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Just pointing out how much of a dead heat OH is. It's by no means leaning or solid anyone at this point.
That's simply ridiculous. Virginia is a dead heat. Colorado is a dead heat. Ohio is strongly leaning Obama as 538, RCP, TPM and Huff Post all indicate. You can argue with the statistical model used by one of those sources, but to say that all four are wrong is beyond delusional. When campaigns spend millions of dollars on polling, a difference of 2 points reflected across multiple polls in a swing state is a very, very big deal.
No one says Ohio is "solid Obama." No one. Some say it is "leaning Obama," but no one says it is "solid Obama."
Anyway...here are some new national polls:
I'm not sure if anyone posted the Politico/GWU/Battleground poll earlier, but here it is. Romney up 2, Obama was up 1 in the poll they released last week.
Also, a new Monmouth/Survey USA/Braun poll has come out... Romney up 3. He was up just 1 in their last poll which was done a few days after the first debate.
If Romney is really up 2-3 nationally, he is not down in Ohio. Ohio has historically leaned more Republican than the nation and in 2008, it was 3 points more Republican. As I mentioned earlier, because of several factors, I do think OH could be about one point more Democratic than the nation this year, but it will not be 2-3 points more Democratic. Remember CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac and NBC/WSJ/Marist - the two most pro-Obama pollsters - are not doing national polls so there is no way to compare apples and apples between state and national polls.
Speaking of Ohio specifically - here is a new Ohio poll...Romney up 1.
It was done for a Republican group (and may be a Republican pollster - I am not sure), but this pollster had Obama up 7 in Ohio before the first debate.
Here are a few Rasmussen polls. I know I will get laughed at from the left for posting them, but you post NBC/WSJ/Marist, CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, and PPP. (Remember that your beloved Nate Silver said earlier this year that PPP was quite a bit more biased than Rasmussen.) Also, you should be able to compare Rasmussen polls to previous Rasmussen polls.
Romney up 4 in Colorado. Obama was up 1 in the last Rasmussen CO poll.
If Romney is really up 2-3 nationally, he is not down in Ohio. Ohio has historically leaned more Republican than the nation and in 2008, it was 3 points more Republican. As I mentioned earlier, because of several factors, I do think OH could be about one point more Democratic than the nation this year, but it will not be 2-3 points more Democratic. Remember CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac and NBC/WSJ/Marist - the two most pro-Obama pollsters - are not doing national polls so there is no way to compare apples and apples between state and national polls.
No one says Ohio is "solid Obama." No one. Some say it is "leaning Obama," but no one says it is "solid Obama."
Anyway...here are some new national polls:
I'm not sure if anyone posted the Politico/GWU/Battleground poll earlier, but here it is. Romney up 2, Obama was up 1 in the poll they released last week.
Also, a new Monmouth/Survey USA/Braun poll has come out... Romney up 3. He was up just 1 in their last poll which was done a few days after the first debate.
If Romney is really up 2-3 nationally, he is not down in Ohio. Ohio has historically leaned more Republican than the nation and in 2008, it was 3 points more Republican. As I mentioned earlier, because of several factors, I do think OH could be about one point more Democratic than the nation this year, but it will not be 2-3 points more Democratic. Remember CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac and NBC/WSJ/Marist - the two most pro-Obama pollsters - are not doing national polls so there is no way to compare apples and apples between state and national polls.
Speaking of Ohio specifically - here is a new Ohio poll...Romney up 1.
It was done for a Republican group (and may be a Republican pollster - I am not sure), but this pollster had Obama up 7 in Ohio before the first debate.
The fact that we are now talking about Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as opposed to Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Virginia tells you everything you need to know about where this race is at. It's not in Obama's happy place.
The fact that we are now talking about Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as opposed to Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Virginia tells you everything you need to know about where this race is at. It's not in Obama's happy place.
Romney's talking about Ohio because he has few choices left. He's been down in 32 of 37 polls in that state conducted within the last three months and he's been down in 6 of the last 7. It's safe to say that Obama's lead is fairly established there. Right now you guys are simply pinning your hopes to a 70-yard field goal, an onside kick recovery and a Hail Mary with the clock at 0:00 (and a 2-point conversion).
Missouri didn't even go for Obama in 2008.
Romney will likely win Florida and North Carolina. But Obama has a better chance of winning Ohio than Romney has of winning Florida.
Romney will likely win Florida and North Carolina. But Obama has a better chance of winning Ohio than Romney has of winning Florida.
According to partisan hack Nate Silver, Obama has a better chance of winning OH than Romney has of winning FL. Romney is ahead in the RCP average in FL by just 0.1% less than Obama is in OH. And undecideds are more likely to vote for challengers than incumbents, which Nate Silver actually admitted though he tried to explain it away. Of course he ignores this in his calculations. And Obama is several points below 50% in OH.
As far as MO, it was the closest state in the country in 2008. It's a very good sign for Romney that it's not even in play this year.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 10-22-2012 at 11:08 AM..
FYI - Gallup will be releasing its latest numbers in 2 minutes. Can Romney maintain his huge lead? I do think Romney is really not up anywhere near as much as Gallup says and his lead will decrease either today or over the next few days just because his huge lead is likely some noise.
I'd much rather be in Romney's position than Obama's right now.
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