[Wilton2ParkAve]

As computing power goes up - modeling output degrades. Possibility we may need to wave the white flag again?

[Cambium]

No time for updates today but here's the Last 8 runs of the GFS for Bridgeport, CT.

Precip has increased past 4 runs but so did the surface temp as well slightly...

We dont see the temps between surface and 5000' with models. Keep that in mind, if there's any warmth between those levels, it will reduce the snow totals big time




Someone please post some forecast maps

[simonusa3]

Taking a look at the runs this morning and reading NWS Upton discussion, still seems like they are all over the place with the track, P-type, and even what happens after the low pulls away. They pumped this out early this morning, I suppose it looks reasonable for southern Connecticut/Long Island/NYC. Looking at how they have given up of any snow on Long Island (if low is stronger more warm ocean air is pulled in - they might be thinking that?) so coastal Connecticut is next in line for a change:



I think we are just going to have to wait till late Fri or early Sat with this one to really know. It seems likely at least some snow for the interior of Connecticut I would think. The trend looked more north from what I can tell. This also mean more rain along the Connecticut coast.

I did see this from NWS Mount Holly, NJ this morning....seems very telling on what "might" happen here in CT from NWS looking at trending:


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summary: After a quiet and seasonable Friday, a coastal system
is forecast to impact the region beginning Saturday, peaking
Saturday night, then departing the area on Sunday. Widespread
precipitation is forecast, including wintry precipitation mainly
northwest of I- 95. Details follow below.

Synoptic Overview: A closed mid-level low across the southern
Plains will open into a shortwave trough and deamplify as it
eject northeastward. It is forecast to cross our region Saturday
night. By Sunday morning, a sub-tropical jet will be centered
across the Southeast, placing the northern-most areas of the
forecast area and southern New England in the left exit region
of the jet as it shifts eastward and eventually offshore. At the
surface, A broad surface high will shift offshore and weaken on
Friday. Its initially cold and dry airmass will begin to modify
as thicknesses and heights rise and low level flow turns
southwest ahead of the approaching trough. By Saturday morning,
less than impressive cyclogenesis will be ongoing with the
surface low lifting quickly northeastward from the Carolinas.
The latest trend in the 00Z guidance is for this low to take a
more northerly track, keeping it closer to our coast as it lifts
north Saturday night. Furthermore, the greatest diffluence
aloft will likely continue to support a northerly trend with the
surface low (unless a significant shift in the placement of the
jet streak forecast occurs), which would result in a warmer
solution. An arctic airmass associated with a high will be
located well to our north across southeast Canada, and our area
will not be able to tap into its airmass.


To me, they seem to be saying it's trending north, thus a warmer solution, thus rain in areas from !-95 south. So this means that rain/snow line is REALLY close, and getting closer to southern CT. If this continues, maybe MORE snow for points north, but more rain for southern Connecticut?

Another 24 - 48 hours I guess...

[rach5]

Why no mention of that wind/rain storm the following Tuesday into Wednesday? NWS for Providence reads "At this point the NBM highlights the risk quite well where we could see strong to damaging winds along with heavy precipitation." Won't that be a much bigger issue with the wind and lots of rain on top of the recent snow, than a moderate run of the mill snow storm? I know it's not as exciting...

[brownedbits]

Originally Posted by rach5

Why no mention of that wind/rain storm the following Tuesday into Wednesday? NWS for Providence reads "At this point the NBM highlights the risk quite well where we could see strong to damaging winds along with heavy precipitation." Won't that be a much bigger issue with the wind and lots of rain on top of the recent snow, than a moderate run of the mill snow storm? I know it's not as exciting...

That is one week out, which is eons in meteorological time and much can change between now and then.

[Cambium]

Wish I had more time!

So was the 00z last night a fluke?????? WOW Both Euro and GFS have over 1" liquid falling now.

Euro for Bridgeport, CT
QPF: (10:1 snow)

00z: 1.12" (10-12")
12z: 0.60" (5-7")
00z: 1.55" (14-16")
12z: 0.84" (7-9")
00z: 0.38" (2-3")
12z: 1.34" ( 12-14")

I haven't really looked at surface temps much, just precip amounts and temp aloft which is below freezing at 5000'

[Cambium]

Thread will be started tonight if I can catch a breath

NWS saw the models jump in totals. WOW



.


Thread for the storm focused on CT here.



.

[SteveM85]

This one has dud written all over it

[htfdcolt]

...lo & behold, our first WSW of the season! It's through late Sunday night...expecting to be a long duration storm?

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...9&lon=-71.1493

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

...lo & behold, our first WSW of the season! It's through late Sunday night...expecting to be a long duration storm?

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...9&lon=-71.1493

I think they are just covering their bases.....most have the precip being minimal after mid-morning Sunday.