Covid virus in phoenix (deal, finance, employers)

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by belgirl

Who the heck is going to get tested if they don't show symptoms? No one will see a reason to unless they know they have been around someone who is exposed. Unless you go directly into supposed hot spots and say "Ok, you are all going to get tested whether you like it or not", I just don't see 20,000 a week ever happening.

20,000 a week could be just frontline workers, and not even close to all of them. If the community spread has been wildly understated as some have surmised, then they’ll (mostly) all test with antibodies and everyone can get back to normal life. If they don’t have antibodies, then you’ll know that closures weren’t a bad idea. I’d expect most of those 20,000 tests will be mandatory- required by employers to protect the public.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

20,000 a week could be just frontline workers, and not even close to all of them. If the community spread has been wildly understated as some have surmised, then they’ll (mostly) all test with antibodies and everyone can get back to normal life. If they don’t have antibodies, then you’ll know that closures weren’t a bad idea. I’d expect most of those 20,000 tests will be mandatory- required by employers to protect the public.

I suspect there are communities like northern MN that will test far below average community spread percentages across the country. Maybe 3% of the population tests positive for the antibodies? So those communities are in for a surprise. Based on how this whole lockdown has been mismanaged, I imagine massive areas of the country that have been busy ruining their economy and barely any community spread has happened. When they open the spigots, they basically accomplished hiding in their home for 8 weeks.

Watch. When all is said and done, Sweden's approach will be hailed as the best way. New Zealand seems to be able to squash their outbreaks because they are on an island. Let's see how that works for them in the long run, considering tourism is their #1 industry (China the # tourist country). Maybe they can afford to hold out longer because they have near-zero national NZ, let's see how long they can last eating venison while drinking their white wine. I was in NZ for three weeks in February. If they would "let me in", I'd move there in a heartbeat. As a society, it's the best I've observed so far. Sweden was also inspiring.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

You're another one who somehow believes this myth. Does everybody in a single family home just stay inside all day? No, they go to shopping centers, restaurants, bars, movie theatres, hospitals, and other places where crowds gather & germs are spread ... and therefore, are just as likely to acquire COVID 19 (or any other virus). If living in a single family home stopped the spread, then suburban areas like Gilbert, Mesa, and Peoria should have few or no cases, and downtown Phoenix & Tempe should have the most cases. In reality, the top 3 zip codes in the metro with the most confirmed cases are:
85206 (Mesa, Gilbert) with 124
85382 (Peoria, Glendale) with 114
85224 (Chandler) with 106

In order to make a judgment, you need to isolate variables in order to understand what they mean. So you have to normalize https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalization_(statistics) . Right now, you are mixing variables like population, age, income, education, etc inside of metro areas.

OF COURSE you increase the chances of getting a virus from "shopping centers, restaurants, bars, movie theatres, hospitals, and other places where crowds gather & germs are spread". When we look at income, we learn that poor people have worse health. Therefore, when you show me that the demographics are the same in a downtown location versus a suburb, (age, race, income, etc), then I'm all ears. Because as asufan pointed out, in the town of Chandler, there is a wide range of demographics.

So the question is: all things being equal, when people live much closer together do they get sick more, less, or the same? Let's normalize it. Let's take 100, 75 years olds in Sun City. 50 live in a single-family home and practice pretty good social isolation. The other 50 live in an apartment a block down the road. The SFH seniors have their kids visit. And in the 50 room apartment complex, their kids visit too. Which location would you like your mom to live in? The apartment or the SFH exclusively related to this virus? Are they the same?

In my personal example which I care about and discussed how I LOVE living in a bigger wide-open burb, I'm the posterchild of "social distancing". I have not been to a restaurant or any closed-in public room for close to 6 weeks. I go for 8-mile bike rides in addition to a 3 mile walks every day. I'm not coming out of my hole until I get down to 195 pounds (6'2 and lost 15 pounds: 15 more to go). 6-7 weeks more to go. I digress.

Are you suggesting that I'm just as safe (virus spreading wise) if I lived in a 15-floor condo downtown where I'm passing people left and right as I take my walk? Remember, in order to go exist, I'm touching buttons, door handles, and walking by visitors. I'm riding up an elevator with my neighbors and their guests. Some of which might feel the need to sneeze or cough in the elevator ride up or down.

Now if your point is that practically speaking, there are 1,000 ways to be exposed every day and since people are not "social distancing very well", living in a SFH is #29th of importance and therefore it doesn't show in the numbers, then I suppose we agree.

But you are arguing something rather silly because you are taking it out of context. Our back-patting exercise (for feeling safer) was coming from a couple of people who are isolating. As in, we are not screwing up. asufan cannot train his younger children not to touch the elevator key 100% of the time. Or hold their breath and shut their eyes on the way down the elevator while someone is coughing. I'm surprised this easy statement can get by anyone? It's common sense.

You have called senior centers basically death centers. As in, it would be like putting your mom in a hostel environment. We agree!!! Yet you want "seniors like your mom to get her hair done: OPEN UP THE SALON's". Huh? Do you see the irony? If not, let me debate that if your mom might as well stay a senior (death) center if she gets to go wherever she wants.

[Bates419]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Testing would take forever and while we wait the economy stays about 70% closed. Great plan that will end up being 100s of times worse than the virus.

I don't recall mentioning keeping the economy closed in my post. And new tests give a result in 15 minutes.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I suspect there are communities like northern MN that will test far below average community spread percentages across the country. Maybe 3% of the population tests positive for the antibodies? So those communities are in for a surprise. Based on how this whole lockdown has been mismanaged, I imagine massive areas of the country that have been busy ruining their economy and barely any community spread has happened. When they open the spigots, they basically accomplished hiding in their home for 8 weeks.

.

??

If a community has 3% positive antibodies, then the stay at home order did exactly what it was supposed to do - slow down the spread so we had a chance to find and produce protective equipment and ventilators, staff up hospitals etc.

The rate of infection was, at one point - doubling every couple of days, that’s where the initial models showed the potential for millions of deaths. The last data I remember seeing was the infection rate doubling after something like 20 days - that’s an amazing change that even the modelers didn’t anticipate. Now we’ve got at least *some* testing capabilities and PPE and vents are at least on the radar. Plus, we know how vulnerable we are with things like prisons, schools, public transportation & old-folks homes.

I don’t think many people who are itching to lower the restrictions are aware of what a fine line we’re treading on. In Michigan, the legislature is trying to over-rule the governor’s emergency declaration today - based on the theory that “rural areas aren’t the same as Detroit” - which is actually 100% true, but not in a way that is conducive to lowering restrictions. The entire upper peninsula of Michigan has 59 icu beds, 30 of which are occupied. Yeah, the infection rate there is currently low - but you could exceed icu capacity very easily if the infection rate starts doubling twice a week..

I definitely agree that it is time to open the gates a bit and allow some commerce for sanity and for the economy - we’re about to start losing hospital capacity permanently due to the expenses that they’re taking on, and the facilities that survive are likely to be the kind that we don’t want to go to - mega-corp hospitals & mega-corp old-folks homes are the ones who’ve done the worst jobs so far at protecting their patients and staff simply because understaffing and skimping on PPE and training enhances profit.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by Bates419

I don't recall mentioning keeping the economy closed in my post. And new tests give a result in 15 minutes.

Meh- the 15 minute tests even before coronavirus we’re not a whole lot better than a “magic 8-ball” as far as accuracy, the new ones haven’t been vetted at all & the FDA has pretty much completely abdicated it’s responsibility for oversight. Plus, they’ve handily put liability limits on manufacturers - so they can ship whatever Chinese garbage they can produce without repercussions. Months or years from now the public is going to be really really mad about the billions spent on inaccurate tests that probably enhanced the spread of this. The first people who got the unreliable tests were the ones who had the capability to spread it the worst.

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

??

If a community has 3% positive antibodies, then the stay at home order did exactly what it was supposed to do - slow down the spread so we had a chance to find and produce protective equipment and ventilators, staff up hospitals etc.

MN-Born-n-Raised subscribes to the theory that we are all going to get the virus eventually, so let's just get it over with quickly.

[Bates419]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Meh- the 15 minute tests even before coronavirus we’re not a whole lot better than a “magic 8-ball” as far as accuracy, the new ones haven’t been vetted at all & the FDA has pretty much completely abdicated it’s responsibility for oversight. Plus, they’ve handily put liability limits on manufacturers - so they can ship whatever Chinese garbage they can produce without repercussions. Months or years from now the public is going to be really really mad about the billions spent on inaccurate tests that probably enhanced the spread of this. The first people who got the unreliable tests were the ones who had the capability to spread it the worst.

Im Canadian, we now have 15 minute tests approved and made in Canada.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by Bates419

I don't recall mentioning keeping the economy closed in my post. And new tests give a result in 15 minutes.

"If you don't test, quarantine, and trace this virus could go for awhile."
This is what you said.
This takes a lot of time (doesn't matter if the test is instant).

This keeps the economy closed.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

??

If a community has 3% positive antibodies, then the stay at home order did exactly what it was supposed to do - slow down the spread so we had a chance to find and produce protective equipment and ventilators, staff up hospitals etc.

I'm saying that unless we want to stay isolated for another year before a COVID shot is developed, staying in place is pushing out the inevitable. Yea, waiting for more PPE to arrive is a good thing. But when you open the spigot, 97% of the people are going to overrun the hospitals. So the only thing that has changed is people are losing income, getting fatter, slapping their kids and wives around more, etc. Because it was delayed in rural areas, basically, nobody has any antibodies. Let's compare that to say San Fran or LA. 20% have been exposed and the hospitals (albeit stressed) are keeping up.

So let's "open up MN". Guess what, in 4-6 months, a rush will happen on the infrastructure. What was gained? Maybe a few more ventilators and some make-shift PPE's?