Covid virus in phoenix (hotels, school districts, compensation)

[yukon]

Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64

The people you infect around you might not feel the same way

You took Autism's quote out of context. You left off,

"That being said it would be stupid for me to put myself in high risk situations where I might get infected and then might infect others including family members."

The part you omitted shows he/she does realize he/she could be a risk to others. Totally changes the delivery of the first part of the statement.

[yukon]

Originally Posted by autism360

If what you/they are saying is true then why is the death rate so low ?

Arizona currently has 773 confirmed cases and 15 reported deaths as of 3.29.20 from the wuhan covid virus

It is very sad that we can no longer trust most of the news to provide us truthful information I stopped listening to the AZ RePublic years ago and I never trusted the Phoenix New Times. Most of the news these days is fake. I will pick and choose who I will trust for news and as long as the death rate is low here in AZ we are in good shape since it continues to reinforce the truthful position that 99% of those infected recover.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...state-by-state

Our "death rate" is low because we are #50 in the country in testing. No tests, no data to report. Ego no deaths.

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by yukon

You took Autism's quote out of context. You left off,

"That being said it would be stupid for me to put myself in high risk situations where I might get infected and then might infect others including family members."

The part you omitted shows he/she does realize he/she could be a risk to others. Totally changes the delivery of the first part of the statement.

He edited it after I responded. See the editing time under the post?

I quoted the whole thing as it was. He changed the delivery after I responded. I presume he’s a big boy and can fight his battles.

[lostsoul359]

Originally Posted by yukon

Our "death rate" is low because we are #50 in the country in testing. No tests, no data to report. Ego no deaths.

Why?

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by yukon

Our "death rate" is low because we are #50 in the country in testing. No tests, no data to report. Ego no deaths.

No. The absolute number of deaths which is at 17 at the moment has nothing to do with testing. It is low, but right on the curve which projects nearly 2000 deaths in a couple weeks time.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by autism360

If what you/they are saying is true then why is the death rate so low ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...state-by-state

For starters, the ever-changing data had a much higher mortality rate. It was inaccurate. Here is a must-watch video. It's from the Stanford epidemiologist that penned the NYT op-ed piece. To everyone reading, watch this video! You are going to feel a lot better and a whole lot closer to what is actually going on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEr4...ature=emb_logo The answer has to do basic statistics in combination with areas that international destinations.

As to why we haven't observed the spike YET. I'll give you my educated guess. The death rate and hospital business is low here because in PHX:

1. We are not a international destination. So we are going to get a later start. WA, CA, NY all are more international flights and they were up to bat 1st.
2. We DO have built-in "flattening of the curve" situations. As in:
a. We are more spread out in the burbs. Of course, that helps. We are all going to eventually be infected. I bet the surge won't be as steep.
b. Dyer climates kill the virus faster. Sorry, you are still going to see the virus. And what I just typed might not be significantly worth mentioning. But the half-life of the virus will be less.
c. Spots like southern FL have a lot of NYC visitors who have infected others. The Miami area (where they often hang) is a hot spot for the virus as we speak.
3. I predict people in the PHX area (NOT the rest of the state) are healthier (less body fat) than other areas. Less body fat == less high blood pressure, less gout, less heart disease, less type 2 diabetes, etc. Scroll down here to see a map of the country with Type 2 diabetes. https://www.businessinsider.com/map-...-the-us-2017-7 Notice how PHX is on the lower end? Not so much other poorer areas of the state. Poor and heavy-weight states are going to get pummeled. Look at the Type2 ratings. Later, watch how that correlates with the death toll. Poor (less than ideal hospital resources) +Type2 (which often includes high BP and overweight)==screwed.

That all said, I'll take 10:1 odds that our hospital beds will be FULL.
1. We have a lot more old people. As I said before, there are 25,000 retirees just in Sun City Grand in Surprise. It's a very key reason why I am quarantine myself. Do you think I'm going to get a bed when the crap hits the fan? Until the surge is over (and it WILL overwhelm our hospitals), I'm ordering all of my groceries, cooking at home, working from home etc). Honestly, it's a WONDERFUL time to have a big home with tall ceilings and all of the creature comforts. I can personally last 2-3 months doing what I am doing and not bat an eye. I digress.

2. Our "live and let live" mentality (it's the culture) will help spread the virus here in AZ fast. I did a curb pick up at Sam's on Saturday. I hit "I'm here" on my app, my trunk was open, and they dropped in my prepaid food. But the place was packed. People were not "social distancing". They are fricken DIMWITS for not even trying. I digress.

In summary, I suspect our peak won't be as steep. State by state, the hospitals will be tested to the max. The more proactive the state is, the better. I have to say, AZ isn't proactive. So the chances of dodging allocated beds are nearly impossible.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by autism360

I am elderly with respiratory issues but am not afraid because even if I die I have a relationship with Jesus. That being said it would be stupid for me to put myself in high risk situations where I might get infected and then might infect others including family members.

For starters, the death toll isn't showing to be at even 1%. Probably half of that or less. It wasn't "FAKE news" relating to the 3.5%. Rather, the press didn't understand the power of the numerator. Hey, reporters plus a lot of people are really bad at understanding basic math and statistics.

You being male, older and needing a respirator, are significant risks. If you are overweight, a smoker and autoimmune diseases or high BO (60% of males over 60 are) will add to the risks. Let's say the overall mortality rate is 0.5%. You cannot say you have a 99.5% of skating though. Because someone under 20 might have a 0.001 percent of dying. So someone is going to pick up the slack to hit that overall 0.5% number.

Someone with 3 or 4 risk factors might have a 30% chance of landing in the hospital. And it's known that without a ventilator and if you need it, the mortality rate is 60% in that group. My point being, there is no point in being in denial. If I was in your shoes, I'd turn my attention to staying at home until after the surge and the eventual allocation of hospital resources.

Personally, I have high BP, 55 years old, and could stand to lose 10 pounds +. I'm feeling some risk. Percentage-wise, a lot less risk as we all learn more. At 3.5%, I got semi-screwed. BUt I'm only looking at ACTUAL data and science while applying common sense to the topic. Not regurgitating the term "FAKE news" or reading and parroting conspiracy theories like "Wuhan Chinese Virus". That adds zero value. We have all heard the saying: "We are what we eat". So true. In 2020, "We are who we google!"

Personally, I am not going ANYWHERE until I lose 15 pounds (lost 5 already in 2 weeks). I'm going to get off my BP meds by working out 2x a day and eating healthy. I will remove two risk factors. Worse case, I'll look better when I die. lol You too should stay put as much as possible. I'm talking about not going to a store other than places like Sam's Club (they have an app where they put the groceries and supplies in your trunk). You should hibernate until the peak hospital demand pass. Let the docs learn the hard way on others as to what works best. Because based on your risk factors, you would be considered in the highest risk group. Stay safe and don't be in denial about the hospital demand.

Option 2. Fantasize about you haveing a 99.5% chance of personally getting through this and not believing that the hospitals will be overrun.

[autism360]

The esteemed Dr fauci is on record saying Covid is not as bad as the seasonal flu.

Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine: Coronavirus less severe than the flu

4
In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5
report
mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with
laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had
a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high
as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This
suggests that the overall clinical consequences
of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to
those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has
a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a
pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957
and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS
or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of
9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

https://gellerreport.com/wp-content/...NEJM_COVID.pdf

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by autism360

The esteemed Dr fauci is on record saying Covid is not as bad as the seasonal flu.

Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine: Coronavirus less severe than the flu



https://gellerreport.com/wp-content/...NEJM_COVID.pdf

Are you suggesting that as experts learn from the data, they are not allowed to change their minds? Am I missing your point?

[autism360]

As of 3.30.20 Arizona has 919 reported cases of Covid and 17 deaths

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...state-by-state

So far, 80% of patients experience a mild form of the illness, which can include a fever and pneumonia, and many of these cases require little to no medical intervention. That being said, elderly people and those with underlying conditions such as diabetes or heart and lung issues are the most vulnerable