[SteveM85]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Collage of Actual February Snowstorm Pictures I took since 2011

Remember 3 years ago today? Coming up to a big anniversary 11 yrs ago.




Feb 21, 2011: 4.5"
Feb 9, 2013: 17.0"
Feb 13, 2014: 11.3"
Feb 2, 2015: 8.9"
Feb 5, 2016: 7.0"
Feb 8, 2016: 5.0"
Feb 9, 2017: 9.5"
Feb 17, 2018: 6.9"
Feb 1-3, 2021: 10.4"
Feb 7, 2021: 6.9"

Thank God those days are behind us now Cambium. Or should I say thank Mankind. Whoever is responsible - Thank You.
Either way I'm good with it , while I'm still in the Northeast for a couple of more years.

[Cambium]

GFS12z continues with the south road transferring energy off Virginia. This means its colder for us and more snow

ICON transfers near NJ which means rain for us.

Weeeeee

[Cambium]

I'm actually enjoying the sound of birds and the warmth of the sun. Keep it going! Cold is pointless without snow!


Speaking of which................... Nice move Euro12z. It shifted south as well. Still 5 days away


Danbury, CT: 0.97" rain to mostly snow
Hartford: 1.01" all snow

Providence: 0.84" all snow
Boston: 0.91" all snow

NYC: 0.92" Mostly rain to snow
Atlantic City: 1.41" All rain

[Cambium]

Past 7 days has features Sunny skies and temps in the 20s in the morning, 40s in the day.

8 Day forecast. Watching Tuesdays storm... Keep plans light

[simonusa3]

I think the real issue with the storm/low for Tuesday is that there is a lack of any real cold air around (no cold high to our north). Also, it appears that the low will really be moving fast, so whatever happens the window for precip is rather tight. NWS seems to saying this from what it looks like:



Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
724 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2024

Mid levels convey a strong shortwave moving across the local region
early Tuesday. ECMWF strongest and deepest compared to GFS and
Canadian models. Shortwave moves well east of the region Tuesday
night. Less amplified mid level shortwaves move across Wednesday and
Thursday.

Without much in the way of phasing of northern and southern branches
of the upper jet with the southerly branch being the more dominant
one, there is a limit to how amplified the wave gets. There is not
much tilt vertically. This favors a relatively faster and more
progressive solution. Also evident, is a lack of a strong high
pressure area to lock in colder air. It will difficult to sustain
any prolonged snowfall especially if more of the precipitation falls
during the day. So, the snow will depend on how much dynamic
cooling occurs which will be proportional to the strengthening
of the low.

At the surface, low pressure develops off the mid-Atlantic Monday
night and then deepens as it tracks southeast of Long Island. ECMWF
much deeper and slower compared to other models. The current
forecast takes this low southeast of Long Island going into Monday
night with an increase of precipitation. Similar to previous
forecast, inland zones have relatively more snow in the forecast
compared to the coast. Coastal areas contain mostly rain.

Lesser chances of rain and snow accompany the smaller shortwaves
Wednesday and Thursday with otherwise mainly dry conditions Tuesday
night onward through rest of long term


So maybe they will have more details by Sat/Sun. ?

[simonusa3]

Until the low/storm on Tues...perhaps the most interesting thing so far this Feb, is that with (roughly) 1/3 of the month gone, temps are averaging 5.9 F above normal at NWS Bridgeport and an incredible 8.1 F above normal at Bradley. NWS Bridgeport has not had a single day so far when the high temp was normal or below normal (normal high is now 40 F):




There still looks to be at least some kind of pattern change by Feb 15th or so. So the question is will this change force the remainder of Feb 2024 to sink back to normal? Should be interesting to watch.

[Cambium]

Latest GFS tempts me to create a thread for this storm.

Nope, not gonna do it. Nope

[Cambium]

[Cambium]

Good Disco from Upton

Basically just talking about the models, the setup and the potentials

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1252 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2024

* A shift farther south has been noted with ensembles with
respect to the storm system and its center of low pressure.
These have shifted farther southeast compared to previous
ensemble runs. The mean snowfall forecast axis has also
shifted farther southeast compared to previously forecast,
resulting in a small increase towards coastal areas. Several
inches of snowfall will be possible but there is a lot of
model spread for precipitation and snowfall.

Upper levels signal a strong jet tapping into multiple sources of
moisture from the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico and the Western
Atlantic Monday into Monday night. Vertical lift apparent from a
coupled jet structure depicted with local area close to right rear
quad of jet streak to the NE of the area plus left front quad of an
approaching jet streak to the SW going into early Tuesday.

Mid levels convey a strong shortwave moving across the local region
early Tuesday. ECMWF strongest and deepest compared to GFS and
Canadian models.

The trends in ensembles with both ECMWF and GFS has the low
positions for early Tuesday shifting farther offshore. Looking at
grand ensemble incorporating the ECMWF, GFS as well as the Canadian
ensembles, the mean snowfall axis has made its way farther south
from more interior areas to more coastal areas over the last 24
hours.

At the surface, low pressure develops off the mid-Atlantic Monday
night and then deepens as it tracks southeast of Long Island. ECMWF
much deeper and slower compared to other models. The current
forecast takes this low southeast of Long Island going into Monday
night with an increase of precipitation. Similar to previous
forecast, inland zones have relatively more snow in the forecast
compared to the coast. Coastal areas contain mostly rain.

[Cambium]

50s outside today and NWS has changed the rain to "Snow Likely" now for Tuesday.