Covid virus in phoenix (amusement parks, ticket, parks)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Overall, this is a lot more reasonable than the rhetoric you were spewing over a month ago, which sounded much more panic stricken.

Really? Because I let the data skew my opinion? Meanwhile, you were speaking from your emotions (like the rest of your post). Yep, you got me.

[belgirl]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

It takes days to get a test result. Employers don't have Abbott machines. There is no way to practically test workers. Nurses and doctors who deal with COVID can't even get a test unless they have symptoms. Go out on the streets. Go to a construction site, have a look at landscape crews. Visit your local supermarket. Get gas. Who is doing social distancing? Very few are masked. The Arizona effort and the adherence is a joke.
Fear not, though, like the rest of the country we will be "opening" and the virus will come back worse than it was. There is no end to this other than a vaccine or a couple years of immense suffering and economic pain.

You have absolutely no proof it is going to come back worse than it was. That's fear of the unknown speaking - not facts.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Really? Because I let the data skew my opinion? Meanwhile, you were speaking from your emotions. Yep, you got me. I change my mind based off of data.

No, I was speaking from facts and continue to do so. Fact: less than 1% of the entire U.S. population has tested positive (with the exception of certain places like New York which is slightly over 1%). Fact: unemployment has increased dramatically from 3% to around 15% during the time when these restrictions took place. Fact: 24% of businesses have already shut down (as of early April). This is straight from Marketwatch.

Anybody with half a brain can obviously see that the forced restrictions are having much more of a negative impact on our society than the virus itself. You on the other hand were letting the data at the time influence your emotions, even stating that you spoke with medical experts who were "scared sh*tless". Much of what the experts were saying initially was largely based on emotion & fear ... and in many ways, it continues.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by Bates419

No it doesn't. We take the highest risk frontline people and test them everytime they show for work. If they test positive it's an instant quarantine and and trace their contacts since last shift. Test all contacts. Most of the deaths are from care homes and seniors complexes with some hospital. If we can keep those places under wraps from spread and everyone else moves safely with social distancing and good hygiene the spread of covid will be greatly reduced. Society can return to somewhat normal with greatly reduced risk.

Well, now we are getting somewhere away from testing everyone (which is how I read your post).
You are still pointing to a pretty difficult task with testing every first-responder on every shift and then forcing them out of work for weeks at a time, that bench will shorten very quickly. Hopefully antibody testing will be the biggest help there.

As for isolating the most vulnerable, absolutely!
Most of the deaths in NYC, NJ and CT are showing the elderly and especially the elderly with serious underlying conditions (from NYC: Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, GI/Liver Disease, and Obesity) are very susceptible to death.
That being said, still only 6000 people over 65 with known underlying conditions (out of a NYC population of over 8 million) have died. Not to belittle these deaths but public policy can never be about saving every single person as some politicians have alluded to.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by belgirl

You have absolutely no proof it is going to come back worse than it was. That's fear of the unknown speaking - not facts.

Some wish to see the glass half full. Some are more realistic. Given the intolerance of Americans for any sacrifice, I see little reason to believe that this virus won't behave in the worst way possible. In any case, one hopes for the best but plans for the worst. Keep buying toilet paper.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by hikernut

Really? We don't have a good idea what's the total number of people infected, what is the mortality rate, what is the rate of reinfection, etc. With such little testing we are really flying blind.

To me, it seems there are a few possible end games...

(1) the miracle vaccine, in which case we can get back to life as we knew it at some point
(2) herd immunity, which also affords returning to normalcy, but with quite a lot of (perhaps unnecessary) death along the way
(3) the virus is seasonal and/or mutates, and is with us for a long time. In this scenario "life as we knew it" is probably not returning. Parts of it will, but many people will choose to avoid air travel and events with large numbers of people.
(4) the virus is contained and disappears

You have decided you know with certainty which of these outcomes it is going to be. It's probably too late for #4, as it's spread too far and wide across the planet and there's no coordinated effort to contain it. But to me it seems any of the other three are still a possibility.

We actually have better real data now than we had when we made the decision to decimate the economy.
From the death data alone available now, we can extrapolate plenty of usable information. Places like AZ showing 320 people have died, 58% were male, 46% were white, etc. is ok (combined with NYC info it says if you are an old guy with other health issues stay home ), but we can and should break that info down even further by age, underlying issues, etc., to help come up with real plans for trying to save the economy, country and all the lives being lost, not only from this virus but from all the other illnesses that have now gone from the back burner to right off the stove.

[LBTRS]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Some wish to see the glass half full. Some are more realistic. Given the intolerance of Americans for any sacrifice, I see little reason to believe that this virus won't behave in the worst way possible. In any case, one hopes for the best but plans for the worst. Keep buying toilet paper.

You're not paying attention. Meat is the hot commodity now, TP is old news. Shelves were bare of meat at Sams Club and Fry's when we went yesterday.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

No, I was speaking from facts and continue to do so. Fact: less than 1% of the entire U.S. population has tested positive (with the exception of certain places like New York which is slightly over 1%). Fact: unemployment has increased dramatically from 3% to around 15% during the time when these restrictions took place. Fact: 24% of businesses have already shut down (as of early April). This is straight from Marketwatch.

Allow me to help with a history lesson totaling two months. You nor I knew SQUAT about this disease other than preliminary results. Those turned out to be skewed. Yet, we didn't know the magnitude until a Stanford study. What was that, two weeks back? But you don't make a policy with one study. I called it hopeful and a game-changer. So when the 2nd study came out AND we learned that their tests were accurate (remember; false positives can be a MASSIVE 15% in some of the tests) no person in the world would have guessed upwards of 55X to 85X of the people would not have a symptom. No one would have known because the antibody test wasn't around.

Your POV has always been emotional in nature. Why? Because it's pretty obvious that statistics is not your strength. I don't know jack about construction, the arts, and literature. But I'm smart to see when someone doesn't get the math. The reason why the whole frigging world shut down is because of the unknown. So IF the only way to get antibodies is to get extremely ill, then the factual made the right move of shutting it down to "flatten the curve". That was the whole point in this exercise. The concern was millions of people unable to get healthcare and dropping like flies! I'll say it again, it's why the whole world shut down!

I'm going out on a limb that statistics aren't your strength. Because you were thinking it was brilliant to go forward when the 3.5-5% death tolls were being (mis)quoted by the WHO and the CDC. Oh (in a whiny voice) "the so-called'experts" bla bla bla. Yea, they ARE experts. About 50 orders of magnitude smarter than us relating to the topic of viruses. I guess they should have called VN and asked if he predicted 55 times to 85 times of people were walking around with the antibodies. You are modifying history and it was only a couple months old. Being consistent while being ignorant and picking the right answer doesn't deserve a prize.

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Anybody with half a brain can obviously see that the forced restrictions are having much more of a negative impact on our society than the virus itself.

Duh! And that's my point. Because with two-week-old info, 55x-85x more people are running around perfectly fine. Therefore, "OPEN the spigots" on a state-by-state or regional basis.

I know. I scare easy while you will send your 80-year-old mom out for a perm. I tried "scaring people"?? No, I said, "go at it", I'm fine what I'm doing. The ONLY people I cared about was my family and the people on the frontlines like the medical community. Now that doesn't stop me from thinking people who ignored being cautious were idiots because the meat-heads didn't have a piece of data to support it (other than statistical lies which happened on both sides of this debate).

[kell490]

Went to my Primary care doctor yesterday not related to covid while talking to him I asked how many Covid cases did they get. He said only one case he knew of I was shocked this is a high volume Honor health Primary care doctors office. He did say early on they didn't know who had it because no way to test, but they treated as any respiratory illness.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by LBTRS

You're not paying attention. Meat is the hot commodity now, TP is old news. Shelves were bare of meat at Sams Club and Fry's when we went yesterday.

yeah, we saw that when we went to Safeway yesterday. We did get some pork though. This hoarding business is getting absurd. We should shoot hoarders.