Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I'm not hating, but I think the OP is an operative or lobbyist for state Republicans, trying to do recon on Trump's chances....using what's learned here to advise the state GOP.
Doesn't mean it's true, of course. Could be just me projecting.....
As for City Data, I'd say it is very politically diverse honestly.
There is a fair bit of political diversity, but it also lacks in political diversity in views outside of "mainstream" or "establishment" thinking, in my opinion. There is just an OK at best balance of Republicans and Democrats. Regardless of the diversity, it still has a conservative bent. Just visit the PAOC forums. That seems to be the majority opinion, as of 2017, as well:
I take the time to point that out because saying his chances in Pennsylvania are "higher than many (most?) people on this website want it to be" is, in my estimation, false.
Guys, just to remind you all, you say that during these times Biden has quite a bit of a higher lead in the State polls than Clinton, but also just to let you know throughout the spring and summer, the polls shifted quite a bit in 2016, but there were times when Clinton's lead was this high, and things just started to get a lot closer after the debates, and I expect the same thing this year. Debates will throw everything out of place in the polls.
Your point regarding the 2016 election certainly isn't wrong, but there are two fundamental counter-points raised by many posters in this thread pertaining to the fallacy of comparing 2016 to 2020:
- Biden is simply a very different candidate from Hillary Clinton; he is much more personally palatable to a much larger share of the electorate. Nothing will negate that fact.
- There is no more "normal;" or we're now firmly on course for a "new normal" given a now increasingly dire pandemic and economy that's teetering on a global financial crisis. There's no denying that these are critical liabilities for any incumbent President, but it's especially true for one that, literally until yesterday, hadn't been seen as much as wearing a mask in public.
To say anxieties are high about how our country is behind led right now would be the understatement of the century.
Your point regarding the 2016 election certainly isn't wrong, but there are two fundamental counter-points raised by many posters in this thread pertaining to the fallacy of comparing 2016 to 2020:
- Biden is simply a very different candidate from Hillary Clinton; he is much more personally palatable to a much larger share of the electorate. Nothing will negate that fact.
- There is no more "normal;" or we're now firmly on course for a "new normal" given a now increasingly dire pandemic and economy that's teetering on a global financial crisis. There's no denying that these are critical liabilities for any incumbent President, but it's especially true for one that, literally until yesterday, hadn't been seen as much as wearing a mask in public.
To say anxieties are high about how our country is behind led right now would be the understatement of the century.
You definitely have a point and it is very true that Biden is very different from Hillary Clinton. Biden probably doesn't get nearly as much hate, but Hillary also got a lot of excitement out of so many people that Biden does not have. Also one big concern is that Biden sounds like a puppet. If he wins, will Biden really be president? Or will it me the DNC that is controlling him and telling him exactly what to do? I have a strong feeling it is the latter and MANY republicans feel that way.
As for the pandemic, and masks, the country is extremely divided on how to approach it though. Approximately 50-50 in terms of whether to go under lockdown or ignore the virus. It really is split in half a lot, so about half the people love how Trump is handling the pandemic and the other half absolutely despise his handling. The only reason Trump wore a mask was because he was visiting a hospital and it totally makes perfect sense.
I'm not hating, but I think the OP is an operative or lobbyist for state Republicans, trying to do recon on Trump's chances....using what's learned here to advise the state GOP.
Doesn't mean it's true, of course. Could be just me projecting.....
LOL, I will admit that you are correct. I do work part time for the Republican Party and I was actually asked to ask around online on forums like this to see what people have to say, and get an idea of what is going on in different states. I asked in a few other swing state forums as well. And yes I am using a lot of info from what I get here to talk to the GOP Party of specific states on how we can improve and help the Trump campaign get stronger. This is part of my job. You are a smart guy, and well spotted and figured out!
LOL, I will admit that you are correct. I do work part time for the Republican Party and I was actually asked to ask around online on forums like this to see what people have to say, and get an idea of what is going on in different states. I asked in a few other swing state forums as well. And yes I am using a lot of info from what I get here to talk to the GOP Party of specific states on how we can improve and help the Trump campaign get stronger. This is part of my job. You are a smart guy, and well spotted and figured out!
I tend to advise both strong Trump and strong Biden supporters to assume nothing about the likely election result.
I don't think it will be a repeat of 2016, but it will be close. And even now, Trump still has a path to victory both here and nationwide.
Not to mention that "October surprises" seem rather commonplace anymore. I'm not sure where this election's surprise will come from. 2016's was the reopening of the Hillary Clinton email investigation on the eve of the election.
But there are, as even you acknowledge, some fundamental differences this time around, and most of them work against Trump right now.
I think you've probably figured out that I oppose Donald Trump largely on character grounds. (I do find it rather fascinating, however, that he is at once pursuing Black votes in a way I've seen no GOP candidate do recently and sending nod-and-wink signals to white nationalists/supremacists. My evidence is purely anecdotal, but I do sense greater support for Trump among Blacks in the Philadelphia region, but as a percentage of the overall Black/African-American vote, it remains minuscule.) I don't hate Trump as much as I pity him, for (like his sister Mary's book says for the umpteen hundredth time) he has some very serious character defects that make him less than what he presents himself to be as well as damaging to our system fo government and standing in the world.
But I find you a very engaging and appealing person based on how you present yourself here, and I hope your employer finds your work useful.
Response:
The Conservatives who have had enough of New York City are going to exercise their right to vote as new transplants in PA.
I wouldn't be surprised to see an upswing in Red Votes by as much as 10,000 by election day. Will this be enough for Trump?
Your guess is as good as mine but as far as Pennsylvania remaining Red...... I think the it will only continue to grow.
LOL, I will admit that you are correct. I do work part time for the Republican Party and I was actually asked to ask around online on forums like this to see what people have to say, and get an idea of what is going on in different states. I asked in a few other swing state forums as well. And yes I am using a lot of info from what I get here to talk to the GOP Party of specific states on how we can improve and help the Trump campaign get stronger. This is part of my job. You are a smart guy, and well spotted and figured out!
Wait, are you for real? I think you're pulling our leg. Why don't I see this thread in other critical swing states here on C-D, such as Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, etc.?
Response:
The Conservatives who have had enough of New York City are going to exercise their right to vote as new transplants in PA.
I wouldn't be surprised to see an upswing in Red Votes by as much as 10,000 by election day. Will this be enough for Trump?
Your guess is as good as mine but as far as Pennsylvania remaining Red...... I think the it will only continue to grow.
...as its most prosperous and economically productive region gets bluer.
And part of the reason for that is because the Pennsylvania GOP seems to be moving away from the centrism that has characterized it for most of the last century, embodied in politicians like Tom Ridge, Dick Thornburgh and both Bill Scrantons. I mean, is Darryl Metcalfe for real?
Wait, are you for real? I think you're pulling our leg. Why don't I see this thread in other critical swing states here on C-D, such as Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, etc.?
Correct this is for real. I also posted one like this in the Virginia thread (where I currently live) but it got closed by the moderators for some unknown reason. Virginia is a state that we are really trying hard to flip. It has been blue for a long time, pretty much since Obama's first term, and has gotten more blue as time goes on. However, Gov. Northam has really taken things to the next level including: trying to take away our second amendment, and the whole blackface scandal that many of us felt was very overlooked. We have a long way to go but are seeing some positive signs in Staunton VA which was a blue are for a huge amount of time and turned red back in April.
As for Florida, Trump is working on planning a few rallies there in the early Fall, and as you know the RNC will be in Jacksonville. People really talk about Florida being a swing state, but really it is completely Red for the most part. The is a huge democratic population there, but if you actually live in Florida, it really is a strong conservative state. Florida has not had a democratic governor since pre-Jeb Bush. In the FL house of representatives, we have the majority from 73-46. This is HUGE. This is over 2/3 of a majority. We have senate control by 23-17. In 2018 during the governor elections, Gillum was leading in the polls by quite a bit and many people thought the gov. would flip blue, but that never happened. DeSantis won! Obama did manage to flip Florida the two times during his reign, but he was extremely lucky to do so, and it was kind of an upset. McCain was really hated in Florida, and Romney was not very popular either. The main reason why Obama was able to beat Romney was because Florida already had a republican majority, and a lot of swing people that usually vote red, voted for Obama mainly because Romney did not have clear ideas and went back and fourth on a lot and kind of figured that the one you know is better than the one you don't know, and especially due to FL having a huge republican majority in all 3 branches, Obama would not succeed to really pass many laws in Florida due to every state has their own power for the most part. The Supreme Court is also completely red. No liberals. Obama was lucky, but really Florida is NOT a swing state, Trump is the strong favorite to win there. I'm telling you, we have a better chance to flip Virginia then Biden has to flip Florida. Also despite the surges in the coronavirus, many Floridians really still like DeSantis, and when many specific cities were considering imposing mask mandates, it was crazy how many prestigious businesses spoke out and got angry, and therefore they voted not to. Florida is a Red State, and Trump is probably loved the most there out of any other state. Don't believe the polls, Gillum was considerably ahead of DeSantis in the polls. Now by no means am I underestimating Florida, and we definitely need to campaign there which we will, but the media really talks about it as a swing state when really it is more of like a 60-40% chance in Trump's favor.
As for Michigan and Wisconsin, I will post threads like that soon there. Ohio, is kind if like what I said about Florida in many ways but it is not as red as Florida. We MUST campaign in Ohio. Its more like 55-45% chance in Trump's favor.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
