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Carolina Blue not "guessing" on how many homes are for sale in these neighborhoods. I have been looking to buy for over 6 months.
Follow link and click on individual neighborhoods and you will see what is for sale. This doesn't include all of the empty "shadow" inventory that is owned by the banks.
Longview- 45 homes for sale
Providence Downs - 117 homes for sale
Skycroft - 50 homes for sale
Highgate - 40 homes for sale
etc, etc..
Moderator cut: no Realtor links
A lot of these neighborhoods were never built out. There are many lots left to build houses on as well.
Now if you think that there are that many buyers in this price range to stabilize this price point than I guess I am wrong. But I have been watching like I said for over 6 months. You also would think that typically most people don't try to sell their houses during Dec, Jan, and Feb because of the time of the year and wait until spring to put the house on the market. I bet come spring these neighborhoods will be swamped with more for sale signs.
Also, please drive through some of these neighborhoods and see for yourself the "shadow" inventory of homes that are vacant and owned by the bank that are not in the MLS system yet. Very scary.
Points well taken, but to be clear, your “50 to 75 percent of homes are for sale” statement includes a significant portion of supposed “inventory homes” and lots that have not even started construction, and you are not suggesting that “50 to 75 percent” of “existing home owners” in these communities have their homes on the market for sale right now. Your original statement was that that that high percentage of homes were for sale currently…oh and by the way, there are still inventory homes and vacant lots in these communities (see below).
Quote:
Originally Posted by mmoorecharlotte
Excellent post MikeyKid!! Homes above 500k are NOT moving and will have no other choice but to come down in price either by a seller reduction or a bank foreclosure/short sale. No one is buying them for several reasons.
Look at how many homes are for sale in LongView, Chateline, Skybrooke, Providence Downs and Providence Downs South. I dare say that 50-75% of the homes are for sale in these neighborhoods. And are these neighborhoods even built out? Are there empty lots still for sale?Scary indeed for these price points.
I wonder what price point will have the highest fillings? <250k or > 500K homes?
yeah this is what I was trying to say from the beginning... The sub <250k homes have most likely seen the wave of foreclosures by now because that's where the investors and subprimes were mostly buying. The next wave is going to be the prime folks in the higher points and that's the real potential trouble. Who is going to buy off that inventory?!
Honestly, list price is almost a useless stat at this point. As Steve points out everyone is jockeying to get the most dollar possible and most either still don't get it, refuse to believe it, or simply need a certain price to get out. Either of those 3 options aren't pretty. IMO you're taking a significant risk spending over 400k unless you plan to be in the home for a very long time... even then, you're likely to save money renting for a year and buying a comp for much less after. Buying <250k right now is a much safer option.
Median Household Income 2008 - $53,125 Using same link you did here
Now if you read the notes on either of these, you have to find what $s they are expressed in. The 1999 numbers are in 1999 dollars since when reported, they did not know what inflation would be to 2008. The 2008 numbers were specified in 2008 dollars. Thus, in order to compare the two, you have to put them on same scale. In order to do this you have to get the conversion from the Statistical Abstract. This can be found here. The 2010 Statistical Abstract
if 1999 income was specified in 2008 dollars we have $60157.58. But actual reported income is $53,125 a difference of $7,033. Welcome to the world of government spin as they do this to put a on things.
In conclusion:
2000 Adjusted household income for Charlotte - $60,158
2008 Adjusted household income for Charlotte - $53,125
2000 Adjusted household income for Charlotte - $60,158
2008 Adjusted household income for Charlotte - $53,125
Income dropped by 11.69%
I hope this clears it up for you.
OK... so to keep this in perspective quoting from an earlier post in this thread and the article - the median home value went from about $130K in 2000 to about $200K in 2008, which is about a 65% increase.
So in that same time, income went down about 11% (adjusted to inflation) and home prices went up about 65%. ouch - how doesn't that constitute a housing bubble?!
Oh it's much worse than this. What we are seeing here is a symptom of a problem that isn't even related to Charlotte except for maybe that we have two big institutions here enabling it. However that part is really irrelevant.
I recommend a listen to this. It's an opinion but it's hard to argue with the analysis. I've tried, I wish I could. If anything else, it does give a good background on how our money works these days. It takes a while to get through the material.
Median Household Income 2008 - $53,125 Using same link you did here
Now if you read the notes on either of these, you have to find what $s they are expressed in. The 1999 numbers are in 1999 dollars since when reported, they did not know what inflation would be to 2008. The 2008 numbers were specified in 2008 dollars. Thus, in order to compare the two, you have to put them on same scale. In order to do this you have to get the conversion from the Statistical Abstract. This can be found here. The 2010 Statistical Abstract
if 1999 income was specified in 2008 dollars we have $60157.58. But actual reported income is $53,125 a difference of $7,033. Welcome to the world of government spin as they do this to put a on things.
In conclusion:
2000 Adjusted household income for Charlotte - $60,158
2008 Adjusted household income for Charlotte - $53,125
Income dropped by 11.69%
I hope this clears it up for you.
Your calculaitons don't jibe with the Bureau of Labor Statistics link below. Use it to make the comparison you are trying to do. You can go backwards and forwards, from 2000 to 2008, or from 2008 to 2000...
If you don't believe what I have presented, then so be it. I have thoroughly explained it and I don't get into the battle of the web links. I backed up what I said and by using the very numbers you presented earlier and now you jumped to something else, I assume, because they don't fit your theory. (whatever that might be)
If you don't believe it, then fine, my posts speak for themselves.
If you don't believe what I have presented, then so be it. I have thoroughly explained it and I don't get into the battle of the web links. I backed up what I said and by using the very numbers you presented earlier and now you jumped to something else, I assume, because they don't fit your theory. (whatever that might be)
If you don't believe it, then fine, my posts speak for themselves.
No, no, no. I'm not saying I don't belive you. Its 2010, so let's get off to a new start. Let's not start up the same ole "pi$$ing" contests from before. Yes, I'm throwing you the first bone, LOL. All I'm pointing out is, for example, MikeyKid just noted that "the median home value went from about $130K in 2000 to about $200K in 2008, which is about a 65% increase." But he didn't adjust that number for inflation. That's similar to the argument you're making. All I'm saying is that, for example, a $130K home in 2000 is very different from a $200K home in 2000. I remember looking at homes back around 2000 that were in the range of $130K to $150K and saying, wow! I can't afford these mansions. And for $200K, OMG! I'm just pointing out my "opinion" that you are not making an apples to apples comparision. But for the record, I know that some of what you've said is correct. Again, its the logic I have a problem with.
Carolina Blue not "guessing" on how many homes are for sale in these neighborhoods. I have been looking to buy for over 6 months.
Follow link and click on individual neighborhoods and you will see what is for sale. This doesn't include all of the empty "shadow" inventory that is owned by the banks.
Longview- 45 homes for sale
Providence Downs - 117 homes for sale
Skycroft - 50 homes for sale
Highgate - 40 homes for sale
etc, etc..
Moderator cut: no Realtor links
A lot of these neighborhoods were never built out. There are many lots left to build houses on as well.
Are these neighborhoods in weddington/waxhaw area? I'm wondering what site you are using bc I did a search and I got completely different numbers.
I did a search on a website and had to filter out different cities as other cities came up in the search for those subdivisions like greensboro.
When adding the correct filter, I get different numbers:
Longview: 31 homes
Highgate : 31 homes
Providence Downs & Providence Downs South: 50
These are only SFH. But even adding lots/land, some are still lower than yours.
You have to keep in mind, these subdivisions are new(er) and they have much higher inventory than some of the established subdivisions.
Yes, my numbers are correct and were taken right from a real estate web site. These neighborhoods are all in Union County and I had a direct link in my previous post to the real estate web site that clearly showed and supported the numbers that I posted, but it was deleted by the moderator. Unfortunately, do to the forum rules, you can't post real estate links.
Try googling " weddington rXXXXXX" then click on the neigborhoods tab on the left hand side and you will be able to view every neighborhood in Union County and all the houses and lots for sale in each one of them. And again these numbers do not include the shadow inventory that is not listed in the MLS system. You should try driving in these neighborhoods yourself to see the empty houses just sitting/ unkept lawns and the houses that weren't completed by the builders. ( Boarded up ). Providence Downs South has at least 2 homes that I know of that are boarded up and not finished. One of them just sold for around 268K.
Longview makes you pay an $80,000 membership fee just to join the club if you want to buy a home on the golf course side. You also have to pay them a monthly fee of around $750/month to golf even if you don't golf. This is on top of the $3,400 HOA yearly dues . Now I ask you, how are they going to sell over 45 homes in Longview most of which are priced from 1.5- 3.5 million dollars? Are there that many qualified buyers that can afford the homes, fees, and HOA dues? And this is just one neighborhood in Union County.
Just wait till the spring. I have a bad feeling the number of homes for sale will be rising quite high compared to now. And lastly, when the banks finally release their shadow inventory watch out.
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on things. 
