Covid virus in phoenix (restriction, market, rain)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by hikernut

MN-Born-n-Raised subscribes to the theory that we are all going to get the virus eventually, so let's just get it over with quickly.

Almost.. "..so let's manage the crisis/immunity". Like Sweden. Because super old and sick people that have one leg in the ground are at risk now AND later. Their odds increase with the herd immunity approach all the while they are being isolated. In other words, let's not tank the country/world in the process. Work the numbers per death. Many of which were already well on their way. And while we are being candid, some people are not taking care of themselves... STILL! Now I resemble that comment. But I got off my arse and did something about it. It's called personal responsibility. You know, like getting ones family finances in order. Some people think it's "predatory lending" because someone told them they could "afford" that new Ram trunk. People in the States are lousy at personal finance too.

Don't shoot the messenger. When there was real uncertainty, I was the 1st to say PAUSE! But the numbers are coming in. It's fairly easy to see what's going on.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Almost.. "..so let's manage the crisis/immunity". Like Sweden. Because super old and sick people that have one leg in the ground are at risk now AND later. Their odds increase with the herd immunity approach all the while they are being isolated. In other words, let's not tank the country/world in the process. Work the numbers per death. Many of which were already well on their way. And while we are being candid, some people are not taking care of themselves... STILL! Now I resemble that comment. But I got off my arse and did something about it. It's called personal responsibility. You know, like getting ones family finances in order. Some people think it's "predatory lending" because someone told them they could "afford" that new Ram trunk. People in the States are lousy at personal finance too.

Don't shoot the messenger. When there was real uncertainty, I was the 1st to say PAUSE! But the numbers are coming in. It's fairly easy to see what's going on.

You need to stop it with Sweden. Their case rate and death rate are both trending very strongly in the wrong direction. Compared to their neighbors they are a failure when it comes to controlling the virus. As for the economy, no nation can be strong economically when the entire world is shut down. Might as well save lives.

And keeping it local, the heat wave has done nothing so far to reduce the spread in Arizona. At best we have been level for a week or two. But if you squint when looking at the graphs, you see an upward trend.

[Bates419]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

"If you don't test, quarantine, and trace this virus could go for awhile."
This is what you said.
This takes a lot of time (doesn't matter if the test is instant).

This keeps the economy closed.

No it doesn't. We take the highest risk frontline people and test them everytime they show for work. If they test positive it's an instant quarantine and and trace their contacts since last shift. Test all contacts. Most of the deaths are from care homes and seniors complexes with some hospital. If we can keep those places under wraps from spread and everyone else moves safely with social distancing and good hygiene the spread of covid will be greatly reduced. Society can return to somewhat normal with greatly reduced risk.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Bates419

No it doesn't. We take the highest risk frontline people and test them everytime they show for work. If they test positive it's an instant quarantine and and trace their contacts since last shift. Test all contacts. Most of the deaths are from care homes and seniors complexes with some hospital. If we can keep those places under wraps from spread and everyone else moves safely with social distancing and good hygiene the spread of covid will be greatly reduced. Society can return to somewhat normal with greatly reduced risk.

It takes days to get a test result. Employers don't have Abbott machines. There is no way to practically test workers. Nurses and doctors who deal with COVID can't even get a test unless they have symptoms. Go out on the streets. Go to a construction site, have a look at landscape crews. Visit your local supermarket. Get gas. Who is doing social distancing? Very few are masked. The Arizona effort and the adherence is a joke.
Fear not, though, like the rest of the country we will be "opening" and the virus will come back worse than it was. There is no end to this other than a vaccine or a couple years of immense suffering and economic pain.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

You need to stop it with Sweden. Their case rate and death rate are both trending very strongly in the wrong direction. Compared to their neighbors they are a failure when it comes to controlling the virus. As for the economy, no nation can be strong economically when the entire world is shut down. Might as well save lives.

And keeping it local, the heat wave has done nothing so far to reduce the spread in Arizona. At best we have been level for a week or two. But if you squint when looking at the graphs, you see an upward trend.

As you know, 50% of the deaths are in senior homes. They need to do a MUCH better job with isolating their elderly. When their neighboring countries come out, watch round two (and round three). Each time, killing their economy. So the people at the helm aren't statistically-challenged. Rather, they understand flattening the curve doesn't mean that cases disappear rather, they are just moved in time to a later date. Still, they are flattening the curve by their hybrid approach. And when it all said and done, their neighbors are going to take on more debt and crush their industries.

2586 deaths to date (1/2 in senior homes) / 10,000,000*100. That's 0.002% fatalities. Oh my! Call me a risk-taker, but when it "explodes" to 10x more in total fatalities or 0.02%, I think the world will call that a success. And candidly speaking, Or do think they should tank their economies like their neighbors?

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Don't shoot the messenger. When there was real uncertainty, I was the 1st to say PAUSE! But the numbers are coming in. It's fairly easy to see what's going on.

Really? We don't have a good idea what's the total number of people infected, what is the mortality rate, what is the rate of reinfection, etc. With such little testing we are really flying blind.

To me, it seems there are a few possible end games...

(1) the miracle vaccine, in which case we can get back to life as we knew it at some point
(2) herd immunity, which also affords returning to normalcy, but with quite a lot of (perhaps unnecessary) death along the way
(3) the virus is seasonal and/or mutates, and is with us for a long time. In this scenario "life as we knew it" is probably not returning. Parts of it will, but many people will choose to avoid air travel and events with large numbers of people.
(4) the virus is contained and disappears

You have decided you know with certainty which of these outcomes it is going to be. It's probably too late for #4, as it's spread too far and wide across the planet and there's no coordinated effort to contain it. But to me it seems any of the other three are still a possibility.

[Sno0909]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

You need to stop it with Sweden. Their case rate and death rate are both trending very strongly in the wrong direction. Compared to their neighbors they are a failure when it comes to controlling the virus. As for the economy, no nation can be strong economically when the entire world is shut down. Might as well save lives.

And keeping it local, the heat wave has done nothing so far to reduce the spread in Arizona. At best we have been level for a week or two. But if you squint when looking at the graphs, you see an upward trend.

I would say the "heat wave" just recently started. The numbers they are currently releasing would not reflect any heat wave variable.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Sno0909

I would say the "heat wave" just recently started. The numbers they are currently releasing would not reflect any heat wave variable.

I would agree except that the briefing the other day was talking about temps of 75 degrees and 20% humidity with sunshine being highly effective. We have had that for weeks at least. Actually, Arizona may get worse with summer as we all head indoors to the AC coming closer together. The US missed the chance to contain it with a very serious lockdown, testing and tracing back in February. So, the bottom line is the virus is going to continue in waves that rise and fall until 200 million or so of us get it with a couple million who would otherwise have had some good years left dying of it.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I'm saying that unless we want to stay isolated for another year before a COVID shot is developed, staying in place is pushing out the inevitable. Yea, waiting for more PPE to arrive is a good thing. But when you open the spigot, 97% of the people are going to overrun the hospitals. So the only thing that has changed is people are losing income, getting fatter, slapping their kids and wives around more, etc. Because it was delayed in rural areas, basically, nobody has any antibodies. Let's compare that to say San Fran or LA. 20% have been exposed and the hospitals (albeit stressed) are keeping up.

So let's "open up MN". Guess what, in 4-6 months, a rush will happen on the infrastructure. What was gained? Maybe a few more ventilators and some make-shift PPE's?

Overall, this is a lot more reasonable than the rhetoric you were spewing over a month ago, which sounded much more panic stricken. These mitigation efforts have obviously solved little or nothing, but instead have created more paranoia, as well as put a chokehold on our freedoms & pushed the economy off a cliff. Seems that you have finally come around to the my reasoning, which by the way has been nearly consistent all along.

In case you haven't read the article below, it's definitely worth looking at. Even though it's opinionated, it provides data & facts regarding the affliction & death rates from COVID 19, and overall the numbers are pretty minuscule in the big picture. It also mentions Sweden (as you have also mentioned) and their herd immunity, which is known through medical science to create antibodies. Isolation and quarantines are vastly unhealthy & unproductive.

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthca...otal-isolation

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by hikernut

Really? We don't have a good idea what's the total number of people infected, what is the mortality rate, what is the rate of reinfection, etc. With such little testing we are really flying blind.

Sure we do. but only in LA, the Bay area and NY. I cover the math before in earlier posts ago and I'm not doing it again but it's 5th grade math. No, not in areas where there are high concentration of unhealthy people (MI, IL, LA). It very well might be multiple times worse. But they made their bed....

Of course with more testing, we can do an infinitely better job. The reality is this isn't REMOTELY the killing machine that people were concerned about. And unless something changes with these DAMN wet markets, expect another and another and another round. Psst, there are about 1000 animal viruses that can head our way. Watch the Netflix special on the topic. It's only been warned about over and over. We all put our head in the sand. I digress.

People with risks need to address it or hide. It's as simple as that. With more data, we can do so much of a better job. In the meantime, you can worry about mutation, re-infection rates that are well understood in other related viruses. You see, people who study this for a living don't see this as scary. But people who don't understand it are. I get it. So your vote is to roll the dice on TANKING the country JUST in case. Because I don't hear any concerns coming out from the scientists. Rather, the clickbait news which people are gobbling up.