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From my detailed research and analysis...it is true that Russia will tire of this war and leave.
They had no idea that the Ukraine would receive the level of support it has. They sure didn't get that support the last time Russia went in.
But I do not believe he will leave until he has inflicted maximum damage and suffering upon Ukraine...and he will resort to anything that will further that mission.
Including carrying out extended heavy missle and air strikes on urban areas.
That is the standard Russian method...and, uncharacteristically, they have not done that. Though they are starting to.
Not discrediting your research, but the real world performance of Pooter's, (childish, yes), army has been pitiful. All we hear is talk about how Russia could level Ukraine if they wanted but we all see how they are performing.
But I don't know if he would go nuclear...the only Country to ever use weapons like that on another, is the U.S
Though, it may be more a worry of geographical proximity than any moral dilemma.
We will see.0
There's another reason he won't:
Former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday that if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons in the nation, the US and its allies would destroy Russia's troops and equipment in Ukraine as well as sink its Black Sea fleet.
“We would respond by leading a NATO — a collective — effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea,†he said https://nypost.com/2022/10/03/us-wou...ukes-petraeus/
I try to "know" rather than just "believe"...so I study, research, and educate myself.
I've put in hundreds of hours on this. I would be glad to share facts and information.
What information, facts, and knowledge do you base your claim upon that Putin's (your childish "Pooter") Army "isn't that capable"?
I would be interested to know...as it goes completely
against my research.
Well, to kick off the invasion, Putin sent a massive caravan of tanks and armored trucks down the highway to capture Kyiv. The caravan ground to a halt because.....they ran out of gas? Also, because they apparently didn't think the Ukrainians would shoot back. And because they failed to capture the airport. So they turned around and scooted back to Russia. That was our first inkling that Russia's army wasn't competent. Didn't require any research to see that.
From my detailed research and analysis...it is true that Russia will tire of this war and leave.
They had no idea that the Ukraine would receive the level of support it has. They sure didn't get that support the last time Russia went in.
But I do not believe he will leave until he has inflicted maximum damage and suffering upon Ukraine...and he will resort to anything that will further that mission.
Including carrying out extended heavy missle and air strikes on urban areas.
That is the standard Russian method...and, uncharacteristically, they have not done that. Though they are starting to.
A few of us on this board have to research into this ourselves. Putin can commit war crimes but not much outside of that and the west will just keep the $300 Billion in frozen Russian assets to help re-build Ukraine.
You sound offended that you aren't being universally agreed with just because you've done lots of research. You can't prove that your prediction is correct. There's no closed-form solution for military victory. Maybe reading isn't the best way to an understanding. Maybe you're reading all the wrong books as Will Hunting once famously said. Perhaps the answer's not in the details of numbers of men, materiel, road conditions, frost depth and technology. Perhaps it's in the big picture that's already quite stark if you're able to see it. Understand that a bunch of people here see a Russian military that has failed at so many 101s as it were that the ending is now almost a foregone conclusion. Institutional failures that can't be fixed with troop numbers, re-arming or money. They can't do logistics. They just don't know how to project power at all. They either don't understand combined arms or they've never practiced it. Their command structure is inflexible and hierarchical. Troops in the field who lose commanders or lose comms or meet with the inevitable surprise of the Ukrainians not behaving per plans are stymied and rendered inert. Incapable of adaptation. Troop training is terrible and morale is worse. Weapons, ammo and cold weather uniforms have been plundered by layers upon layers of the Russian kleptocracy. They often fight units that have never trained together and have no cohesion.
I haven't been right about the outcome of this war. I didn't foresee the impacts of institutional thievery and the Potemkin arsenal of flawed and inferior weaponry and I damn sure didn't foresee the hard bark on those Ukrainians. What I did suspect from a 40,000' big picture point of view was that the Russians were vastly inferior to the U.S. military. I was pretty sure we could beat them. It's the Roman Legion effect. We've been fighting all around the world since 1941 basically without relent. The non-obvious good side to that is that our military has forgotten more about warfare and combat than Russia and China will ever know. We have decades of hard lessons learned from both victories and defeats teaching us how to train, how to command troops, tactics, how to fight in different environments, synergy between weapons systems and between branches of the service, communications, tech, logistics on and on. Rome didn't fight so well because of their tech it was because of institutional lore and experience of fighting non-stop for centuries. That stuff matters more than whether or not your tank turrets blow off or how many men you have. I was pretty sure Russia might have some real Achilles heels but I had no idea it was this bad. I also had no idea Ukraine would be this tough either.
When a freshman in college fails at 'everything 101' you don't need to analyze their IQ to forecast their graduation order.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AbsoluteVirtue
Not discrediting your research, but the real world performance of Pooter's, (childish, yes), army has been pitiful. All we hear is talk about how Russia could level Ukraine if they wanted but we all see how they are performing.
Yes...there were many things that I did not expect either...based upon history.
Mainly...that Russia would not employ their standard strategic & tactical method of surrounding a area...relentlessly pounding it with heavy artillery, rocket & air strikes...and once it is at least 70% decimated...then they send in the tanks & ground troops to roll over what is left.
They did not do that this time.
Also...anyone that said they figured that the U S. would give them over ONE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS is not telling the truth...NOBODY figured that. Nor did Russia. Of course ..that has made all the difference. I almost can't believe it.
The other great unknown it just how crazy is Putin over all the help Ukraine has gotten? How vicious and desperate is he now...and how far will he go to assure that the Ukraine is defeated? How little does he care about what his costs would be?
It is a fact that he has the resources to ultimately destroy them.
But...as far as understanding what is going on, and how that relates to anything else....most watch some news on television or listen on radio (always heavily skewed and biased one way or another) rather than take the time to learn about the specific campaign, how that relates to other military conflicts, or known Military Strategies in general...and they think they really know something about it.
The first thing I do when I start to discuss the Russia--Ukraine conflict now, is ask "So, what do you think of General Surovikin taking command and what's your opinion of his efforts in Chechnya and Syria?"
If they lack that most basic knowledge of the conflict...I know they will have little of anything solid to contribute to any real academic discussion of the issue or any fact based, reasoned potential outcomes.
Of course...they will be sure to proffer their emotion based opinion and predictions. Which, I will admit, could be as good as any other...and they saved themselves all that effort I put into it.
Yes...there were many things that I did not expect either...based upon history. Mainly...that Russia would not employ their standard strategic & tactical method of surrounding a area...relentlessly pounding it with heavy artillery, rocket & air strikes...and once it is at least 70% decimated...then they send in the tanks & ground troops to roll over what is left.
They did not do that this time.
Also...anyone that said they figured that the U S. would give them over ONE HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS is not telling the truth...NOBODY figured that. Nor did Russia. Of course ..that has made all the difference. I almost can't believe it.
The other great unknown it just how crazy is Putin over all the help Ukraine has gotten? How vicious and desperate is he now...and how far will he go to assure that the Ukraine is defeated? How little does he care about what his costs would be?
It is a fact that he has the resources to ultimately destroy them.
But...as far as understanding what is going on, and how that relates to anything else....most watch some news on television or listen on radio (always heavily skewed and biased one way or another) rather than take the time to learn about the specific campaign, how that relates to other military conflicts, or known Military Strategies in general...and they think they really know something about it.
The first thing I do when I start to discuss the Russia--Ukraine conflict now, is ask "So, what do you think of General Surovikin taking command and what's your opinion of his efforts in Chechnya and Syria?"
If they lack that most basic knowledge of the conflict...I know they will have little of anything solid to contribute to any real academic discussion of the issue or any fact based, reasoned potential outcomes.
Of course...they will be sure to proffer their emotion based opinion and predictions. Which, I will admit, could be as good as any other...and they saved themselves all that effort I put into it.
That is what they have been trying to do, mostly unsuccessfully. It did work in Mariuopol and some places in Luhansk, but failed elsewhere.
That is what they have been trying to do, mostly unsuccessfully. It did work in Mariuopol and some places in Luhansk, but failed elsewhere.
Early on...before they got the missle defense systems, they were more vulnerable.
But at no time have I seen Russia's typical relentless air and rocket strikes...not anything like usual.
If I could lead a negotiation...I'd agree to break off a little bit of that Donbas area, and do my best to get Putin to take it (so he can present some success), in trade for ending this horrible situation. It would be a very small price to pay...especially compared to drawing this out way into next year.
Thousands are about to freeze and suffer unimaginable pain. Something has to be done...and soon.
I'm a Veteran, and understand Military Operations & Tactics.
Most don't...and have no Military experience.
By any reasonable standard...Russia has already won.
They have destroyed the other Country...it is blasted to rubble, and it's population has left and living as refugees.
They have done everything short of occupation and taking it over. And they continue to pound it. Countless will probably freeze to death in the coming winter months.
And he could wipe it off the map any minute he decided to.
Russia's territory is untouched.
That is what a Military win looks like...but, for some reason, the emotional, (that function on headtrips instead of facts and reality), will not accept that fact.
I, too, am a veteran. I know military tactics and operations too.
I totally disagree with you.
The Russians have not won this war. Nor have they lost it- yet. But their loss is inevitable now.
They've made so many serious mistakes that it's only a matter of time before they are forced to completely retreat and go back home. Their full-scale retreat began in October when they abandoned the Khershon region that had been occupied very early in the war.
Ukraine is very far from being blasted to rubble. The country's infrastructure has been damaged severely in places, but not everywhere, and Ukrain's government is still intact and functional.
And most of her people are still living there and never left. Many who did leave have returned, and as more Russians leave, many more will return.
Are the Ukrainians suffering? Yes. A lot. But they're not refugees in a barren, blasted land. Alone, with no help.
They're still in their homes, helping each other as best they can. Some will freeze to death, but most who are in danger of freezing will find shelter, offered by their neighbors, families and friends.
The Russians cannot pound them hard enough nor long enough now to stop the Ukrainians from winning. Russia simply lacks the means and the ability to continue waging all-out war.
Putin waged as much total war on them as he could, and he reached his limits on that ability. More importantly, so have his people. And with each loss, the Ukrainians have grown stronger.
I'm a Veteran, and understand Military Operations & Tactics.
Most don't...and have no Military experience.
By any reasonable standard...Russia has already won.
They have destroyed the other Country...it is blasted to rubble, and it's population has left and living as refugees.
They have done everything short of occupation and taking it over. And they continue to pound it. Countless will probably freeze to death in the coming winter months.
And he could wipe it off the map any minute he decided to.
Russia's territory is untouched.
That is what a Military win looks like...but, for some reason, the emotional, (that function on headtrips instead of facts and reality), will not accept that fact.
You defeat an enemy by destroying their capability and will to fight, I don't see that has happened yet and don't think it will unless Putin goes nuclear.
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Perhaps the answer's not in the details of numbers of men, materiel, road conditions, frost depth and technology. Perhaps it's in the big picture that's already quite stark if you're able to see it. Understand that a bunch of people here see a Russian military that has failed at so many 101s as it were that the ending is now almost a foregone conclusion. Institutional failures that can't be fixed with troop numbers, re-arming or money. They can't do logistics. They just don't know how to project power at all. They either don't understand combined arms or they've never practiced it. Their command structure is inflexible and hierarchical. Troops in the field who lose commanders or lose comms or meet with the inevitable surprise of the Ukrainians not behaving per plans are stymied and rendered inert. Incapable of adaptation. Troop training is terrible and morale is worse. Weapons, ammo and cold weather uniforms have been plundered by layers upon layers of the Russian kleptocracy. They often fight units that have never trained together and have no cohesion. 