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Who will win in Wednesday Vote?? Which side has more numbers ?
MPs will almost certainly vote tomorrow against choosing to have a no deal, which then leaves the only remaining option as voting to ask the EU for an extension to the process.
The EU then has 3 options I think, refuse outright which will also then lead to a no deal exit, accept the request without conditions to kick the can down the road which I think is unlikely, or probably most likely accept the request but with conditions, perhaps making the UK hold another referendum would be their condition for granting an extension. They might also stipulate that if Leave wins the second referendum then its a no deal exit, if remain wins then Brexit is cancelled.
The fourth, but again unlikely imo, option of course is for the UK government to unilaterally rescind the Article 50 process as the European Court ruled it had the power to do last year. That would stop the process altogether but would also rip the Conservative Party apart even more than it already is and probably lead to a general election so May is unlikely to go down that road I think.
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Originally Posted by MrRational
But haven't most (or enough) of them recanted ?
I'm gobsmacked that the Q hasn't gone back to a referendum re-vote.
I'm a US citizen, like you. My take on this is that the UK citizens were told that this would be a once in a lifetime vote.
The addition to the situation is the abhorrent handling of the situation by the EU. When they realized that the UK was prepared to walk, which is their right, they have now decided to try to force the UK to put up a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which would break the Good Friday Agreement, which has kept the peace for 20 years, or they want to hold Northern Ireland hostage. This has turned off people who formerly were happy enough to stay.
The EU has a provision to leave. The UK exercised that right. Now the EU wants to hold part of the UK hostage, or force them to break the Good Friday Agreement.
Why should the UK break their word and hold another vote, when you look at it that way.?
Why, because the public were lied to. Both sides playing hardball. No reason why the EU should change its rules on borders, simply to help out a British government in strife over an ill thought out process on leaving in the first place.
It has been suggested another vote would reverse the original decision, if went ahead. The very least on calling a populist vote, the frame work on leaving should have been well in progress, instead nothing was prepared. Highly suggestive, that the government completely missed the signals, expecting the status quo to remain and hence done nothing.
One can hardly blame EU for British dithering and poor performance for any detail. Britain, is the one leaving, onus on them to have crossed the T's and dotted the I's.
I'm a US citizen, like you. My take on this is that the UK citizens were told that this would be a once in a lifetime vote.
The addition to the situation is the abhorrent handling of the situation by the EU. When they realized that the UK was prepared to walk, which is their right, they have now decided to try to force the UK to put up a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which would break the Good Friday Agreement, which has kept the peace for 20 years, or they want to hold Northern Ireland hostage. This has turned off people who formerly were happy enough to stay.
The EU has a provision to leave. The UK exercised that right. Now the EU wants to hold part of the UK hostage, or force them to break the Good Friday Agreement.
Why should the UK break their word and hold another vote, when you look at it that way.?
One side of the border will be the EU and the other side is the UK. Given that the UK will not be part of the EU and goods exchanged between the two might be subject to import duties and maybe different regulatory regimes clearly there will need to be some sort of hard border, either between Ireland and Northern Ireland, or between the latter and the mainland UK.
NO. But Brexit may be the beginning of the end for
You will have 4 major power-blocs in the world: Russia, China, EU, and the English-speaking countries. This won't happen overnight, but it looks more likely than not to happen eventually.
You do know that the USA will account for 2/3 of the GDP of the richest English speaking nations. Trump is already demanding greater access into the UK for US agricultural products and the removal of non tariff barriers. You think that the UK wants that? Well the UK will account less than 10% of the GDP of this bloc, so guess how much bargaining power it will have.
Germany will seem like a benign giant accounting for only 1/4 of the EU GDP with the departure of the UK.
I think that some Brexiters think that the US and the UK will sit down like equals. Try asking Canada how that works out for them dealing with a neighbor with a GDP 12x its size. Poor Justin wakes up in the middle of the night screaming "No Donald, no. Dont beat me!"
London will work out fine as it is a global city and its time zone allows a 24 hour connectivity given that its lies between Asia and the USA. But the rest of the UK! .
Last edited by caribny; 03-12-2019 at 09:51 PM..
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