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This would be a good first step to self driving cars. I now have a Mercedes 500 ML but I would change to a Volvo if they had that by 2017 and Mercedes did not.
The issue moved a little closer to the mainstream yesterday when NPR devoted a portion of its morning broadcast to the possibility of a self-driving vehicle. Unfortunately, from this writer's point of view, the feature seemed more interested in describing the supposed state-of-the-art vehicle (Google's -- with no back-up manuals system) than in recognizing that this advance in technology, while moving in the right direction, will require a long period of adaptation and transition. I didn't hear much attention devoted to the point that this technology will only be adaptable to a closed system, and under very tightly defined conditions.
But having made that point, it should be emphasized that the ideal proving ground for such an advance already exists-- in the form of the limited number of major toll roads which are (1) situated in flat country, (2) are engineered to deal with heavier size and weight limits and (3) cover their higher maintenance costs -- and standards -- via tolls. Not to mention that the single largest and most immediate beneficiary, highway freight carriers, would have a strong incentive to finance the experimentation due to the huge potential for efficiency and lower costs.
Commercially-feasible development is probably a long way off, but the natural forces which drive all economic progress are oriented in the right direction.
The issue moved a little closer to the mainstream yesterday when NPR devoted a portion of its morning broadcast to the possibility of a self-driving vehicle. Unfortunately, from this writer's point of view, the feature seemed more interested in describing the supposed state-of-the-art vehicle (Google's -- with no back-up manuals system) than in recognizing that this advance in technology, while moving in the right direction, will require a long period of adaptation and transition. I didn't hear much attention devoted to the point that this technology will only be adaptable to a closed system, and under very tightly defined conditions.
But having made that point, it should be emphasized that the ideal proving ground for such an advance already exists-- in the form of the limited number of major toll roads which are (1) situated in flat country, (2) are engineered to deal with heavier size and weight limits and (3) cover their higher maintenance costs -- and standards -- via tolls. Not to mention that the single largest and most immediate beneficiary, highway freight carriers, would have a strong incentive to finance the experimentation due to the huge potential for efficiency and lower costs.
Commercially-feasible development is probably a long way off, but the natural forces which drive all economic progress are oriented in the right direction.
Where has it been decided that the system will be closed? Virtually all the development going on is in an open environment. I would think it will likely first hit the long haul truck as the payoff is so high and the environment is relatively easy.
But I don't see anyone about to do the work up front for a closed course approach.
It isn't "going to be decided" whether the system will be open or closed by anything other than the free exchange of information and technology -- but I would suggest that the huge amount of information, and the number of variables and factors to be considered mean that only closed systems will be feasible, and likely for a very long time.
My post #39 back on page 4 has some parallels drawn from a rail-based system -- upon which actual research and development has been done, and is much more finite; therefore, easier to design because there are fewer "loose ends", but they grow at a near-exponential rate as more variables are introduced to the programming process.
One other unsettling point to consider; when George Orwell wrote 1984, the malevolent dictatorship he envisioned was based largely upon the development of 2-way television -- and the unfortunate fact is that that possibility has also come quite a bit closer in recent times. The idea of a self-driving car which could take an accident or stroke victim to a local hospital automatically is promising, but what about a vehicle which could automatically lock someone who is on Big Brother / Sister's "*** list in, and deliver them to some concentration camp?
To borrow a term from my railroading days, this is an idea upon which to "proceed at restricted speed" -- always ready to recognize and stop short of any threat -- because the woods are full of tigers as well as squirrels.
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 05-29-2014 at 12:34 PM..
It isn't "going to be decided" whether the system will be open or closed by anything other than the free exchange of information and technology -- but I would suggest that the huge amount of information, and the number of variables and factors to be considered mean that only closed systems will be feasible, and likely for a very long time.
My post #39 back on page 4 has some parallels drawn from a rail-based system -- upon which actual research and development has been done, and is much more finite; therefore, easier to design because there are fewer "loose ends", but they grow at a near-exponential rate as more variables are introduced to the programming process.
One other unsettling point to consider; when George Orwell wrote 1984, the malevolent dictatorship he envisioned was based largely upon the development of 2-way television -- and the unfortunate fact is that that possibility has also come quite a bit closer in recent times. The idea of a self-driving car which could take an accident or stroke victim to a local hospital automatically is promising, but what about a vehicle which could automatically lock someone who is on Big Brother / Sister's "*** list in, and deliver them to some concentration camp?
To borrow a term from my railroading days, this is an idea upon which to "proceed at restricted speed" -- always ready to recognize and stop short of any threat -- because the woods are full of tigers as well as squirrels.
You are of course welcome to your opinion but I think the technology has long since passed you by. I am frankly skeptical that there will ever be even a single closed system of any sort implemented. There is a system in Scandinavia that is mixed but even there the route is limited but there is really no "closed system"...just data and driving instructions and mixed traffic.
I would not be surprised to see initial implementations to include the "train" concepts. That is a manned vehicle trailed by a number of autonomous vehicles. Work well on long haul trucking with a return to manned at the terminals. But that would be one implementation of many and would likely be short lived..a train is awkward, limited by the least capable vehicle and still has people on board.
Clearly Google is working on the urban taxi scenario...which is the most demanding in environment though limited in speed making things easier. And Caterpillar has implemented a massive system of autonomous monster trucks in Australia. So we have implementations of all sorts underway.
I would project wide availability of self driving vehicles by 2020 with dominance by 2025. And I still expect the initial and big one to be long haul trucks.
Although I don't expect to be around to see too much of it, I believe that out entire surface transportation system, with the possible exception of pipelines, is in for a complete re-orientation -- and it's going to be very interesting.
Large-scale movement of bulk commodities like grain, coal and ore -- the feedstock of all industrialization --began around 1820 and usually involved either coastal shipping or horse-drawn barges on a limited number of canals -- cheap to operate, but very expensive for the private sector to build.
The railroads entered the picture on a regular basis about twenty years later; the greater reliability and gradual evolution of higher speeds made the transportation of more valuable items like perishables and livestock practical over longer distances. But it wasn't until around the turn of the Twentieth Century that large-scale distribution of mass-produced industrial and consumer goods really intensified.
By 1920, it was clear that the automobile would dominate the personal-transport market outside of a few congested cities; the railroads were enjoying a similar dominance for freight, but the evolution of the heavy-duty truck (developed out of necessity on the battlefields of World War I) would change that as well.
In 1970, when this writer was an undergraduate majoring in Logistics, it had become clear that any commodity of significant value with regard to the weight shipped would move by truck. The railroads were fighting back with containerization, and huge price discounts for movements of freight in large quantities, but their price structure, which charged higher rates for small, valuable shipments, was handicapping them. Eventually, regulatory reform and economic efficiency (2-person rail crews instead of 5 or 6, for example) broke the roadblock and the smaller, but much more efficient system we know today arose.
But what we now have is an emerging conflict between much smaller, lighter and less-crashworthy personal vehicles -- driven by both economic necessity and the public sector's new infatuation with rule by regulatory and executive order -- and a continuing trend toward smaller shipments of goods of increasing value per unit of weight and mass; thus not well-suited to any movement other than highway.
Make no mistake about it -- I believe the self-driving vehicle will continue to emerge. with the economic pressures the driving factor. But the very broad spectrum of highway conditions are going to make the process difficult to adapt to widespread use.
To cite just one factor, rail systems are very efficient precisely because they virtually never encounter a gradient of 2 per-cent (a rise of one foot in 50 feet of horizontal distance); highways regularly deal with grades of 8-10 per cent and can go higher when necessary, but it adds yet another element to the challenges facing the driver/operator.
Progress is on the way; but to borrow from the old proverb, "A journey of a thousand miles involves a whole lotta single steps."
Last edited by 2nd trick op; 05-30-2014 at 01:25 AM..
That is simply another version of the discussion back 40 messages or so.
And it again reveals a lack of understanding of how an autonomous car operates.
They are not really intelligent in any meaningful way. So they don't make decisions of the sort discussed.
They see an object of certain dimensions moving in a direction at a speed. And they do wnatever whether it is a full bus and empty bus or a truck.
Who are you kidding? autonomous vehicles must make thousands of decisions every time it moves.
An autonomous vehicle is driving down a street lined with pedestrians and a child darts out in front of the vehicle, no time to brake.
What does the vehicle do?
~ Go straight and run over one child?
~ Go left and run over two women and their baby carriages?
~ Go right and run over three young men watching the street?
So as per you the above doesn't constitute a decisional process...
A human being must create the algorithms used by the vehicle in this situation...
Or does the vehicle blithely continue down the street ignoring anything in its path?
These autonomous vehicles will be a pig trough for lawyers...
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