What will the San Fernando Valley look like in 10 years? (Los Angeles: neighborhood, buying)

[Charles]

Originally Posted by edwardius

Well the other thing to keep in mind is that incomes are rising in Mexico and fertility rates are falling. What that means is that the wave of hispanic immigration may very well start leveling off in the next 10 to 20 years.

The Mexican Evolution - New York Times

As that process occurs that will encourage the Valley to gentrify.

The thing that article failed to mention is Mexico's oil reserves are just about out - maybe less than ten years. Things might get worse along that front.



PEMEX says Mexico oil reserves may be gone in 7 years

[Lake Conroe resident]

Originally Posted by edwardius

Well the other thing to keep in mind is that incomes are rising in Mexico and fertility rates are falling. What that means is that the wave of hispanic immigration may very well start leveling off in the next 10 to 20 years.

Originally Posted by edwardius

The Mexican Evolution - New York Times

As that process occurs that will encourage the Valley to gentrify.

I'm not sure how old you are; but I'm fairly sure the SFV won't gentrify in my lifetime... Sure there will always be small "pockets" of nice areas;(Areas South of the Blvd, Granada Hills North of Rinaldi etc..) but as a whole the SFV will not be any place I would want to call home.

[edwardius]

In the long term Mexico's economy is probably better off it wasn't so oil dependent. If natural resources wealth was the key to economic prosperity, then Saudi Arabians and Russians should have higher per capita incomes than the Japanese who have few natural resources.

Instead where there are large exports of natural resources, dutch disease tends to crowd out the development of an industrial sector. I suspect the loss of the oil industry will in the long term be a plus for Mexico.

Dutch disease - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Ten or 15 years ago, there were plenty of people who were saying that downtown LA wouldn't be a nice place to live in their life times either. Places can change quicker than you might imagine.

[Lovehound]

Originally Posted by MisterMark

Curious about everybody's opinions. It's a very open-ended question. Be descriptive.

For me I hope the Valley will look really, really small, you know like from about 800-1500 miles away?

Actually I've lived in SFV almost my entire life. It was really nice up until about 20 years ago.

I'd change my mind about moving in a minute if I thought SFV would ever become a nicer place instead of a worse place.

I think the SFV is going to look like Tijuana.

[antialphabet]

Originally Posted by Lovehound

For me I hope the Valley will look really, really small, you know like from about 800-1500 miles away?

Actually I've lived in SFV almost my entire life. It was really nice up until about 20 years ago.

I'd change my mind about moving in a minute if I thought SFV would ever become a nicer place instead of a worse place.

I think the SFV is going to look like Tijuana.

Ah, Tijuana, the set standard of comparison for any town full of brown Spanish speaking people.

As if any city in the United States could look run down.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by Charles

The thing that article failed to mention is Mexico's oil reserves are just about out - maybe less than ten years. Things might get worse along that front.



PEMEX says Mexico oil reserves may be gone in 7 years

Those being the oil reserves that are easily extractable. Mexico has more offshore oil - there was a pretty large field discovered last year - but the Mexican government is reluctant to let foreign oil companies with greater technology partner with PEMEX to be able to extract that oil.

For the record, Prensa Latina is the official news agency of the Cuban government and thus much of what they say must be taken with a grain of salt when it comes to governments that the Castros don't like.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by antialphabet

Ah, Tijuana, the set standard of comparison for any town full of brown Spanish speaking people.

As if any city in the United States could look run down.

One could cite Detroit and Cleveland as comparisons just as easily - particularly because the closing of the GM plant had exactly the same effect on Van Nuys, Panorama City, North Hills, etc. as the closings of auto plants had and is having on countless neighborhoods and cities in the Great Lakes region. Or, if one doesn't want to get "racial", Buffalo, which is considerably whiter than Detroit or Cleveland yet has faced similar socioeconomic problems relating to the decline of US manufacturing.

[antialphabet]

Originally Posted by majoun

One could cite Detroit and Cleveland as comparisons just as easily - particularly because the closing of the GM plant had exactly the same effect on Van Nuys, Panorama City, North Hills, etc. as the closings of auto plants had and is having on countless neighborhoods and cities in the Great Lakes region. Or, if one doesn't want to get "racial", Buffalo, which is considerably whiter than Detroit or Cleveland yet has faced similar socioeconomic problems relating to the decline of US manufacturing.

Those are better comparisons than Tijuana, but if a neighborhood in California is in decline, and doesn't look squeaky clean like West LA, AND it has a high Latino population: boom. Tijuana.

[Lovehound]

It will be Tijuana, but it will be a nicer Tijuana. What it won't be is a nice San Fernando Valley. That died about two decades ago.

[antialphabet]

Originally Posted by Lovehound

It will be Tijuana, but it will be a nicer Tijuana. What it won't be is a nice San Fernando Valley. That died about two decades ago.

A nice one?
What besides the demographic composition makes it like Tijuana?

The San Fernando Valley as an escape from inner Los Angeles probably has died.