Covid virus in phoenix (Mesa, Glendale: mover, heat pump, theatres)

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by Hal Roach

I suppose the VA "study" was more accurate.

VA study? What does that have to do with the video that was removed for posting flawed data, to the point that two large physicians groups came out to rebuke it?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by belgirl

Some studies are now saying that its probably closer to 0.1% - same death rate as the flu.

Yep, that's what I posted. What we don't know is how people experience permanent damage after they are released. From organ failures, strokes (from clots), lung damage etc. Obviously much more with COVID than the flu.

[Hal Roach]

[mod cut - no politics]

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

True. Excluding large USA international cities, I suspect a fraction of the people here have been exposed to the virus. What, 3 to 5 percent? I know. A lot more in NYC. Meanwhile, Sweden is well on their way to herd immunity. We are hiding under rocks while they face it head on. So long as their hospitals are not overrun, they are doing it a lot better.

Here in the States, we are acting as if the death rate is 3.5%. It’s probably closer than .1% or as high as .4%. So free up the healthy and get the ball rolling.. NOW. Use their cautious approach. Now if people with immune deficiencies and other risk factor(s) try out their luck, they are going to get themselves in trouble. The longer we wait, the longer we push out the inevitable: more people are going to die unless we wait for a vaccine.

We won't know what the best strategy is until the history books are written, and even then we might not know. You are making a lot of assumptions. At this point we don't even know what the rate of reinfection is, nor how significant herd immunity might be.

As of today there is no evidence that Sweden's approach is the best. It might be, but until their rate of new cases drops to a low level we can't even make a reasonable guess. Meanwhile, New Zealand has taken the opposite approach of a hard lock down. After five weeks their rate of new cases is close to zero and they are starting to open up a lot of their economy already. Again, too early to tell. But these two countries will make for an interesting comparison.

Here in AZ we are almost a month into this half-arsed stay at home thing, with plenty of people not complying and no enforcement that I've seen. A couple of our neighbors are having parties every weekend, and every time we've gone out to walk our dogs we see kids' football practice happening and groups of people not following the guidelines. Arizona's rate of new cases continues to climb, and we're arguably in a worse spot than at the beginning of April for taking such a laissez-faire approach.

The confidence of the public is paramount. I've said this before in one of the other threads. Without that confidence, many people are not going to go to a restaurant, get on an airplane, go to a ballgame, etc. It's quite simple to understand, but so many people are choosing to ignore this basic sociological fact.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by hikernut

We won't know what the best strategy is until the history books are written, and even then we might not know. You are making a lot of assumptions. At this point we don't even know what the rate of reinfection is, nor how significant herd immunity might be.

As of today there is no evidence that Sweden's approach is the best. It might be, but until their rate of new cases drops to a low level we can't even make a reasonable guess. Meanwhile, New Zealand has taken the opposite approach of a hard lock down. After five weeks their rate of new cases is close to zero and they are starting to open up a lot of their economy already. Again, too early to tell. But these two countries will make for an interesting comparison.

Here in AZ we are almost a month into this half-arsed stay at home thing, with plenty of people not complying and no enforcement that I've seen. A couple of our neighbors are having parties every weekend, and every time we've gone out to walk our dogs we see kids' football practice happening and groups of people not following the guidelines. Arizona's rate of new cases continues to climb, and we're arguably in a worse spot than at the beginning of April for taking such a laissez-faire approach.

The confidence of the public is paramount. I've said this before in one of the other threads. Without that confidence, many people are not going to go to a restaurant, get on an airplane, go to a ballgame, etc. It's quite simple to understand, but so many people are choosing to ignore this basic sociological fact.

How do you figure this.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

How do you figure this.

Today's numbers from Maricopa were pretty bad compared to what looked like a decline over the past few days. Then again, there is this pattern where the numbers jump on Monday and Tuesday and then decline over the week probably from reporting patterns. In any case we are not at the first "gate" in the CDC guidance. Most states that are opening are not either and I expect Ducey to announce some loosening in his presser today. Americans, and Arizonans, will not make the sacrifices to bring this under control quickly so it will drag on for months.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Today's numbers from Maricopa were pretty bad compared to what looked like a decline over the past few days. Then again, there is this pattern where the numbers jump on Monday and Tuesday and then decline over the week probably from reporting patterns. In any case we are not at the first "gate" in the CDC guidance. Most states that are opening are not either and I expect Ducey to announce some loosening in his presser today. Americans, and Arizonans, will not make the sacrifices to bring this under control quickly so it will drag on for months.

Not the question. The rate and being worse of than early April was the question.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by hikernut

We won't know what the best strategy is until the history books are written, and even then we might not know. You are making a lot of assumptions. At this point we don't even know what the rate of reinfection is, nor how significant herd immunity might be.

We already know that about 55 times more people have been infected and have antibodies already versus people who get sick. That's only about 2 week old info. THAT IS A GAME CHANGER! And we statistically know who is dying more than others. So quarantine the highest risk while having people do a hybrid amount of social distancing. Also, wash your hands like made, don't rub your face and the new cases should stay manageable. Ramp up testing to see when hot spots are pending and put out the "ambers" accordingly.

Now if you want more precise information, then you are going to risk decimate the world economy. Oh, that right.... We won't know that until the history books are written. Fair enough. But we are playing with fire right now. I'm hear to tell you that I'm on the frontlines who are talking with the movers and the shakers. Rest assured when the dust settles, a lot of folks will be still laid off. And I'm not talking about the obvious vocations. Worse yet, the cost-benefit-analysis is not being discussed much. At 3.5% mortality rate and not knowing who is the victims are going to be DOES warrant a lot of panic and concern. But the people who SHOULD be concerned best educate themselves and take appropriate measures. Unless they are too damn stupid. Which I suspect includes a lot of people.

re: people not wanting to go out. So very true! So no, it's not going back to "normal" in the next year. But a lot has to do with getting conditioning to the new norm. Analogy: It's like saying people in Israel don't go out because they are worried about getting shelled or killed. They adapted. And health(ier) people, statistically speaking, are going to be fine. Waiting to be 100% convinced might be catastrophic.

All that said, each region of the country should apply things differently. I'm speaking of the PHX area. Not NYC or _____________.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Burning Madolf

Not the question. The rate and being worse of than early April was the question.

Same RATE throughout April when you smooth the curve. It moved from about 5% to 4% growth rate. I suppose that was the goal - flatten the curve. It is certainly not going away. The numbers are several days old though, so we will see if the heat wave did anything over the next few days.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Same RATE throughout April when you smooth the curve. It moved from about 5% to 4% growth rate. I suppose that was the goal - flatten the curve. It is certainly not going away. The numbers are several days old though, so we will see if the heat wave did anything over the next few days.

Again, this is why I asked how do you figure? Specifically. Was the poster I asked just repeating or did they actually calculate like poster Android has done in his spreadsheet?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...u0o/edit#gid=0