaths per day - hopefully we will never revisit those numbers.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

Last edited by OutdoorLover; 12-13-2021 at 07:36 PM..
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Old 12-13-2021, 07:56 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,135 posts, read 5,103,250 times
Reputation: 4122
Quote:
Originally Posted by bostongymjunkie View Post
There is no evidence that use of risk management in dealing with the pandemic would lead to 2-3 million deaths. The mass quarantines are definitely not associated with lower death rates and indeed caused many many collateral deaths from other causes as well as grave long lasting economic damage leading to more poverty, despair and death in the coming months and years. No model needed to see that. Use of medicines and other risk reduction methods in other countries has also led to significant decreases in per capita hospitalizations and death.
I'm still waiting for what these great "risk management" methods are that we all missed out on somehow. I mean other than lose weight, eat healthy, and take vitamins.

All of which, by the way, are infinitely harder than getting people to mask and get a vaccine, as the last 18 months have proven without a doubt.
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Old 12-13-2021, 07:58 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,135 posts, read 5,103,250 times
Reputation: 4122
Quote:
Originally Posted by OutdoorLover View Post
Over the past 14 days in Massachusetts, cases are up 78% and death are up 75% - the surge continues in Mass as it does across New England. There is a noticeable increase in vaccination rates over the past couple of months, but those appear to be largely booster shots. 30% of Mass residents are currently vaccinated and boosted as well.

We are averaging 21 deaths per day at present - which isn't good at all. However, at the April 2020 peak of the mortality, we were averaging 170 deaths per day - hopefully we will never revisit those numbers.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html
Yeah, Baker came out pretty strong today, insisting we are *not* at the same place we were a year ago, thanks to the vaccines. And that he would not consider a statewide mask mandate.

“The main reason there’s so far fewer people in the hospital this year than there were last year, with the presence of Delta and all that comes with it, is because of the vaccines,” he said.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/...ed-baker-says/
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Old 12-13-2021, 08:11 PM
 
5,116 posts, read 2,672,758 times
Reputation: 3692
Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
I'm still waiting for what these great "risk management" methods are that we all missed out on somehow. I mean other than lose weight, eat healthy, and take vitamins.

All of which, by the way, are infinitely harder than getting people to mask and get a vaccine, as the last 18 months have proven without a doubt.
I've already alluded to many more that you've conveniently chosen to ignore, just like you ignore the focused protection and risk reduction methods which have been successfully used in Scandinavian countries and even in states within this one which have led to lower age adjusted mortality rates. Either that or you simply don't read, or at least read anything outside your far left corporatist echo chamber. I'm not even convinced you understand what risk management is about and I certainly don't understand why you insist on obstinately defending the failed policies of the federal response. I seem to recall quite a bit of criticism from you regarding the response in 2020 and now everything is wonderful even though it's the same people doing the same things and there have been exponentially more deaths in 2021 than 2020. It certainly doesn't speak well to your credibility, but I could say that about most comments you make here. And if you really think that the vaccine and masks are any semblance of a replacement for a strong immune system and that encouraging people to get fatter and fatter is a good policy going forward, then I think that says about all that's needed. How sad.
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Old 12-13-2021, 08:12 PM
 
2,066 posts, read 1,074,486 times
Reputation: 1681
I’ll take death over bill gates 5g microchips any day!

*cough* *wheeze* *beeeeeeeeep*
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