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It's looking more and more like gold's glory days are behind it - with gold prices on an apparent downward trajectory, it's now given up all the gains it made since Dec of 2010 and many analysts now expect it to end up where it was in the middle of 2009 - in effect, giving up virtually all the gains it made during the Great Recession. As it is, the S&P 500 has now outperformed gold over the last year, last 3 years and last 10 years. Only the 5-year term shows gold with a SLIGHT price gain advantage over the S&P 500 (and that will be gone too if gold drops another 100 points or so).
More to the point however, the US dollar has NOT crashed - the expectation of which was likely THE reason for gold's rise back then to begin with. Now that's becoming more obvious that the US dollar is NOT going to collapse (US economy well into recovery, US deficit on the way down) folks are realizing that there is no real upside to owning gold.
Bad news for gold is good news for the US - and lately gold has been experiencing not much else but bad news.
Ken
As soon as north Korea launches a missile price will head up. Personally I'm buying while it is lower
Your posts are like the rantings of an obsessive who (for some bizarre reason) can't handle the fact that some people recognize the value of a globally recognized asset of wealth preservation.
This is funny because its the so-called "gold bugs" who are stereotyped as being off the reservation and tin foil hatted!
First, I'd suggest you calm down...no one is forcing you to buy gold or silver.
Second, if you are going to make posts with such inflammatory titles your going to have to expect rational people to come along and refute your points (such as they are).
So if you'd like to hold a rational discussion then fine but, geez, you've got to take a breath and realize that those of us who understand the physical gold market aren't going to break into your account and convert your paper bonds into tangible assets. So stop worrying.
By the way, I'd love it if you can help me out with something:
Could you link to some of your posts talking about gold as it ran up from the low hundreds to near $2000?
Thanks...I'll be waiting.
You are confusing my posts with my LOGIC.
My posts may be emphatic, but they are based on experience, history and logic. I just don't like seeing people being taken advantage of simply because they gullible and lack a knowledge of history. I've been trying to warn people for several years now, but folks like you just don't seem to want to LISTEN. But you know, my conscience is clear - I tried to warn people I've seen all this play out before and that they REALLY need to be CAREFUL.
Personally, I think a lot of the people pushing gold are crooks simply spreading disinformation to confuse and mislead the uneducated and fearful. And you know what? It WORKED - for a while at lest (and apparently is STILL WORKING for many of you folks).
Nothing I can do about that. You can lead a wingnut to knowledge, but you can't make him think.
Regarding my earlier posts on the subject:
From July 9th, 2009:
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
Really?
In the early 1980's gold prices - after skyrocketing to nearly $900/ounce fell by roughly half - where it stayed until around 2004 (that's 20 years of practically no gains - after taking a 50% hit).
So, are you claiming that asset prices dropped by 50% in the early 80's and never increased during the next 20 years?
The fact is, gold was superhyped by folks wanting to take your money and when the price collapsed, a whole lot of foolish investors lost their shirts. Combine that massive loss with a 20 year period of virtually NO gains and you have an investment that pales in comparison to the stock market (which - even after the recent collapse - increased 8 fold in that time).
The fact is, dispite the claims of the gold mongers, gold has risks just like any other investment.
That's because gold and silver prices are largely driven by speculators - and most of THOSE speculators are folks that think like YOU (ie that the economy will collapse). As it becomes more and more apparent that they are wrong, they'll begin selling and then you better hope you are not hoarding a bunch of gold because (just like in the early 1980's - when it neared $900/ounce) gold prices will likely collapse (in the early 1980's it went from near $900/ounce to around $300/ounce in just a couple of months).
Crash doesn't mean "0" - quit making up your OWN definitions. By YOUR definition the stock market never "crashed" in 1929 because the DOW was never reduced to "0" and the NASDAQ didn't crash either because it too was never reduced to "0". Get a clue and quit living in your own fantasy world where YOU make up the definition and the reality. You say gold has never been reduced to "0" - so what? The S&P index fund has never been reduced to "0" either. Your definition of a good investment is something that's never been reduced to "0"? I got news for you - that's not a very good selling point. I don't want something that "will never be '0'". I want something that will GROW.
Regarding the gold bubble collapse of 1980 - yeah gold has done well the last 10 years or so (better than the market - but then again, that's not hard considering the market sucked over that time). My question is how long did it take gold to recovery after the gold collapse of 1980?
Try nearly 30 years.
It took gold nearly 30 years just to get back to EVEN - not to gain in value, just to get back to EVEN - and taking inflation into account it's STILL not even back to EVEN.
As I said. Gold is commodity.
It is NOT guaranteed to gain value.
It can climb.
It can fall.
It can stay down after a fall for a long, long time.
From March 23, 2012 (as it turned out, the gold peak was already past by then):
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
The "Doom and Gloom" crowd has been saying for the last couple of years that the stock market was going to crash back down to new lows, the economy was going to go back into free fall again, the US dollar was headed for collapse and that hyperinflation was on the way - and that gold was going to become the new defactor currancy of the world. Well, guess what folks? NONE of that has happened (Gee what a surprise - NOT!).
The stock market has doubled in the last 3 years, the economy continues to improve, the dollar is doing just fine, hyperinflation is nowhere in sight, and gold losing it's luster.
Who'd a' thunk it?
“Sentiment towards gold is as low as it has been for many years, possibly since the rally started,” said Kamal Naqvi, head of commodity investor sales at Credit Suisse. “For virtually the first time this cycle, buying gold is a contrarian trade.”
You are confusing my posts with my LOGIC.
My posts may be emphatic, but they are based on experience, history and logic. I just don't like seeing people being taken advantage of simply because they gullible and lack a knowledge of history. I've been trying to warn people for several years now, but folks like you just don't seem to want to LISTEN. But you know, my conscience is clear - I tried to warn people I've seen all this play out before and that they REALLY need to be CAREFUL.
Personally, I think a lot of the people pushing gold are crooks simply spreading disinformation to confuse and mislead the uneducated and fearful. And you know what? It WORKED - for a while at lest (and apparently is STILL WORKING for many of you folks).
Nothing I can do about that. You can lead a wingnut to knowledge, but you can't make him think.
Regarding my earlier posts on the subject:
From July 9th, 2009:
How many more do you want? As you can see, I saw this coming a LONG time ago (because I've seen it play out before).
Ken
So you joined the site when gold was around $650 but waited until 2009 when gold was around $900 to post your anti-gold rantings?
Why?
Was it not in a bubble before 2009?
...and, gee, I see gold is not back down to $800 or $900. What happened?
I thought it was a bubble that was bursting. When the Internet and Housing Bubbles burst the prices fell back to PRE-BUBBLE levels. But not gold...hmmm, interesting.
And, what...no comments about gold from 1999 - 2011? Why not?
I thought gold was a "terrible investment".
Look, let's face it...right now you are having the time of your life because of this TEMPORARY CORRECTION.
But your thesis depends on global QE and that is like building a patio deck on a house of cards.
Again I ask you...if gold has no intrinsic value then why hasn't it fallen down to AT LEAST 2009 levels (forget about 2003 levels)?
So you joined the site when gold was around $650 but waited until 2009 when gold was around $900 to post your anti-gold rantings?
Why?
Was it not in a bubble before 2009?
I didn't post about before 2009 because it wasn't UNTIL THEN that I started seeing all the stoooopid "better have gold because the US dollar will collapse" type threads.
...and, gee, I see gold is not back down to $800 or $900. What happened?
Give it time. I have no idea if gold will drop to $800. I'm pretty confident about $1,100 though - and several analysts have gone on record as targeting a gold price as low as $500.
I thought it was a bubble that was bursting. When the Internet and Housing Bubbles burst the prices fell back to PRE-BUBBLE levels. But not gold...hmmm, interesting.
What EXACTLY constitutes the "pre-bubble" level of something? - there IS no firm definition of that.
And, what...no comments about gold from 1999 - 2011? Why not?
I thought gold was a "terrible investment".
What? You think I posted EVERY thread I replied to about gold over the last 4 years? Those were just a few of them - and in fact I even TOLD you so.
Look, let's face it...right now you are having the time of your life because of this TEMPORARY CORRECTION.
If you think it's "temporary" keep buying. Time will tell if you are right. History has a way of repeating though, and I've seen this play out before.
But your thesis depends on global QE and that is like building a patio deck on a house of cards.
No it doesn't. QE will end within the next year or so - once the UE rate drops to 6.5% (now at 7.5% and falling).
Again I ask you...if gold has no intrinsic value then why hasn't it fallen down to AT LEAST 2009 levels (forget about 2003 levels)?
When did I EVER say it has "no intrinsic value"? Clearly you are in your own little reality - no wonder you don't see the danger in gold.
Regarding the 2009 levels - if and when it gets to that $1,100 level I'm expecting it to hit (along with several stock analysts who have gone on record as such) then it WILL be at that 2009 level - wiping out ALL the gains since the Great Recession - and that's NOT far away now (less than $300 when it's ALREADY dropped more than $500 from its' peak).
First you call gold a bubble then you claim not to know at what price gold would have to fall to be at "pre-bubble" levels.
You keep implying that gold will languish for decades based on the 1980s and 1990s as if the economic situation in the USA (and around the world) mirrors the economic situation then.
In fact, you ignore perhaps a BILLION people in China and India who are gaining wealth (especially compared to the 80s) and DON'T trust local banking officials. They have AND are buying physical metals like there is no tomorrow on any dip in price. That is their Social Security and savings account: gold.
And then consider the Sovereign Wealth Funds of places like Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Dubai.
They are under invested in gold compared to the high debt nations of Europe and North America.
As Europe and America sells gold to shore up balance sheets the SWFs scoop up most of the new supply tossed onto the market. Diversification away from the dollar is the long term trend.
You've got to think about WHY gold hasn't collapsed to 2003 prices if it is nothing but a bubble.
First you call gold a bubble then you claim not to know at what price gold would have to fall to be at "pre-bubble" levels.
Again WHAT constitutes the beginning of a bubble? - there IS no firm definition of WHEN a bubble begins - NONE, so how am I supposed to give you a firm price at what gold would have to fall to be at "pre-bubble" levels? My personal opinion is that once gold gets back to it's pre-great-recession value then the bubble has completely popped - but that's just a personal opinion.
Did gold rise before that?
Sure - but so did the NASDAQ before the dot-com bubble. In fact it rose VERY RAPIDLY from the mid-80s to the mid-90's and even AFTER the dot-com bubble burst it STILL held on to THOSE gains (it simply gave up the massive gains it made from about 1997 to 2000) - so gold doesn't have to give up all it's gains since it's "flatline" days in the 1980's and 1990's to revert to it's "pre-bubble" levels.
When the Internet and Housing Bubbles burst the prices fell back to PRE-BUBBLE levels. But not gold...hmmm, interesting.
Again, WHAT constitutes the "PRE-BUBBLE level"? There is NO formal agreement on when a bubble begins. Opinions on when the housing bubble began vary wildly- from 1997 to 2002 - and though you CLAIM that home price fell to their "PRE-BUBBLE level" the fact is, home prices did NOT FALL to 2002 level prices and fell to NO WHERE NEAR 1997 level prices so your contention is just plain wrong.
You keep implying that gold will languish for decades based on the 1980s and 1990s as if the economic situation in the USA (and around the world) mirrors the economic situation then.
The economic situation today IS very different from 1980, BUT the rationale for buying gold (ie that there will be high inflation and collapsing dollar) that the gold hawkers use to "sell" people on gold is the SAME as it was then. It was wrong then, and it's wrong now.
In fact, you ignore perhaps a BILLION people in China and India who are gaining wealth (especially compared to the 80s) and DON'T trust local banking officials. They have AND are buying physical metals like there is no tomorrow on any dip in price. That is their Social Security and savings account: gold.
Well, if that's TRUE, then gold prices shouldn't have dropped nearly 30% in the past 2 years should it? I suspect folks are selling you a 'bill of goods" when the talk up just how much gold the Chinese people are buying.
And then consider the Sovereign Wealth Funds of places like Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Dubai.
They are under invested in gold compared to the high debt nations of Europe and North America.
As Europe and America sells gold to shore up balance sheets the SWFs scoop up most of the new supply tossed onto the market. Diversification away from the dollar is the long term trend.
You've got to think about WHY gold hasn't collapsed to 2003 prices if it is nothing but a bubble.
Again, there is NO firm definition of what level a collapse needs to fall to to constitute the bursting of a bubble.
You shouldn't talk about bubbles if you aren't prepared to defend your definition of a bubble.
Ask the people of the real estate bubble cities if the real estate values didn't get down to 1990s levels.
And I notice that when people can't break Dr. Paul's arguments they just resort to personal attacks on the man himself.
I ask again...if gold is just a worthless hunk of metal then why can't the price get down to pre-bubble levels (you brought up the idea of a bubble not me) and why would central banks waste BILLIONS of dollars holding it y'know for "tradition"?
You shouldn't talk about bubbles if you aren't prepared to defend your definition of a bubble.
Ask the people of the real estate bubble cities if the real estate values didn't get down to 1990s levels.
And I notice that when people can't break Dr. Paul's arguments they just resort to personal attacks on the man himself.
I ask again...if gold is just a worthless hunk of metal then why can't the price get down to pre-bubble levels (you brought up the idea of a bubble not me) and why would central banks waste BILLIONS of dollars holding it y'know for "tradition"?
LOL
You are arguing the symantics of the word "bubble" while gold crashes. If YOU choose to not call it a bubble, go right ahead, but pretty much everyone else in the financial community KNOWS it was a bubble and are calling it such.
Regarding real estate prices - I don't need to ask what real estate prices fell to - the info is easily online. Prices fell to 2004 levels. THAT'S a FACT - NOT 1990s levels.
In regards to "worthless hunk of metal" - again, can you not READ? Where did I EVER call it "worthless"?
And you can deny that gold is a collapsing bubble all you want - it won't stop gold from collapsing. Your argument is the equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ears and yelling "na, na, na" so you can drown out the truth. As I write this gold is down ANOTHER $24/ounce (1.79%). It just keeps falling and falling and falling. As I've said, I expect it will collapse down to a "pre-stock-market-crash" level of $1,100/ounce (a bit more than $250/ounce away - having already fallen close to $550/ounce) - thus it will give up ALL the gains it made since the stock market collapse and the economy tanked - maybe even more.
But keep holding on to that gold - remember, it will never be worth "nothing".
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 05-17-2013 at 10:07 AM..
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I got news for you - that's not a very good selling point. I don't want something that "will never be '0'". I want something that will GROW.
