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There's a backlog on tests because everything is delayed a week or 2 before showing symptoms. Those tested tended to be more severe. They are not testing people who seem like they just have a minor cold, which statistically is most people that contract it.
Iceland tested a random 1,800 people with no symptoms and 1% were positive.
1% of the population of NYC is 86,000.
Just watch. I wish there was a "remind me" button on here.
Except that the symptoms aren't at all like a cold, so that should say statistically ALMOST NONE of the people who contract it. Just stop. You don't know what you're talking about.
"The estimated dates for the most recent common ancestor (and the 95% credible interval) are compatible with the TMRCA from the beginning to middle of December (Table 2). The earliest reported date of symptom onset for the initial cluster of pneumonia cases was 1st December 2019 [4]."
The "initial case of pneumonia cases" is simply when it raised enough red flags to be noticed. The fact that so many people are asymptomatic means it has been around for quite a while before that.
Except that the symptoms aren't at all like a cold, so that should say statistically ALMOST NONE of the people who contract it. Just stop. You don't know what you're talking about.
The symptoms for SOME people are exactly like a cold, at the start.
My local paper does not link well. I distinctly remember reading the fact that most of Victim O's synagogue was tested after he went to the hospital and wound up in critical condition. He has thankfully since recovered. But the testing wound up shutting my synagogue down since one of the people who tested positive was a part-time tutor of Bar Mitzvah children.
My BIL is sick. He was tested this morning. He was specifically told they would not test his wife and kids.
A village in Italy did something similar. They tested all 3,000 people living there regardless of symptoms and their quick study said 50-75% of the people who tested positive were asymptomatic, they didn't mention how many out of the 3,000 tested positive though.
Nonetheless, asymptomatic or quasi-symptomatic subjects represent a good 70% of all virus-infected people and, still worse, an unknown, yet impossible to ignore portion of them can transmit the virus to others. Full testing would give us a clearer picture of how many people actually have the virus, and how many pass it on.
The "initial case of pneumonia cases" is simply when it raised enough red flags to be noticed. The fact that so many people are asymptomatic means it has been around for quite a while before that.
Did you read the link about the genetics of the virus? The article you linked to was dated January 25 and is full of "ifs". I wonder if the genetic study would alter Dr. Lucey's thinking.
Why assume that it had only been circulating asymptomatically "for quite a while"? Where is the evidence for that?
The x-ray findings for COVID-19 are quite striking. In my opinion, I do not think the Chinese missed a lot of cases that they diagnosed as other causes of pneumonia.
The "initial case of pneumonia cases" is simply when it raised enough red flags to be noticed. The fact that so many people are asymptomatic means it has been around for quite a while before that.
No, it doesn't. That makes no logical sense at all. That first symptomatic case could have been the very first person infected, the 12th, or the 120th. There is no way to know, and no basis for saying it must have been around for quite a while before that. No basis AT ALL.
BTW that article's hypothesis is 2 months old, and doesn't seem to have gained much traction.
I think I'll stick with the advice of the experts. He's a neurosurgeon, and out of everything you posted and everything I've read, he's the only one who had cold symptoms.
I was sick 3 weeks ago with what seems to be a bad cold. Coughing, felt sick, low grade fever. Lasted a few days but I still have an occasional dry cough. None of my family got it so I am sure wasn't more then that.
It's been 2 weeks being sick now. I think I've made some slight progress since my post 2 days ago. I can function mostly as normal, I'd say my breathing is probably about 90% of normal. Still have a cough and the feeling of something in my chest. Being upright helps, when I lay down that is when I start coughing and my lungs are irritated. Two nights ago I had to force myself to throw up, just to get rid of as much bile and mucus in my throat/lungs as I could because I couldn't stop coughing. Mucinex and a hot shower helps.
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