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weve already talked about gallup. they use 7 day rolling averages which means you can never get any idea of where its going.
ive always maintained though that national polls are useless. give me ohio state polls right now. thats what gets my attention.
i dont care about florida.i dont care about north carolina. i dont care about virginia. i dont care about new hampshire.
Ask and you shall receive:
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There is no clear frontrunner in Ohio as voters ponder their preferences in the 2012 United States presidential election, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.
Even Qunnipiac shows Mittmentum in Ohio, while using a laughable D+9 voter turnout model:
Quote:
President Obama is holding on to a five-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio, but that margin has been cut in half since September, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News poll.
Mr. Obama holds a 50 to 45 percent lead over Romney among likely voters in the Buckeye State, down from a 53 to 43 percent advantage on Sept. 26. Three percent of likely voters there are undecided.
How is Obama going to lose if he is leading in Ohio? A narrow win is still a win.
He's not really leading in Ohio. IF he gets D+9 voter turnout in Ohio then he wins by 5 points according to the poll.
Nobody seriously believes Obama's 2012 turnout will be better than his 2008 turnout. Yet, that is exactly the premise of the latest Q poll (and many other polls showing Obama leading in Ohio).
PA is safe dem. Wisconsin is a toss up leaning which probably goes Obama.
Romney has no chance without Ohio. Simple as that.
PA is a union state. Definitely going for Obama.
Same with Wisconsin. Silver has Obama's odds there at 79 percent.
He can win without Ohio. As Silver shows here, he could lose Ohio, but win Iowa, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire and get to 273. If he wins all but NH, we could have a 269-269 tie in the EC.
Yeah, no kidding. All I can say is Oregon did it's part by not caving to the Republican party by getting out to vote, wish I could say the same about the rest of the country.
Agree. IMHO, Washington County is now the determining factor for elections in Oregon. The demographics have changed since the 90's when I moved to the county. Most of the tech companies (startups, Nike, Intel) are in the county. Washington County is blue. Oregon is not in play. In my development (about 500 houses) there are literally no yard signs. I've seen two for Obama. The bumper stickers overwhelmingly Obama. No political ads and no visits from either candidates. The RCP poll is the first one I've even seen. We received our ballots in the mail Saturday and will turn them in at the library today or tomorrow. The library was packed yesterday with people returning ballots. Native Ohioan here and Art Modell hater. Washington County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
Nobody seriously believes Obama's 2012 turnout will be better than his 2008 turnout. Yet, that is exactly the premise of the latest Q poll (and many other polls showing Obama leading in Ohio).
Who says that's the premise of their poll? You act as if pollsters have never heard these criticisms before and have failed to adjust all of their models accordingly.
And why does Obama's turnout need to be better in 2012 than it was in 2008? 2008 was a complete ass whooping. Obama just needs to win. A win by three touchdowns or a win by a safety is still a win.
Agree. IMHO, Washington County is now the determining factor for elections in Oregon. The demographics have changed since the 90's when I moved to the county. Most of the tech companies (startups, Nike, Intel) are in the county. Washington County is blue. Oregon is not in play. In my development (about 500 houses) there are literally no yard signs. I've seen two for Obama. The bumper stickers overwhelmingly Obama. No political ads and no visits from either candidates. The RCP poll is the first one I've even seen. We received our ballots in the mail Saturday and will turn them in at the library today or tomorrow. The library was packed yesterday with people returning ballots. Native Ohioan here and Art Modell hater. Washington County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
That is usually the best sign that a state isn't in play. I rarely see political ads here in Jersey from either candidate, which is usually a good meter to see which way a state is going, and Oregon is going Blue, no matter how much Ed wishes it was still a Red logging state.
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