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Looks like 3 more Russian su-34’s down overnight and this morning? 13 planes down in the last 12 days.
In the long run, I don't see how Russia loses given the fact they are willing to sacrifice however many troops it takes and they are simply willing to wait out the US and allies.
Call it Afghanistan v 2.0.
No, it does not make me happy. Call me a realist who hopes he is incorrect.
Funny part of this is NATO got stronger out of it. Then again, the US has been cooperating with Sweden and Finland for many years and Sweden especially punches well above their weight class.
Long term, the US + NATO + Japan + SK +AUS +NZ... etc need to figure out a long-term plan. China is rising and gathering minions (Like Russia, like many along its road initiative. "The west" better have its long-term game plan figured out.
With the A-50 airborne watchdog gone, Ukraine is able to take out enemy fighters.
That's the story being told by Ukraine. The A-50 was able to detect radar systems and block them, making the air safer for its fighters, and visible to its anti-aircraft systems. Anti-aircraft systems are cumbersome to move, although some can be moved. The A-50 detected them all and sent deployed fighters accordingly.
At some point Russia will cobble together enough parts to put another A-50 in the air. Shooting down that, too, will become a priority for Ukraine. Perhaps they will be successful in taking a third one down. In the meantime, though, Russian pilots must fly into dangerous territory.
Even the number of missile attacks has dropped with the A-50 gone.
Ukraine continues to receive complex weapons. Most weapons, in fact, like the F-16, are not even in Ukraine yet. At least, not officially.
In time Russia will lose air superiority. Without air superiority, can they possibly keep the territory they are taking?
Israel has promised support for Ukraine. They tried to be neutral, but now it is impossible for them.
With the A-50 airborne watchdog gone, Ukraine is able to take out enemy fighters.
That's the story being told by Ukraine. The A-50 was able to detect radar systems and block them, making the air safer for its fighters, and visible to its anti-aircraft systems. Anti-aircraft systems are cumbersome to move, although some can be moved. The A-50 detected them all and sent deployed fighters accordingly.
At some point Russia will cobble together enough parts to put another A-50 in the air. Shooting down that, too, will become a priority for Ukraine. Perhaps they will be successful in taking a third one down. In the meantime, though, Russian pilots must fly into dangerous territory.
Even the number of missile attacks has dropped with the A-50 gone.
Ukraine continues to receive complex weapons. Most weapons, in fact, like the F-16, are not even in Ukraine yet. At least, not officially.
In time Russia will lose air superiority. Without air superiority, can they possibly keep the territory they are taking?
Israel has promised support for Ukraine. They tried to be neutral, but now it is impossible for them.
It makes me sad to see the occasional person actually cheering for the Russians.
I understand being against Ukraine aid from a debt / US readiness perspective. Actually cheering for the Russians. Wow.
The weapons given to Ukraine are mostly old stock that will need to be replaced soon. A big chunk of the money earmarked for Ukraine actually goes to the US military. Because American weapons work so well, orders for the HIMARS and patriot missile systems are going through the roof. That means high-paying jobs for Americans who then contribute to the tax system. It's a win-win all around.
Also, this war gives all countries a valuable real-time feedback on how to prepare for future wars. Big countries like the USA to small countries like Taiwan are taking notes.
The USA, for example, has dropped the future attack helicopter program and opted for drones instead. The Pentagon is working on the Duplicator Program that aims to build over 10,000 cheap drones in just a few years. Supporting Ukraine, IMO, is a small price to pay now than paying much more to deal with a stronger and more aggressive Russia in the future.
And let's not forget China, North Korea, and Iran who are watching to see the outcome of this war. If Russia prevails in Ukraine, they will be given a green light to attack others.
Russia is supposedly attacking more across open fields than along tree lines like before. Does this mean less resistance from Ukraine? Russia feels pressed for time? Something else?
Quote:
Originally Posted by lancers
Dead Ukranians are good for the US economy. Quite the investment. FFS.
Putin is claiming 444,000 dead Ukrainians, Zelensky says 31,000.
They're both liars, but my guess is that the real number is closer to Putin's number.
Graham says we'll fight Ukraine to the last Ukrainian.
Graham says we'll fight Ukraine to the last Ukrainian.
That’s good for Monsanto, BlackRock and other US corporate landowners in ukraine. And they will continue to import to Europe (Poland, Germany, etc.), bankrupting farmers there, just as US corporations supply natural gas to otherwise cut-off European industries.
Russia earns around $190M dollars per day from the sale of refined oil products - that's $70B per year.
Or it was!
Beginning Mar 1, Russia has halted the export of gasoline for six months.
Going back to the beginning of sanctions, the discount Russia was forced to offer to induce buyers was around 20$/barrel. That decreased to 15$ as shippers bypassed sanctions, but in the fall of 2023 sanctions were extended to cover shippers, and now the discount is rising again to 20$.
Tax revenue from the sale of oil peaked in April of 2022 at $16B. That was before price caps and oil sanctions, after which they plunged to $8B. Russia, unhappy with price caps, found ways to circumvent them and managed to ramp them up to $11B, but now they are back down to $8B.
Of course banning the export of gasoline will result in further cuts to tax revenue.
All of this is taking place even as volume of exports - the measure often used by the media - has been holding fairly steady.
Russia is home to 44 mega-refineries - refineries which must be kept working 24 hours a day in order to keep product costs low. In the past they were able to sell refined products to western countries, but India and China would rather buy crude and refine it themselves.
So Russia is being forced to cut back. They cannot store huge amounts of refined products, but must refine enough for their own use and the refineries that function must be kept running 24 hours a day.
The "sanctions don't work" crowd wants you to accept their bumper sticker mentality and not question it. It's a little more complicated than that.
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FFS.