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I feel bad for the Ukraine/Ukrainians; it's been caught up in post cold war shenanigans. I believe that Ukraine should be absolutely sovereign over its own affairs, but it needs to realize that the West isn't going to go up to bat for the Ukraine. The EU wants maximum push and minimum accountability, and they're going to leave Ukraine to more or less fend for itself. The EU has been horribly feckless during this whole affair. On the other hand, the Russian Bear has a lot of bite!
To say that the EU has been feckless is wrong. Until he was overthrown Yukanovich was pro Russian, he was highly unlikely to accept any advances from the EU.
Also the EU could do nothing as long as the Ukraine had an unelected government. As for the Russians, well billions of dollars (capital flight) are leaving the country every day, the IMF say $220billion so far and rising.
Also Russia is in recession, the rouble has lost 7% of it's value as well, so they can't afford to do anything that would make that situation worse, invading the Ukraine would certainly make it worse. In short the Russian economy is a basket case.
If Russia invades the Ukraine there will be huge sanctions put in place against them and the Russians know it.
erasure
The Eastern regions economy is directly dependent on Russia, yet their industries have been already promised to American/European corporations. Will America/EU be ready to compromise then?
I mean the first part of scenario already went according to American directives; didn't Nuland mention in her infamous conversation with Payette that she'd like to see Poroshenko as president, Yatzenuk as prime-minister ( or whoever he is) and Klichko as a mayor of Kiev?
The quality of the activists who are for the separation (or pro-Russian) are quite low. Some of them are on the level of the killed Sashko, only from the other side.
The result that can be achieved with such human resources won't be bright or will be very bright, but in a special and not very pleasant way. Besides, some of them may dream to build something similar here. Such people, especially if they are former combatants, military officers or unfortunate writers or painters, usually have wild imagination.
Last edited by Muscovite; 05-28-2014 at 01:45 AM..
Goodness, you can just browse the Internet and see who all it is, it is not like it is some state secret or something.
"Fighters who looked like Caucasus residents have been seen among the pro-Russia rebels who have seized government buildings, declared independence from Ukraine and are fighting government forces in the east."
"Our president [Kadyrov] gave the order. They called us and we came," one of the fighters, a 33-year-old named Zelimkhan, was quoted as saying. Residents of the Chechen cities of Grozny and Gudermes were also discovered among 43 separatists who were injured and hospitalized after clashes between rebels and government forces earlier this week, Ukraine's regional news portal Ostrov reported Tuesday, citing the Kiev-loyal mayor of Donetsk, Oleksandr Lukyanchenko."
This is the reason I believe that Poroshenko can't really compromise; with
IMF loans at stake he is not a free man, so he has to report to his new masters
that he is ready to deliver to them what they demand - i.e. the industries of
the East. That's why I expect more deaths in the name of $$$$ and American
corporations in Eastern Ukraine.
Perhaps someone can explain something. I am stumped why Russia has not had a more constructive and strong trading partenrship with Ukraine in the post-war period. I don't believe the economic relationship has been nurtured as it could have been up to now.
Say how many rubles has Russia sunk into Ukraine? If we assume that Russia is more the eco powerhouse then I'd say it is incumbent on her to better the relationship. Where was her interest in constructive trade? However, what we see now is a dismal economic situation between the two where Russia apparently simply wants Ukraine to be a buyer of things and thus dependent.
Granted Ukriane is also responsible for this state of affairs but I'd say they're smart in looking to the West to help them develop economically. Seems to me they have got nothing to show from their neighbors to the East. Good constructive trade conceivably helps both partners. Russia, Ukraine's big powerful neighbor, I'm afraid dropped the ball here big time.
Perhaps if there's anything about this war especially the response from the workers in Donetsk it's that people want to live their lives advantageously with their families and enjoy the fruits of their labor. I don't see Mr. Putin's policy to Ukraine helping it. Why? Beacuse I belive he is beholden to the overall Russian image of the country. This Czar from the looks of it does not care for the common man and their wants and needs. If he did he'd be managing the relationship much much differently and not as a battle for control of who 'runs' things politically and economically. The fear he feels is palpable. He does not want Ukraine to succeed at all.....in any sphere of competiton. My humble opinion.
and boxus' comment on 'voting'. You seem to be skeptical on 'voting' in national states. Say did you 'trust' the Crimean vote?
"Fighters who looked like Caucasus residents have been seen among the pro-Russia rebels who have seized government buildings, declared independence from Ukraine and are fighting government forces in the east."
"Our president [Kadyrov] gave the order. They called us and we came," one of the fighters, a 33-year-old named Zelimkhan, was quoted as saying. Residents of the Chechen cities of Grozny and Gudermes were also discovered among 43 separatists who were injured and hospitalized after clashes between rebels and government forces earlier this week, Ukraine's regional news portal Ostrov reported Tuesday, citing the Kiev-loyal mayor of Donetsk, Oleksandr Lukyanchenko."
What the hell are Chechen fighters doing in the Ukraine? Killing Ukrainians? Fighting for the Putin's "right" and "freedom" to control Ukraine?
I did not deny they were there, I just stated you can see who is fighting easily; it is about everyone, including ethnic Ukrainians against Kiev, ethnic Russians against the rebels. I think a lot of the killings is more local mafia on mafia violence than anything else, that and the typical thugs looking for any excuse to cause troube, those types are present in every conflict.
Why Chechens are there who knows, I never trust anything they do no matter the reason any of them give; my guess is they are making money off of it somehow, think of them as "Blackwater contractors". There are also numerous Chechens residing there anyway, many are there for business interests (usually underground/blackmarket stuff).
To say that the EU has been feckless is wrong. Until he was overthrown Yukanovich was pro Russian, he was highly unlikely to accept any advances from the EU.
The Orange revolt leaders were pro-EU, and they wrecked Ukraine's economy more than ever.
Quote:
Originally Posted by albion
Also the EU could do nothing as long as the Ukraine had an unelected government.
Yanukovich was elected, in a fair election at that. The EU has an issue with Ukrainian industries staying together.
Quote:
Originally Posted by albion
As for the Russians, well billions of dollars (capital flight) are leaving the country every day, the IMF say $220billion so far and rising.
Also Russia is in recession, the rouble has lost 7% of it's value as well, so they can't afford to do anything that would make that situation worse, invading the Ukraine would certainly make it worse. In short the Russian economy is a basket case.
Russia's economy is better than most of the world's economy, so it is not that bad. Also, this temporary dip is really nothing, the US and many EU countries took even a worse hit because of the banking industry, in which no one other than the banks got anything out of it, at least Russia got a strategic important piece of land.
Quote:
Originally Posted by albion
If Russia invades the Ukraine there will be huge sanctions put in place against them and the Russians know it.
I doubt Russia really cares; they survived the 1990's Ruble crisis jsut fine, have low debt, a huge underground economy, and if Russia's economy goes, well, the magic of global economic integration is so does many other countries' economies goes. Look at Greece, greece itself rattled the heck out of the markets, yet they are a fraction of Russia's economy.
Not saying that is the direction they should go, but I think the EU/US knows that it is difficult to hit Russia economically without damaging the EU/US as well. As for me, I do not think Ukraine is worth one extra penny out of my pocket, let alone risk job loss, sky rocketing energy costs, retirement investment shrinkage, etc.
Perhaps someone can explain something. I am stumped why Russia has not had a more constructive and strong trading partenrship with Ukraine in the post-war period. I don't believe the economic relationship has been nurtured as it could have been up to now.
It has been plenty nurtured, but it is all concentrated in the east, but with the oligarchs siphoning off funds from the country to themselves; I do not see why anyone will think it is going to be different all of a sudden.
Quote:
Originally Posted by travric
Say how many rubles has Russia sunk into Ukraine? If we assume that Russia is more the eco powerhouse then I'd say it is incumbent on her to better the relationship. Where was her interest in constructive trade? However, what we see now is a dismal economic situation between the two where Russia apparently simply wants Ukraine to be a buyer of things and thus dependent.
Billions, Russia has given cheap discounts for energy, and gave Ukraine special trade status for its products, especially heavy industry. Currently, ukraine owes Russia what, $55 billion? How much more money do you think Russia needs to provide?
Quote:
Originally Posted by travric
Granted Ukriane is also responsible for this state of affairs but I'd say they're smart in looking to the West to help them develop economically. Seems to me they have got nothing to show from their neighbors to the East. Good constructive trade conceivably helps both partners. Russia, Ukraine's big powerful neighbor, I'm afraid dropped the ball here big time.
Ukraine is solely responsible for their affairs, and what happened again? Oh yes, voted in yet another oligarch, the type who are responsible for the state Ukraine is in.
Ukraine has plenty to show from trade with Russia, including generous diso****s and trade status. Russia was prepared to offer a very low interest loan of $billions, and keep a discounted gas deal; what has the West offered? Oh yes, horrific IMF laons, if Ukrainians think things are bad now, wait until these IMF loan conditions kick in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by travric
Perhaps if there's anything about this war especially the response from the workers in Donetsk it's that people want to live their lives advantageously with their families and enjoy the fruits of their labor. I don't see Mr. Putin's policy to Ukraine helping it. Why? Beacuse I belive he is beholden to the overall Russian image of the country. This Czar from the looks of it does not care for the common man and their wants and needs. If he did he'd be managing the relationship much much differently and not as a battle for control of who 'runs' things politically and economically. The fear he feels is palpable. He does not want Ukraine to succeed at all.....in any sphere of competiton. My humble opinion.
Actually, the people in the east are fighting for their economic viability; the deal with the EU and IMF is going to basically shut down industry in the east, destroying the economy of the east. At the same time, their cost of living is going to sky rocket in price due to IMF conditions on subsidizing energy.
The Ukrainian oligarchs are the ones who do not care about the country, all they want to do is sighon of funds where ever they can. So what does Ukraine do? They elect yet another oligarch, who will appoint into power more oligarchs. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
This same EU/Russia argument was heard during the Orange revolt, and looked how the Orange revolt turned out? Ukraine sunk even further after the "pro-West" leaders took charge.
Quote:
Originally Posted by travric
and boxus' comment on 'voting'. You seem to be skeptical on 'voting' in national states. Say did you 'trust' the Crimean vote?
I am not skeptical on voting, democratic systems work well when constitutional safeguards are put into place, and adhered to. However, this Ukrainian vote even if it is legitimate (which I think it is besides the issues of millions not being able to vote), is laughable given who won, I just think "what in the heck is wrong with you people"? In addition, Yanukovich won in a fair election, and well, we saw how that turned out; even though the election was one year away, and there are constitutional ways to remove the president, none of those courses of action were taken. So, what guarantee is there this president will serve out his full term? What about the next election? Every time west Ukraine has a leader they do not like, are they going to revolt?
Fact is, west Ukraine cannot field a candidate that will win. It would not surprise me at all if the powers-to-be were doing some backdoor antics in support of disrupting east ukraine from voting.
No, Crimea most likely was not a fair vote, not trust the results at all. However, there is about zero conflict going on there now, it is no debate that the majority support what happened, it is not like they are out in the street protesting in large numbers like what is going on in east Ukraine. I am curious what the end result is going to be.
It might be there are some Chechens among East - Ukrainian separatists. But I think they say lie that Kadyrov have sent them. Mister Kadyrov may sympathize Donetsk and Lugansk republics but he may not send any warriors to Ukraine. It is impossible. And people looking like Chechens say so to be more important.
But we have the information that anyone can join separatist groups have crossed Russia - Ukraine border. This border isn't very hard.
Anyone can cross it walking along narrow pathes or through fields and forests. The border hasn't got continuous line of barbed wire or others technical buildings - only barriers at wide roads. Because Ukraine supposed Russia to be a friendly country.
There is a proverb in Russia: "Simplicity is worse than thievery" .
I can tell about a fantastic, laughable and scandalous story. Russian politician Vladimir Shirinovskiy got a armoured jeep "Tiger". It was made for him by request. The politician promised to give the jeep to Lugansk republic's separatist. The gift crossed Russia - Ukraine border a month ago. Ukrainian frontier guards shot at the car and damaged the wheels but couldn't stop.
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Russia - Ukraine border
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