Atlantic - Laura forms August 21, 2020 (predict, house, Houston, pressure)

[Psychoma]

Wed 11aEDT/10aCDT
Winds 125mph(205km)
Moving NW 16mph(26km/h)
Pressure 956mb
Center about 225miles(365km) SSE of Lake Charles, LA
Center about 235miles(375km) SE of Galveston, TX
Cat 3, but Cat4 any moment.
Hurricane winds extend up to 70miles(110km) from center, TS winds 175miles(280km) was

Still strengthening, now expected to reach 145mph this afternoon.
Surge has been increased as a result, values per NHC update list:
Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

“Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.” -NHC

[Jnvlv247]

"catastrophic"

They use the word to describe literally everyone major weather event

We are desensitized. The word has no meaning and people either freak out again or say, yeah right ok. Are we to believe the hype now or lateR?

[victimofGM]

Originally Posted by Jnvlv247

"catastrophic"

They use the word to describe literally everyone major weather event

We are desensitized. The word has no meaning and people either freak out again or say, yeah right ok. Are we to believe the hype now or lateR?

Those of us who live on the coast know cat3 and above means trouble.

[USNRET04]

Originally Posted by Psychoma

This is a great tool for monitoring surge heights, this is what I usually pull surge measurements from when storms landfall.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/in...orm/Laura.html

A 15-20 ft surge is not survivable. The surge could go up to 30 miles inland in some places.

[Psychoma]

Originally Posted by USNRET04

A 15-20 ft surge is not survivable. The surge could go up to 30 miles inland in some places.

And not to mention some of the water gauges may stop working or not be able to measure that high.

And to put surge heights into perspective:

[latunafish]

Originally Posted by victimofGM

Oh no! Jim Cantore is in Lake Charles! That’s less than an hour from where I am!

i bet he won't be on the shore reporting tonight!

[Psychoma]

Tornado Warnings(occurring now/imminent) are starting to pop up here and there. This is to be expected as rain bands come onshore and typically track quickly in the direction of / with the rain band. Tornadoes will be most likely to occur in the Northeast corner of the storm but can occasionally occur elsewhere.

[Psychoma]

This is an interesting thread of images...they overlaid Lake Charles poss surge with 3D google buildings map:
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/s...72082469953538

[twingles]

Originally Posted by Jnvlv247

"catastrophic"

They use the word to describe literally everyone major weather event

We are desensitized. The word has no meaning and people either freak out again or say, yeah right ok. Are we to believe the hype now or lateR?

I think most people who live at sea level and particularly having been through some recent storms know the deal. I've seen many people on the news saying, already done this over the last few years, not doing it again.

[Psychoma]

Wed 2pEDT/1pCDT
Winds 140mph(220km)
Moving NW 16mph(26km/h)
Pressure 952mb
Center about 200miles(320km) SSE of Lake Charles, LA
Center about 200miles(320km) SSE of Port Arthur, TX
Hurricane winds extend up to 70miles(110km) from center, TS winds 175miles(280km).

Cat4 now.
TS winds now being reported along the LA coast - Eugene Island sustained 39mph, gust 64mph.