Covid virus in phoenix (Surprise: shoppers, dinners, pictures)

[Valley Native]

The problem with models is they are largely inaccurate, and they can only be used as a tool or a guide at best. Unfortunately, too many people rely on models as decisive predictions for what the future holds, but what actually occurs is often the opposite.

A good example of this is the huge El Niño that occurred in 2015 & 2016. NOAA's models predicted that a large portion of CA and the SW would receive abundant, heavy precipitation during that particular winter ... so, it goes without saying that this became a major news story with warnings for everybody to prepare for the potential for Biblical floods to occur. We all know what actually happened: that winter turned out to be not only unusually dry, but unusually warm for CA & the SW.

So much for models. I suppose they're entertaining for the nerdy types who enjoy sitting behind a screen playing with data all day, but why should we rely so much on their predictions when they're really no more accurate than a crystal ball in terms of what to expect? So far, the only results I've seen from most models is they hype they create.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

The problem with models is they are largely inaccurate, and they can only be used as a tool or a guide at best. Unfortunately, too many people rely on models as decisive predictions for what the future holds, but what actually occurs is often the opposite.

A good example of this is the huge El Niño that occurred in 2015 & 2016. NOAA's models predicted that a large portion of CA and the SW would receive abundant, heavy precipitation during that particular winter ... so, it goes without saying that this became a major news story with warnings for everybody to prepare for the potential for Biblical floods to occur. We all know what actually happened: that winter turned out to be not only unusually dry, but unusually warm for CA & the SW.

So much for models. I suppose they're entertaining for the nerdy types who enjoy sitting behind a screen playing with data all day, but why should we rely so much on their predictions when they're really no more accurate than a crystal ball in terms of what to expect? So far, the only results I've seen from most models is they hype they create.

Right on as a guide. It's actually good to make them wrong. It's when they keep coming back with scarier and scarier projections that you have to start to think that the model makers might have some type of the world-is-ending syndrome.
Hey, the upside is maybe people will take a closer look at the global warming models now.

[kell490]

We did hit 70000 dead in less then 90 days no one is talking about the FLU comparison anymore even Fox news.

[DetroitN8V]

Just wait til the anti-maskers hit the dining scene on Monday.

[Hal Roach]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

Just wait til the anti-maskers hit the dining scene on Monday.

You can eat with a mask on?

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by Hal Roach

You can eat with a mask on?

Nope. Sort of the point.

[Burning Madolf]

Just got my new mask:

[wase4711]

on you, it looks good

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by wase4711

on you, it looks good

Thanks. And only $179: https://www.vyzrtech.com/products/bio-vyzr

[bigdogmom13]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Just got my new mask:

Oh, it's a PAPR: And a good looking one to boot!! I used them when I was working (I was a respiratory therapist); they're actually better than an n95 because of the air circulation. Perfect for the slightly older menopausal woman with hot flashes!