Covid virus in phoenix (Sun City, Surprise: area code, fence, retired)

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

From your link, "People aged 65 or older or those who have at least one chronic health condition make up 72% of those who have been hospitalized and 97% of deaths for COVID-19." That's a telling statistic. It's radically different than NYC. I wonder why? As in, I'm not sure I believe that sentence.

Maybe a nursing home cluster? Does seem a little high. NYC was about 50% (before they blew up their model).

[thinkalot]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Much better/more detail

https://www.maricopa.gov/5460/Coronavirus-Disease-2019

The thing though is the case rate is several days behind since it is based on positives in testing that was done several days ago. It takes that long to get results. And cases are dependent on a very poor testing regime in our state. The county uses, and we should too, hospitalizations which are still increasing. 15 new yesterday, 19 new today. It's a slow rise but just slightly below the models that show us in the relatively early stages and predict 1000 deaths and this thing dragging into June with maximum hospital use on 4/30 and maximum daily deaths on 5/2.

So .01% of the Maricopa County population has been hospitalized and .0015% have died. Those are the only numbers that matter to me. They will never do enough testing to use number of cases for any worthwhile stat.

34 were hospitalized in the last 2 days. How many were released from the hospital in those 2 days?

I think we are lucky we live here.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

From your link, "People aged 65 or older or those who have at least one chronic health condition make up 72% of those who have been hospitalized and 97% of deaths for COVID-19." That's a telling statistic. It's radically different than NYC. I wonder why? As in, I'm not sure I believe that sentence.

I think you are reading it wrong. They are saying, as I read it, that 97% of the deaths are in people who are over 65 OR people who have at least one chronic condition OR BOTH. That is pretty much consistent with all reports to date. So having at least one chronic condition, not good, being 65 or better, not good, being 65 with a chronic condition - kiss your butt goodbye.

Another way of looking at it. Looking a death, was that person over 65? Y/N. Did that person have one or more chronic conditions Y/N? 97% of deaths answer at least one question "Y".

[Bates419]

Mortality associated with COVID in care homes, in select countries.
Just absurdly high everywhere. Sad.

Spain - 57% of total deaths
Ireland - 54% of total deaths
Italy - 53% of total deaths
France - 45 % of total deaths

Really need a quick test that everyone entering these places takes before going in.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I think you are reading it wrong. They are saying, as I read it, that 97% of the deaths are in people who are over 65 OR people who have at least one chronic condition OR BOTH. That is pretty much consistent with all reports to date. So having at least one chronic condition, not good, being 65 or better, not good, being 65 with a chronic condition - kiss your butt goodbye.

Another way of looking at it. Looking a death, was that person over 65? Y/N. Did that person have one or more chronic conditions Y/N? 97% of deaths answer at least one question "Y".

Yep, you are right ^^.

That said, "... 60 percent of American adults now live with at least one chronic condition; 42 percent have more than one. " rand.org/blog/rand-review/2017/07/chronic-conditions-in-america-price-and-prevalence.html

That posted stat is very motivational. I lost 8 pounds over the past 4 weeks. At least 8 more to go.

[belgirl]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Much better/more detail

https://www.maricopa.gov/5460/Coronavirus-Disease-2019

The thing though is the case rate is several days behind since it is based on positives in testing that was done several days ago. It takes that long to get results. And cases are dependent on a very poor testing regime in our state. The county uses, and we should too, hospitalizations which are still increasing. 15 new yesterday, 19 new today. It's a slow rise but just slightly below the models that show us in the relatively early stages and predict 1000 deaths and this thing dragging into June with maximum hospital use on 4/30 and maximum daily deaths on 5/2.

News article today: https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/da...aricopa-county

But you are right that testing results are about 8 days behind, although I am not sure how significant that is.

[belgirl]

Originally Posted by thinkalot

So .01% of the Maricopa County population has been hospitalized and .0015% have died. Those are the only numbers that matter to me. They will never do enough testing to use number of cases for any worthwhile stat.

34 were hospitalized in the last 2 days. How many were released from the hospital in those 2 days?

I think we are lucky we live here.

THIS. Totally agree. I also wonder if it would have been better if we had just concentrated the social distancing efforts on the elderly and those with underlying conditions and kept everything else open and if that strategy would have been just as effective.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by belgirl

News article today: https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/da...aricopa-county

But you are right that testing results are about 8 days behind, although I am not sure how significant that is.

Flattening but still rising, that is my point. I am right about that too. Under the new guidelines just announced we are going to have to run up 14 days of DECLINE before we meet CDC guidelines to relax stay at home orders. The models project that will not start until 4/29 IIRC. That puts us on a 5/13 date for some re-opening. I think it will be sooner, more like the first week of May because our CLI (Covid like illness) symptom curve for ER and Dr's Office visits has taken a very sharp nose dive over the past few days.

[llowllevellowll]

Originally Posted by belgirl

THIS. Totally agree. I also wonder if it would have been better if we had just concentrated the social distancing efforts on the elderly and those with underlying conditions and kept everything else open and if that strategy would have been just as effective.

I'm a fan of re-opening because we're all going to get the virus anyway and I'm simply tired of people not knowing what to do with themselves when they're not being robots at their place of employment, however...

No matter how many people explain this part to you in previous pages, you're still not understanding why that makes zero sense. The virus passes asymptomatically. You would have infected the elderly because we out in society would have passed it to them whether we realized we had it or not (and unless the elderly are taking care of themselves or one another, we're going to give it to them). So, if you we were going to stay working and never shut down, there's almost no reason to socially distance or to hide our elderly and people with underlying conditions. It's foolish.

Remember in Breaking Bad where Mike tells Walt, "That was a half measure when what we needed was a full measure. I'll never make that mistake again." That's what the United States failed to do properly. We've done half-measures and kept this thing alive and prolonged the economic agony. We should have shut down all international flights, locked down borders, closed everything, and went full-on totalitarianism on people and we'd be back up and running and dealing with secondary waves. Instead, we're well behind the 8-ball because we all ran in different directions without a unified front while other countries are indeed re-opening. Our lack of leadership and our great divide ideologically in this country -- we can thank that for our own incompetence.

[autism360]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Flattening but still rising, that is my point. I am right about that too. Under the new guidelines just announced we are going to have to run up 14 days of DECLINE before we meet CDC guidelines to relax stay at home orders. The models project that will not start until 4/29 IIRC. That puts us on a 5/13 date for some re-opening. I think it will be sooner, more like the first week of May because our CLI (Covid like illness) symptom curve for ER and Dr's Office visits has taken a very sharp nose dive over the past few days.

It sounded like the Phase 1 2 and 3 opening requirements were more recommendations than strict orders so the Governor of the state can make the call to open up what they want,when they want. I personally hope Ducey gets the ball rolling in AZ as soon as possible because we will all be exposed to the virus at some point and the only way to build immunity is to be exposed or be injected with the antibodies which will only be done in rare cases. I think they should simply encourage and provide lots of aid for everyone in the high risk group and let everyone else out of their caves in a semi orderly manner so that people can be exposed and develop immunity. If we wait for a vaccine before we open things up our country will be economically destroyed and 100 trillion in debt and it will be like living in a third world country for the next 10-20 years or perhaps even longer. Since the death rate is so low we are at a far greater risk of being harmed by the financial devastation from the shutdown than by the virus.