Covid virus in phoenix (Maricopa: transplants, living, groceries)

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by autism360

So now you do not believe the media is killing people? Please make up your mind

I never stated that to begin with. Let’s drop the childish games. It was you that said “the media” is the cause of the overrun hospitals and that Chinese drones are spying on people in the night. The mental gymnastics that one would have to go through to convince themselves of such nonsense is wild.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

No question in my mind. I am pretty certain I would survive a bout of the flu. I have no idea how hard covid will hit me. And it will. It will get most of us especially given the poor federal and Arizona state response to it. When it does, it will kill us at a rate 10 times higher than the flu would.

How do you know COVID 19 will hit you or most of us here? Isn't AZ supposed to be nearly immune from this stuff because of our wonderful warm, sunny weather? And you being in a detached house in an exurban community should provide protection because you're separated from the bulk of the population, right?

In reality, I think you're being overly paranoid. I understand the need to take precautions and practice good hygiene, but you sound like one of those doomsday religious cult whackos. The most devastating effect this is having so far (and will have for the foreseeable future) is on the economy and our freedoms.

[fluffythewondercat]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

How do you know COVID 19 will hit you or most of us here? Isn't AZ supposed to be nearly immune from this stuff because of our wonderful warm, sunny weather?

So far the experts think it may follow the November-to-April seasonality of the flu but no one's certain about that yet.

Warmer Weather May Slow, Not Halt, Coronavirus

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/h...ronavirus.html

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

How do you know COVID 19 will hit you or most of us here? Isn't AZ supposed to be nearly immune from this stuff because of our wonderful warm, sunny weather? And you being in a detached house in an exurban community should provide protection because you're separated from the bulk of the population, right?

In reality, I think you're being overly paranoid. I understand the need to take precautions and practice good hygiene, but you sound like one of those doomsday religious cult whackos. The most devastating effect this is having so far (and will have for the foreseeable future) is on the economy and our freedoms.

Not so fast...
1. Warm weather: : Remember, summer (southern hemisphere) just ended in warmer locations like Australia and the virus spread. That said, there is talk (with not a lot of science yet) that warm and humid weather might slow down how fast it spreads. As a reminder, the news sell "clicks". If "hope" == clicks, you get articles like these https://www.livescience.com/warmer-w...us-spread.html. But you are right, we don't know yet. The initial results said no. But now, it's circulating that it might. A warm season is not just going to stop. But it might flatten the curve some. And if it slows down the transmission, it will kick back in gear in 7 short months. But it might be the humity versus the heat? Or maybe it doesn't change the numbers much. So instead of every three days the spread double, it's every 5 days. Still, it's going to rip through this country.

2. Next, Ponderosa cannot take the .1 or 1% or _______ mortality rate and calculate the probability of him getting deathly ill or dying. For starters, he is male. At best case, males are 20% statistically more susceptible. We are guessing why. But it might be the immune system differences. Next, he is older. Hopefully be know people realize that our immune system deteriorates as we age. If he smokes (or smoked), that's another strike against him. If he is like 60% of the males over 60 years old, he is on high blood pressure meds which have shown to be a big strike against them. If he is overweight (BMI of 25%), that's another huge risk. I'm going to assume he isn't type 2 diabetic. IF he is, the people on the front lines see a trend. Males, overweight, high blood pressure, and immune issues are the perfect storm for getting seriously ill. AND, if the beds are full, statistically he is F'ed. THAT is probably his point.

And so we are clear, it's not exactly the best way to go: drowning in your bloody fluids while your hands are tied down so you don't pull out the tube down your throat (people think the tube is drowning them versus fluids in their lungs). AND, if there is an allocation of beds or equipment, the medical community will have to make some allocation decisions. Sorry, your bed or ventilator needs to go to this 40 year old. NYC is already starting to "share" ventilators. Now do you see why he might not be "paranoid"?

3. There are two very different things about COVID 19 versus the "flu". This one lands deep in your lungs much more than the flu. It's why so many people are going to the ER. And we all don't have antibodies built up. So this ramp-up is exponential. That is NEVER the case of the flu. The infection rate with the flu is a mere 7% a year because we already have similar antibodies AND we have a flu shot. It's going to be MUCH higher with this one. Many of which is be pretty mild. Unless you are male, overweight, on high BP, smoked, and older. That's a completely different number. AND, he has had the flu many times in his life. Including getting his mom antibody experience when he was born. It's why the 1918 flu version died down. People born following the 1918 pandemic were born with the antibodies.

So as so many people have posted time and time again, assume we are ALL eventually going to be run into the virus. You can hide for 6 months. But when you come out of hiding in 6 months, it might be your turn. That's the reality. And he may already be screwed. He is a sharp guy, I bet he knows that. And handwashing and social distancing is only mitigating risks. i.e., It reduces the probability of getting it. There are still real risks of going out, staying 6 feet away, and washing your hands to perfection every single moment. Meaning, the advise is FAR from bulletproof.


Now there is a legitimate debate about where more damage is done. Overwhelming the hospitals to the point where a lot more deaths happen versus killing the economy. Business decisions are made ALL THE time when it comes to death. Or who gets what resources (like a transplant) etc. But 1st, people have to stop being so ignorant (defined and not informed) by calling it the "flu". AND, there SHOULD be a debate on how these numbers were modeled. It's called peer-reviewed. And I fully realize that our experts (and they really are experts) are biased and tend to suggest worse case situations.

Here is the reality. To date, nearly all of the people who have died were already going to die in the USA from this virus. And this might be a .1 percent death toll or 1% (I HIGHLY doubt it will be even 2%). Any way you slice it, a lot of others are going to have some lung damage and maybe some organ damage. Whatever the total death toll ends up at, it will be highly influenced if the ER's / ICU's are just extremely busy. That's the whole fricken debate in a nutshell. But let's stop calling someone who has done their due diligence "paranoid religious wackjob" when I suspect he could have written a similar accurate post.

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

How do you know COVID 19 will hit you or most of us here? Isn't AZ supposed to be nearly immune from this stuff because of our wonderful warm, sunny weather? And you being in a detached house in an exurban community should provide protection because you're separated from the bulk of the population, right?

In reality, I think you're being overly paranoid. I understand the need to take precautions and practice good hygiene, but you sound like one of those doomsday religious cult whackos. The most devastating effect this is having so far (and will have for the foreseeable future) is on the economy and our freedoms.

For the people that this is impacting, the respiratory ailments and permanent lung damage are alarming. Can’t be too cautious.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

I never stated that to begin with. Let’s drop the childish games. It was you that said “the media” is the cause of the overrun hospitals and that Chinese drones are spying on people in the night. The mental gymnastics that one would have to go through to convince themselves of such nonsense is wild.

People are walking this planet and really struggle with basic science and common sense. My SIL asked my son if her friends dog should be wearing a mask. Oh. The dog is wearing one now. There is an argument that can put forth in letting nature take its course.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Politics aside, a write-up on the worst, better, and best-case scenarios. A good read https://www.foxnews.com/health/how-l...last-in-the-us

[Ponderosa]

Lots of snowbirds are hanging around because they think things are going to be better here than "back home". They don't realize that AZ's numbers are influenced by an almost total lack of testing. The state health dept told docs yesterday to stop testing, because supplies are too low for that. Lots of snowbirds are gonna regret their decision.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Lots of snowbirds are hanging around because they think things are going to be better here than "back home". They don't realize that AZ's numbers are influenced by an almost total lack of testing. The state health dept told docs yesterday to stop testing, because supplies are too low for that. Lots of snowbirds are gonna regret their decision.

I won't be in the "lots" category. Costco.com delivers food and supplies. Wallmart.com delivers and the list goes on.

So long as I have food, I will work out inside, and go for bike rides and walks. I probably have two solid months to hunker down and a lot will be learned (what antibiotics work best, best practices that the ER docs are discussing on their 30,000 person Facebook group etc). Our son promised to fly to wherever we are to help either one of us to get our needed mind share. Just remember, without an advocate healthcare in this country is so-so. Let alone this crisis. Still, that might not be good enough and I fall, victim. If things get crazy, we will point our car towards northern MN. But we are remote which requires going into infested stores. So with all of the trade-offs and how I am preparing, I think I am in better shape staying put. I won’t be infecting a sole.

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

People are walking this planet and really struggle with basic science and common sense. My SIL asked my son if her friends dog should be wearing a mask. Oh. The dog is wearing one now. There is an argument that can put forth in letting nature take its course.

Ha! I was thinking that it would be nice if we could let Darwinism handle all these nut jobs, but unfortunately, they're then out there infected others. It does make a strong case for the mandated protection of those too stupid to protect themselves though.