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The "conventional wisdom" is that gold is a useless metal that has no real value and serves no purpose except for insane preppers.
If investors ignored the conventional wisdom more often there would be a lot more rich people around.
It's not a useless metal, but a lot of you gold bugs base your decisions on extreme events. Just like any investment, you need to know when to go in and get out.
It's not a useless metal, but a lot of you gold bugs base your decisions on extreme events. Just like any investment, you need to know when to go in and get out.
I know well enough about bonds and interest rates, and WHO said anything about "bond price remaining elevated forever"?
But hey, if you believe the data is "firmly on your side" then buy all you want. It's no skin off my nose. As I said, we can review this again in 3 months (or even sooner if there is a dramatic swing one way or the other) and see where gold sits then.
Stereotypes exist for a reason. But reading your posts it seems you don't have much confidence in America. Gold isn't different or special, it relies on market forces like anything else.
Again you have no idea what "long term" means I guess.
Three months?
If gold is at $200 or $3000 in three months it is still just a small period of time.
It won't be down for JUST 3 months. It will be down for YEARS - possible DECADES (just like last time). I only used "3 months" because it was a conveniently short time to review this post again - after that it can be reviewed again and again and again if you so desire.
And as an FYI - gold CONTINUES to tank - down ANOTHER $20 this morning alone as I post this. As I've already said many times here - it's not JUST me saying gold is tanking, MANY analysts have reached that decision. The fact is, UNLESS the US dollar crashes (as many gold were/are expecting it to) there is NOTHING to support gold anywhere near the prices it's at - and since it's looking increasingly unlike that the US dollar WILL tank, gold is tanking instead.
Now, you can continue to cling to the idea that the US dollar WILL collapse and drive gold sky high - and MAYBE you'll be right, but that's looking increasingly unlikely - which will be bad news for you, but good news for the US in general.
Most of the smart players have already gotten out of gold (here's yet another example):
...George Soros, founder and chairman of Soros Fund Management reduced his holdings of exchange-traded products backed by gold before a price plunge last month that saw the precious metal lose 12 percent in value.
A Securities and Exchange Commission filing for Soros Fund Management shows that Soros reduced his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust from 600,000 shares in December 31 to 530,900 by March 31. The stake is now valued at just below $82 million, according to the report...
Stereotypes exist for a reason. But reading your posts it seems you don't have much confidence in America. Gold isn't different or special, it relies on market forces like anything else.
To you "America" and "greedy politicians who love spending other people's money to grow personal political power" may be one and the same.
It won't be down for JUST 3 months. It will be down for YEARS - possible DECADES (just like last time). I only used "3 months" because it was a conveniently short time to review this post again - after that it can be reviewed again and again and again if you so desire.
And as an FYI - gold CONTINUES to tank - down ANOTHER $20 this morning alone as I post this. As I've already said many times here - it's not JUST me saying gold is tanking, MANY analysts have reached that decision. The fact is, UNLESS the US dollar crashes (as many gold were/are expecting it to) there is NOTHING to support gold anywhere near the prices it's at - and since it's looking increasingly unlike that the US dollar WILL tank, gold is tanking instead.
Now, you can continue to cling to the idea that the US dollar WILL collapse and drive gold sky high - and MAYBE you'll be right, but that's looking increasingly unlikely - which will be bad news for you, but good news for the US in general.
Most of the smart players have already gotten out of gold (here's yet another example):
...George Soros, founder and chairman of Soros Fund Management reduced his holdings of exchange-traded products backed by gold before a price plunge last month that saw the precious metal lose 12 percent in value.
A Securities and Exchange Commission filing for Soros Fund Management shows that Soros reduced his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust from 600,000 shares in December 31 to 530,900 by March 31. The stake is now valued at just below $82 million, according to the report...
A. Why do you keep saying that I said the dollar is going to crash?
And
B. Why do you keep posting anecdotal evidence based on a one day or one week move if you are truly focused long term?
Someone posted a long term chart and you completely brushed it aside.
I guess it's true that average people are unable to think long term.
If gold rebounds like it did before then I suspect you will get very, very quiet...again.
Why do you keep saying that I said the dollar is going to crash?
Gee, I don't know, maybe because you're posting videos of guys like Peter (the dollar will collapse) Schiff:
"The dollar will collapse, the dollar will collapse, the dollar will collapse" - the guy is a snake oil salesman.
Regarding me "posting anecdotal evidence based on a one day or one week move" - it's NOT a "one day or one week move" - gold peak TWO YEARS AGO - and has lost nearly 30% since then - and the collapse is accelerating. Furthermore this is NOT the first time this scenario has played out. It didn't end well for gold LAST TIME and it won't end well for gold THIS TIME.
The whole rationale for the gold rush was that the dollar would tank because of rising deficits and "endless money printing" and that consequently gold would SOAR. The problem with that theory is that the deficit is falling fast - so what does that do for the rationale for holding gold?
The smart investors now KNOW that rationale has failed and thus have bailed, leaving the less sophisticated mom and pop investors like yourself holding the bag. And yes, I KNOW the central banks are holding gold - they ALWAYS hold gold, it's not necessarily a sign of anything in particular.
You CLAIM that you are not basing your investments in gold on your politics yet you keep coming back to those "'greedy politicians who love spending other people's money to grow personal political power" so CLEARLY politics IS at the forefront of your mind on this issue. As I said earlier, that's a REALLY poor way to invest because you are investing based on EMOTION rather than what the data says.
Now, you can feel free to hold on to your collapsing gold - and who knows MAYBE it WILL come back. But, as I said, I've heard all your (and Peter Schiffs') arguments before (30+ years ago) and nothing came of them THEN and nothing will come of them NOW.
Is the deficit large? Yes, but it's SHRINKING.
Is the debt large? Yes, but as the deficit shrinks so will the upward pressure on the debt.
Futhermore NEITHER is unmanageable. We're already showing we can shrink the defict, because we've essentially cut it HALF in the last 5 years. And in regards to the debt, as a percentage of the total economy (ie GDP) we've had debt larger than this TWICE before - after WWI and after WWII and NEITHER case led to anything near "a collapse of the US dollar" so there's no reason to assume that will happen THIS TIME.
The gold hawkers sold you a bill of goods based on misinformation and bad logic - and folks like you bought it hook, line and sinker.
I KNOW you don't believe that, but that's what happened - as you will see as your gold holdings fall and STAY DOWN.
As I said, you can review this topic in 3 months, 6 months, 2 years, 5 years or whatever length of time you want. You are NOT going to see gold soar again for a long, long time.
Why do you keep saying that I said the dollar is going to crash?
Gee, I don't know, maybe because you're posting videos of guys like Peter (the dollar will collapse) Schiff:
"The dollar will collapse, the dollar will collapse, the dollar will collapse" - the guy is a snake oil salesman.
Regarding me "posting anecdotal evidence based on a one day or one week move" - it's NOT a "one day or one week move" - gold peak TWO YEARS AGO - and has lost nearly 30% since then - and the collapse is accelerating. Furthermore this is NOT the first time this scenario has played out. It didn't end well for gold LAST TIME and it won't end well for gold THIS TIME.
The whole rationale for the gold rush was that the dollar would tank because of rising deficits and "endless money printing" and that consequently gold would SOAR. The problem with that theory is that the deficit is falling fast - so what does that do for the rationale for holding gold?
The smart investors now KNOW that rationale has failed and thus have bailed, leaving the less sophisticated mom and pop investors like yourself holding the bag. And yes, I KNOW the central banks are holding gold - they ALWAYS hold gold, it's not necessarily a sign of anything in particular.
You CLAIM that you are not basing your investments in gold on your politics yet you keep coming back to those "'greedy politicians who love spending other people's money to grow personal political power" so CLEARLY politics IS at the forefront of your mind on this issue. As I said earlier, that's a REALLY poor way to invest because you are investing based on EMOTION rather than what the data says.
Now, you can feel free to hold on to your collapsing gold - and who knows MAYBE it WILL come back. But, as I said, I've heard all your (and Peter Schiffs') arguments before (30+ years ago) and nothing came of them THEN and nothing will come of them NOW.
Is the deficit large? Yes, but it's SHRINKING.
Is the debt large? Yes, but as the deficit shrinks so will the upward pressure on the debt.
Futhermore NEITHER is unmanageable. We're already showing we can shrink the defict, because we've essentially cut it HALF in the last 5 years. And in regards to the debt, as a percentage of the total economy (ie GDP) we've had debt larger than this TWICE before - after WWI and after WWII and NEITHER case led to anything near "a collapse of the US dollar" so there's no reason to assume that will happen THIS TIME.
The gold hawkers sold you a bill of goods based on misinformation and bad logic - and folks like you bought it hook, line and sinker.
I KNOW you don't believe that, but that's what happened - as you will see as your gold holdings fall and STAY DOWN.
As I said, you can review this topic in 3 months, 6 months, 2 years, 5 years or whatever length of time you want. You are NOT going to see gold soar again for a long, long time.
Ken
If anyone here is emotional, "Ken", its you.
Your posts are like the rantings of an obsessive who (for some bizarre reason) can't handle the fact that some people recognize the value of a globally recognized asset of wealth preservation.
This is funny because its the so-called "gold bugs" who are stereotyped as being off the reservation and tin foil hatted!
First, I'd suggest you calm down...no one is forcing you to buy gold or silver.
Second, if you are going to make posts with such inflammatory titles your going to have to expect rational people to come along and refute your points (such as they are).
So if you'd like to hold a rational discussion then fine but, geez, you've got to take a breath and realize that those of us who understand the physical gold market aren't going to break into your account and convert your paper bonds into tangible assets. So stop worrying.
By the way, I'd love it if you can help me out with something:
Could you link to some of your posts talking about gold as it ran up from the low hundreds to near $2000?
Thanks...I'll be waiting.
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