Covid virus in phoenix (Mesa, Glendale: houses, theatre, prices)

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

We already know that about 55 times more people have been infected and have antibodies already versus people who get sick. That's only about 2 week old info. THAT IS A GAME CHANGER! And we statistically know who is dying more than others. So quarantine the highest risk while having people do a hybrid amount of social distancing. Also, wash your hands like made, don't rub your face and the new cases should stay manageable. Ramp up testing to see when hot spots are pending and put out the "ambers" accordingly.

Now if you want more precise information, then you are going to risk decimate the world economy. Oh, that right.... We won't know that until the history books are written. Fair enough. But we are playing with fire right now. I'm hear to tell you that I'm on the frontlines who are talking with the movers and the shakers. Rest assured when the dust settles, a lot of folks will be still laid off. And I'm not talking about the obvious vocations. Worse yet, the cost-benefit-analysis is not being discussed much. At 3.5% mortality rate and not knowing who is the victims are going to be DOES warrant a lot of panic and concern. But the people who SHOULD be concerned best educate themselves and take appropriate measures. Unless they are too damn stupid. Which I suspect includes a lot of people.

re: people not wanting to go out. So very true! So no, it's not going back to "normal" in the next year. But a lot has to do with getting conditioning to the new norm. Analogy: It's like saying people in Israel don't go out because they are worried about getting shelled or killed. They adapted. And health(ier) people, statistically speaking, are going to be fine. Waiting to be 100% convinced might be catastrophic.

All that said, each region of the country should apply things differently. I'm speaking of the PHX area. Not NYC or _____________.

Seriously, treating every part of the country like we are in the same sinking dingy is nuts.
The biggest commonality is that this virus kills a lot of old people.
Half the people dead in NYC were over 75
223 out of 293 dead in AZ were over 65 (I've repeatedly suggested to ADHS in their feedback section that the break the 65 and over category down into at least 75 and over and maybe even 80 or 85 and older).

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Seriously, treating every part of the country like we are in the same sinking dingy is nuts.
The biggest commonality is that this virus kills a lot of old people.
Half the people dead in NYC were over 75
223 out of 293 dead in AZ were over 65 (I've repeatedly suggested to ADHS in their feedback section that the break the 65 and over category down into at least 75 and over and maybe even 80 or 85 and older).

Burning Madolf. Inquiring minds what to know. What line of work were you in before you retired? You have been blessed with a research-oriented mind and a pretty darn good data miner.

[belgirl]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Seriously, treating every part of the country like we are in the same sinking dingy is nuts.
The biggest commonality is that this virus kills a lot of old people.
Half the people dead in NYC were over 75
223 out of 293 dead in AZ were over 65 (I've repeatedly suggested to ADHS in their feedback section that the break the 65 and over category down into at least 75 and over and maybe even 80 or 85 and older).

Spot on.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Burning Madolf. Inquiring minds what to know. What line of work were you in before you retired? You have been blessed with a research-oriented mind and a pretty darn good data miner.

Independent futures trader. Terrible at programming, but my last boss loved to try and get me to find an anomalies in our executions (times, prices paid, etc.).

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Burning Madolf. Inquiring minds what to know. What line of work were you in before you retired? You have been blessed with a research-oriented mind and a pretty darn good data miner.

One more thing, my AZ to NYC comparison was WRONG.
I used NYC over 75 and I should have used over 65 (same as AZ uses):
NYC over 65 deaths 8683 out of 11820.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Seriously, treating every part of the country like we are in the same sinking dingy is nuts.
The biggest commonality is that this virus kills a lot of old people.
Half the people dead in NYC were over 75
223 out of 293 dead in AZ were over 65 (I've repeatedly suggested to ADHS in their feedback section that the break the 65 and over category down into at least 75 and over and maybe even 80 or 85 and older).

Plus the high percentage on & around reservations outweigh pretty much anything in & around Phoenix. Look at the map below as a good example. The counties shaded in purple have the greatest percentage of confirmed cases ... and many of those areas in the western U.S. are rural areas, including many tribal lands. The high affliction rate among "Native Americans" is why Navajo & Apache Counties are shaded in purple. Based on this alone, it seems that all of the Phoenix metro should reopen ASAP, but let the reservations stay on lockdown. What the hell is there to do on a reservation anyway?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

[kell490]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

One more thing, my AZ to NYC comparison was WRONG.
I used NYC over 75 and I should have used over 65 (same as AZ uses):
NYC over 65 deaths 8683 out of 11820.

I was expecting more deaths here because of our large retirement communities, but because we live in single family homes instead of large apartment buildings spread has been stopped.

I have always suspected this virus can travel though apartment buildings HVAC systems that are shared which is very common back east in NYC.

Even here our apartments use small dedicated heat pumps that isolates the air to each apartment.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by kell490

I was expecting more deaths here because of our large retirement communities, but because we live in single family homes instead of large apartment buildings spread has been stopped.

I have always suspected this virus can travel though apartment buildings HVAC systems that are shared which is very common back east in NYC.

Even here our apartments use small dedicated heat pumps that isolates the air to each apartment.

None of my NYC apartments had shared A/C. A common passive vent in the kitchen, but I doubt that was a spreader. That being said, every elevator button, every door to the trash shoot, the common rooms within the buildings (fitness, pool) even in lock down could prevent distancing. We also shouldn't forget the subway, still open, over 80 MTA deaths.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by kell490

I was expecting more deaths here because of our large retirement communities, but because we live in single family homes instead of large apartment buildings spread has been stopped.

You're another one who somehow believes this myth. Does everybody in a single family home just stay inside all day? No, they go to shopping centers, restaurants, bars, movie theatres, hospitals, and other places where crowds gather & germs are spread ... and therefore, are just as likely to acquire COVID 19 (or any other virus). If living in a single family home stopped the spread, then suburban areas like Gilbert, Mesa, and Peoria should have few or no cases, and downtown Phoenix & Tempe should have the most cases. In reality, the top 3 zip codes in the metro with the most confirmed cases are:
85206 (Mesa, Gilbert) with 124
85382 (Peoria, Glendale) with 114
85224 (Chandler) with 106

[kell490]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

You're another one who somehow believes this myth. Does everybody in a single family home just stay inside all day? No, they go to shopping centers, restaurants, bars, movie theatres, hospitals, and other places where crowds gather & germs are spread ... and therefore, are just as likely to acquire COVID 19 (or any other virus). If living in a single family home stopped the spread, then suburban areas like Gilbert, Mesa, and Peoria should have few or no cases, and downtown Phoenix & Tempe should have the most cases. In reality, the top 3 zip codes in the metro with the most confirmed cases are:
85206 (Mesa, Gilbert) with 124
85382 (Peoria, Glendale) with 114
85224 (Chandler) with 106

How else do you explain our much lower death rates even with high number of 65 year plus population?