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For sure. So just to put things together, Russia's got the Crimea and protected the 'Russians'. Maybe some bets on the East and South going over too?????? Not sure they'd do it off the cuff but rather let things play out. The Crimean episode worked very well for Mr. Putin. I wonder if he was surprised it was so easy.
I agree the Crimean episode worked extremely well for Putin. Putin said he hopes he won't have to exercise his "right" to use military force in Ukraine. I think this statement is meant to convince the American and Ukrainian leadership that a federalized Eastern Ukraine is the lesser of 2 evils of an outright annexation by force of eastern or possibly the whole of Ukraine and to acquiesce to that fact. I don't know if sanctions would be a deterrence because the the main thing Russia exports is energy and if Europe decides to stop buying it China would be more than happy acquire Russian gas for its domestic industry. Germany would be hurt the most because it exports a considerable amount of manufactured goods to the Russian market. Again that would benefit China because that would open up another market from many competitors. It would also benefit Iran in that Russia would be more apt to increase economic cooperation with Iran therefore easing the economic isolation of Iran. The big question is will U.S. and Ukrainian governments call Putin's bluff of invasion thinking Putin would not dare risk the threatened isolation the U.S. and E.U. has been blustering so much about if he crosses that red line. If they think Putin is serious and cave to his demands Putin comes out of this greatly victorious as a leader and world politician who was at the first thrown for a serious setback in his bid for getting Ukraine to join his Eurasian economic trade and currency bloc but recovered quickly enough to regain control by force or political influence the main industrial areas of Ukraine.
I'm all for redrawing borders in general. Many borders are completely irrationnal and separate the same population.That's unjust, and cruel to those populations.
Examples :
- the Hungarians of Transylvania (Romania)
- the Russians of Latvia
- the Russians of North Kazakhstan
- the Serbs of northern Kosovo and East/ North Bosnia
- the Austrians from Süd Tyrol / Alto Adige in north Italy (land of the mountaineer Meissner)
Anyway if the Scots and Catalans cast their ballot in favour of independence later this year, it will open the Pandora box : the Basques, Flemish , and others (see above) will follow suit. Why should only the Scots and Catalans be allowed to organize independence referendums? it wouldn't be fair.
I heard the Unionists are getting a landslide victory in Scotland.
Correct, support for Scottish independence has never exceeded 1/3 of the population. There is no way the nationalists will win come September 18th. People are confusing electoral support for the SNP with support for Scottish independence, they are two different issues. Many people who voted for the SNP in the 2011 election did so as a protest vote against the Scottish Labour Party.
If they think Putin is serious and cave to his demands Putin comes out of this greatly victorious as a leader and world politician who was at the first thrown for a serious setback in his bid for getting Ukraine to join his Eurasian economic trade and currency bloc but recovered quickly enough to regain control by force or political influence the main industrial areas of Ukraine.
If one loses in a chess play he can get away all figures from the chessboard and say "I am the winner and you can't affect me". Rude force is a bad way.
President Putin is dissatisfied that Ukraine doesn't want to join to the Сustoms Union that consists of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and some others.
Besides President of Russia is afraid that soon NATO troop will appear in Ukraine.
That's why he is ready to disintegrate the state. "The Russian question" is mostly fake. He doesn't want to see the life as it really is.
The big question is will U.S. and Ukrainian governments call Putin's bluff of invasion thinking Putin would not dare risk the threatened isolation the U.S. and E.U. has been blustering so much about if he crosses that red line. If they think Putin is serious and cave to his demands Putin comes out of this greatly victorious as a leader and world politician who was at the first thrown for a serious setback in his bid for getting Ukraine to join his Eurasian economic trade and currency bloc but recovered quickly enough to regain control by force or political influence the main industrial areas of Ukraine.
I think your post kind of goes toward the idea everybody is mulling about and that is what is Mr. Putin's ultimate intention
of how he sees the relationship of Ukraine within the Russian sphere? And hasn't he sort of signaled it but not yet knowing the outcome, i.e by reserving the right to send troops and to continue to note Russian claims over Ukrainian territory? In the last few weeks, haven't we been seeing events slowly and inexorably going in a direction where perhaps Ukraine is getting 'carved' up in front of our eyes? This is a country that, unfortunately, cannot decide its fate by itself.
And we see how serious this is to Mr. Putin. He will not let this go and he will consistently and constantly test Western resolve in seeing this matter through. And if the the West wants some sort of 'unification' of the country right now well I'd say they have a really weak hand. I'd thik the cards, for now, are in Mr. Putin's favor in seeing the east and south being annexed like the Crimea.
If one loses in a chess play he can get away all figures from the chessboard and say "I am the winner and you can't affect me". Rude force is a bad way.
President Putin is dissatisfied that Ukraine doesn't want to join to the Сustoms Union that consists of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and some others.
Besides President of Russia is afraid that soon NATO troop will appear in Ukraine.
That's why he is ready to disintegrate the state. "The Russian question" is mostly fake. He doesn't want to see the life as it really is.
I don't blame Putin not wanting Ukraine to join NATO. Ukraine should be neutral. But the battle is also whether Ukraine joins economically with the European Union or the Eurasian Economic Community. IMO, if the Ukrainians were smart they should try to have links with both if possible.
Btw, not to go off topic but I found it extremely interesting that Vietnam is considering joining the Russian Customs Union. Vietnam is all over the place diplomatically and trying to have good links with everybody. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%...elations#Other
And in general, what is happening in Ukraine once again shows that Ukraine needs a normal leader like Putin or Lukashenko. Now everything is reminiscent of 1917-th year. Military conquest, the Civil War, the Iron Curtain (ban Russian channels). I wonder who will take over the role of Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin later.
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Ukranian victory of Putin
