Elmwood park , What is happing to it? (Elgin, Maywood: appointed, to live in)

[Humboldt1]

Just a guess, but the people living in Elmwood Park know far more about their neighborhood than those of us who do not.

And standing on street corners looking and acting like thugs isn't exactly not doing something wrong. I call police when people try to do that crap on my street. It may take 30-60 mins for them to show but when they do the people leave. If they weren't doing anything wrong they would not have to leave. But what do I know, this is only my 3rd year in Humboldt Park. I am sure people who live in Lincoln Park and Wicker Park think they know my area better.

[ndfmnlf]

To those who love to just spew stats to justify their arguments, the E.P. village board president stated last night at the village meeting that 31 homes were burglarized in 2008;

Okay, let's do the math based on the information you supplied. 31 burglaries as of August 19, 2008 translates to 4 burglaries per month or 48 burglaries on an annualized basis. What is the historical rate of burglaries for Elmwood Park? Well, according to this: http://www.city-data.com/city/Elmwoo...-Illinois.html the absolute number of burglaries ranged from 26 to 56 per year between 1999 to 2006.

What this means is the year-to-date number of burglaries for EP is well within the historical norm. There has been no spike in burglaries. There were actually more burglaries in 1999 compared to 2008, based on the numbers you gave us.

Statistics is hard to understand, especially when you already have preconceived notions in your head that you refuse to change.

[Johnny Northside]

Originally Posted by ndfmnlf

Okay, let's do the math based on the information you supplied. 31 burglaries as of August 19, 2008 translates to 4 burglaries per month or 48 burglaries on an annualized basis. What is the historical rate of burglaries for Elmwood Park? Well, according to this: http://www.city-data.com/city/Elmwoo...-Illinois.html the absolute number of burglaries ranged from 26 to 56 per year between 1999 to 2006.

What this means is the year-to-date number of burglaries for EP is well within the historical norm. There has been no spike in burglaries. There were actually more burglaries in 1999 compared to 2008, based on the numbers you gave us.

Statistics is hard to understand, especially when you already have preconceived notions in your head that you refuse to change.

Reading is a skill. The mayor said there were 31 homes burglarized. That means any commercial property burglaries, which would have been lumped into your all-knowing historical statistics, weren't included in the 2008 to-date numbers. (Edit: And if the mayor was not including garage break-ins, the numbers this year would be even higher)

[BRU67]

Originally Posted by Humboldt1

Just a guess, but the people living in Elmwood Park know far more about their neighborhood than those of us who do not.

And standing on street corners looking and acting like thugs isn't exactly not doing something wrong. I call police when people try to do that crap on my street. It may take 30-60 mins for them to show but when they do the people leave. If they weren't doing anything wrong they would not have to leave. But what do I know, this is only my 3rd year in Humboldt Park. I am sure people who live in Lincoln Park and Wicker Park think they know my area better.

With all due respect Humbolt, you've had plenty to say on here about communities and neighborhoods you do not live in also. Pot. Kettle. Black.

I think most people in this thread are commenting more on human behavior than they are on Elmwood Park in any case.

Calling police is a great idea, no matter how trivial the thing may seem. I doubt the PD in Elmwood Park would take 30-60 minutes to respond to a call. But, again, I don't live there

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by johnm68

Crime statistics are not the only mirror of the decline of a neighborhood or community. There are also quality of life issues--often little things, which can lead to a place not being as pleasant as it was 10 years ago. I don't spend much time in Elmwood Park, but I suspect that some of the problems that folks are discussing here stems from these. For example:

1) Public drinking
2) Loud gatherings late at night
3) littering
4) loitering
5) graffiti
6) general anti-social behavior (which covers a multitude of sins)

Even though some of these behaviours are illegal, cops don't spend a serious amount of energy enforcing them, so they won't show up in the crime stats. But to a homeowner, who now has to clean their front yard of beer bottles and other crap every morning, who is kept up by people who think it appropriate to drink in an alley until 2 in the morning, and who has to pass by a bunch of thugs everytime they walk to the corner store, this type of stuff can become wearing, and I think can certainly be grounds for complaint. Crying racism is not always the correct response--sometimes people have a legitimate beef.

I'll agree with this one. As an Uptown resident, I know how this minor "quality of life" stuff can wear you down on a day-to-day basis. Unfortunately, there's no way to measure this type of thing outside of definining your own comfort zone.

[Lookout Kid]

Originally Posted by Johnny Northside

Ridiculous? Pffffft. I'll tell you what's ridiculous is reading advice from someone who doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. There's so much tripe in your post that I wouldn't even know where to begin. But let me give you the top two:

-- Some white-flighter's panicky "observations on the ground" are colored by his or her prejudices and are pretty much useless in these matters, but the stats do not lie. What stats? Do you have the summer 2008 stats that you aren't sharing with us?

-- Elmwood Park has been next to a crime-plagued Chicago ghetto for decades now, and has always had spillover crime from Austin. Elmwood Park is hardly "next to" a ghetto (any marginal areas of Austin are more than a mile from EP's southeastern border and were further away 10 years ago), and until recent years there was virtually no spillover crime in EP. Or do you have the divine ability to split out "spillover crime" from the historical data?

Been in Elmwood Park lately? How about two years ago? How about five years ago or 10 years ago? Can you make an informed comparison regarding what it's like to live there now vs. 1996? Besides quoting stats that are two summers old? Until then I will pass on your advice, thanks anyway.

If anyone, anywhere, would claim a trend based on ONE SUMMER of data, they would be kind of idiotic. It's like the people calling for the National Guard in Chicago this summer. Murders are up for sure, but they're still lower than they were for most of my existence in the city. Did I panic in 2003 when crime was higher than it is now? Of course not, because it was still lower than it was when I first moved to the city.

Even if Elmwood Park has a slight spike in crime this summer (which no one has proven), it's not necessarily a trend. It could be a temporary spike. There's no point in discussing it anyway, since the stats aren't available yet.

By the way, Elmwood Park is directly adjacent to Austin on two sides. Galewood is part of Austin, no matter what anyone says, and it isn't as nice as it looks. It's been plagued by crime for decades now. Of course there is "spillover crime" in Elmwood Park. Read your police blotter, and notice how many arrestees are listed as from Chicago, Maywood, or Melrose Park.

I'll see you at Armand's... And if the lot is full, I'll park around the corner in front of those sketchy apartment buildings without fear.

[ndfmnlf]

Reading is a skill. The mayor said there were 31 homes burglarized. That means any commercial property burglaries, which would have been lumped into your all-knowing historical statistics, weren't included in the 2008 to-date numbers. (Edit: And if the mayor was not including garage break-ins, the numbers this year would be even higher)

You are making presumptions about what the mayor didn't say. You are presuming that what the mayor didn't say will support your case. You are making an inference from absent evidence. This is the logical fallacy known as the argument from silence Argument from silence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Where is your evidence that there were more commercial and garage burglaries than historically expected? And since when did the mayor's data suddenly become credible in your eyes? Weren't you guys also claiming that the local government manipulates the crime statistics?

This thread is a classic example of confirmation bias Confirmation bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia . People have preconceived notions they hold in their heads. They then cherrypick anecdotes that they observe from the environment to confirm those notions. Example, they see minorities living in their communities, so they conclude the crime rate must have gone up. After all, minorites are genetically criminal. So they pick out incidents that confirm their bias. And when they are shown statistical data that disprove their notions, they reject the data and retreat into their elaborate cocoon of conspiracy theories.

This kind of mindset is also common among people who insist that the earth is flat, that UFOs landed in New Mexico, or that Elvis is still alive.

This is not a debate between liberal and conservative. This is a debate between the rational and the delusional.

[Johnny Northside]

Originally Posted by Lookout Kid

If anyone, anywhere, would claim a trend based on ONE SUMMER of data, they would be kind of idiotic. It's like the people calling for the National Guard in Chicago this summer. Murders are up for sure, but they're still lower than they were for most of my existence in the city. Did I panic in 2003 when crime was higher than it is now? Of course not, because it was still lower than it was when I first moved to the city.

Even if Elmwood Park has a slight spike in crime this summer (which no one has proven), it's not necessarily a trend. It could be a temporary spike. There's no point in discussing it anyway, since the stats aren't available yet.

By the way, Elmwood Park is directly adjacent to Austin on two sides. Galewood is part of Austin, no matter what anyone says, and it isn't as nice as it looks. It's been plagued by crime for decades now. Of course there is "spillover crime" in Elmwood Park. Read your police blotter, and notice how many arrestees are listed as from Chicago, Maywood, or Melrose Park.

I'll see you at Armand's... And if the lot is full, I'll park around the corner in front of those sketchy apartment buildings without fear.

Again, reading is a skill and apparently dealing in fact is, too...

1. SPILLOVER CRIME ... I said UNTIL RECENTLY there was no spillover crime. Of course it's happening now. Whether it was a fair policing policy or not, the cops in Elmwood Park and other suburbs such as Forest Park had a long-held reputation for keeping minorities (mainly blacks) out of their communities. (And to head you off at the pass, just because I am stating this sad fact don't immediately assume that I condone it and drop the racist or prejudice tag on me. There's a reason EP has been referred to by multiple people on here as a "fortress" in the past. I myself welcome people of all color who can enhance the community in which I live. The people who drag it down can go to hell.)

2. CRIME STATS ... There is also last summer for which there is no data, and perhaps the good residents of Elmwood Park recognized an uptick of criminal activity then, too, but not enough to warrant sharing with a bunch of know-nothing, statistic-quoting non-Elmwood Park residents in this forum. Perhaps not. What's true is that the crime and hanging out on street corners, etc., will be more noticeable in the summertime, and it's no coincidence that someone came forward during the summer months when all that activity -- legal and illegal -- is in the face of longtime residents more often. It has probably been more than summer 2007, and the summer before that, etc. If you want to wait until the stats are in for '07 and '08, please feel free to sit out this thread until 2010.

3. THE AMAZING REACH OF AUSTIN: Elmwood Park is adjacent to Austin on one side max, even if you count Galewood as part of the Austin community area. Tell me when Austin annexed any stretch of Belmont Avenue to place it on two sides? Or perhaps you're mixing up Austin and River Forest???? The housing stock in the section of Galewood between North/Narragansett/Milwaukee Road tracks/Harlem is as fine as south Elmwood Park, and would be on par with the more modest blocks of north Oak Park. The property values there are slightly higher than Elmwood Park overall, in part because of the city worker residency requirement. It's also home to a magnet grade school with a neighborhood component, making it a desirable area for hardworking parents of all backgrounds -- it's actually a well integrated area that may be able to hold off a decline thanks to these positive factors that Elmwood Park has almost none of (except the housing on the south side of EP). You should check it out next time you are at Armand's. Although honestly, ever since I walked into the bathroom at Armand's and saw one of the line staff throwing up in the toilet, I don't recommend it too often. I'd try Old World for pizza or Jim & Pete's for a more formal Italian meal. But no, you go to Armand's ... what's the statistical chance of that happening again when you are there?

[Johnny Northside]

Originally Posted by ndfmnlf

You are making presumptions about what the mayor didn't say. You are presuming that what the mayor didn't say will support your case. You are making an inference from absent evidence. This is the logical fallacy known as the argument from silence Argument from silence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Where is your evidence that there were more commercial and garage burglaries than historically expected? And since when did the mayor's data suddenly become credible in your eyes? Weren't you guys also claiming that the local government manipulates the crime statistics?

This thread is a classic example of confirmation bias Confirmation bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia . People have preconceived notions they hold in their heads. They then cherrypick anecdotes that they observe from the environment to confirm those notions. Example, they see minorities living in their communities, so they conclude the crime rate must have gone up. After all, minorites are genetically criminal. So they pick out incidents that confirm their bias. And when they are shown statistical data that disprove their notions, they reject the data and retreat into their elaborate cocoon of conspiracy theories.

This kind of mindset is also common among people who insist that the earth is flat, that UFOs landed in New Mexico, or that Elvis is still alive.

This is not a debate between liberal and conservative. This is a debate between the rational and the delusional.

And you took what he did say (31 HOMES burglarized) and compared it to a wider set of data on overall burglaries (including commercial and public buildings) in previous years. So you made an argument based on absent evidence -- you don't have the 2008 commercial and public building burglary rates. So actually, absent logic, too, on your part.

As far as the credibility of the mayor's statistics, no I don't trust them. (You bringing that up is just one your own acts of "cherry picking" the environment of this thread.) I would suspect that the 31 is the most favorable number he could provide and that it DOES NOT include garage burglaries, but my previous post left that part of the equation open. There is no doubt that if he said "homes" that 31 does not include restaurants, stores, etc., so the village is at a pace higher than 48 ... And the stats are all we have, no???? Remember whose argument that was?

And you still have not shown any statistical data that supports your assertion of a lower crime rate in Elmwood Park, circa 2008. A statistical argument on that subject is impossible to win at this time on either side. Come back in 2010.

I will not address your accusations of racism or prejudice, as I have made my point on that in previous post. But it appears you are quick to paint anyone with an opinion different than yours as delusional, racist, flat-Earth, UFO/Elvis-sighting bozos. Yeah, you aren't judgmental of others....

But I do thank you for all the wonderful Wikipedia links. It's good to see you can quote words as well as numbers.

[Lookout Kid]

This is getting tiring, and no one is adding anything new to the conversation anymore.